Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221848 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold high pressure will build into the region from the north tonight through Thursday. Warmer conditions will arrive this weekend as the high shifts offshore into the the Atlantic.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Wednesday... An upper level ridge over the central U.S. and a l/w trough along the eastern seaboard will funnel cold dry air into central NC tonight. This drier air already made evident by sfc dewpoints in the teens across the western Piedmont at 18Z. This drier air will continue to spread south and east through this evening. orographic induced high clouds will slowly fade/dissipate through early evening as the atmosphere aloft dries out and the winds field weakens. Sfc winds will remain 4-8kts after sunset, though should decouple after midnight. With the cold dry air mass in place and near calm sfc winds, should see temperatures drop into the upper 20s- lower 30s overnight. Patchy frost possible in the well sheltered areas though most places will see little if any frost due to the dry low level air mass.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM WEDNESDAY... Thursday, 850mb thermal trough overhead signals a day of well below normal temperatures. While skies will be sunny, the cold dry air mass deposited by the high pressure system will yield max temps in the low-mid 50s, a solid 10-12 degrees below normal. Thursday night, l/w trough will lift to the ne while the upper ridge will extend across our region. This set-up will maintain mostly clear skies and chilly overnight temperatures. Under clear skies and a light wind regime, temperatures will quickly fall after sunset with overnight temperatures generally near 30 to the lower 30s with the coldest temperatures across the far northeast Piedmont and the northern coastal plain.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 AM Wednesday... A warming trend is expected late week into the weekend as surface high pressure will be located off the southeast U.S. coast, with mid level ridging moving across the area from west to east. This will result in generally dry conditions from Friday into Saturday night, before the mid level ridge shifts to the east while a mid/upper level low moves east-northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region and eventually across the northeast U.S. while weakening late weekend into early next week. This will result in increasing chances for some isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few storms Sunday into Monday. However, with the main track of the system now expected to track well to the north of the area will keep pops in the chance category (with some locations across the south and east possibly remaining dry through the period). Temps will be mild, with highs in the 60s to near 70 Friday, to 70s to near/lower 80s for the weekend into early next week. The next southern stream s/w disturbance is expected to track east/northeastward across the country, possibly phasing with a northern stream trough on Tuesday over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. This will result in at least a small chance for showers and storms on Tuesday, but many question remain on timing and strength of the system remain. Regardless it appears the mild weather will continue through the forecast period, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Monday/... As of 135 PM Wednesday... High probability that VFR conditions will occur across central NC through 00Z Saturday. An area of high pressure will build into our area tonight, then settle overhead Thursday. This weather system will drift offshore Friday. Brisk northwest winds this afternoon will gradually subside to less than 10kts by sunset. The threat for MVFR visibility due to fog will increase early Saturday morning, and more so Sunday morning, as low level sw flow advects a warm, moist air mass into central NC. The approach of a low pressure system will increase the probability of MVFR ceilings as well as a few showers Sunday through Monday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS

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