Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010658 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 258 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY... A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY- CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS... ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS 69-72. -GIH && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS... POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY... THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS

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