Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 141757 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 155 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1055 AM MONDAY... THE 12Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION WITH A GOOD CAP BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALTHOUGH WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INCREASING VALUES...JUST BELOW AN INCH...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST WAS PROVIDING A MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. TO OUR WEST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE OFFSET UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS DECREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING IN CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AND HAVE INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS AS MOIST AND WARM AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP TO OUR WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME DIFFLUENCE TO OUR WEST AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SLIGHT 700MB COOLING ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THIS...ALTHOUGH THE RAP ALSO FORECASTS A MODEST INCREASE IN THOSE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE AROUND 400J/KG AND MLCAPE IN THHIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED ABOUT A DEGREE IN THE TRIAD DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND RAISED ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 DUE TO THINNER CLOUDS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THERE. E LOWEST KM AROUND 200J/KG...AND SOME LIFT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES...AS THE CAP ERODES ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY LATER...THIS COULD FOR A TIME INHIBIT MORE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS SCENARIO IS NOTED BY MORE THAN ONE WRF MODEL AS WELL AS IMPLIED BY RAP QPF. MOISTENING OF THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INCREASE CLOUD DEPTH AND ALLOW FOR LIFTING OVER A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA... HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LIFTING WILL STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT DUE TO ONGOING MOISTENING...STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS...AND PERIODIC DPVA IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN THE DEEP SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD...ONE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT...AND HOW THESE FEATURES EVOLVE/INTERACT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL MOST CERTAINLY AFFECT PRECIP CHANCES DOWNSTREAM IN CENTRAL NC...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECISE COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TONIGHT. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE...ROUGHLY A DEGREE...FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHS WERE RAISED ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE PERIODS OF THINNER CLOUDS AND MORE SUNLIGHT HITTING THE GROUND. A VERY MOIST AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR IN THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT. THOUGH QUITE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN...IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY... TUE/TUE NIGHT: EXPECT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NEAR 100% ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE NW PIEDMONT AND BY 00-03Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THEREAFTER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPS PRIOR TO FROPA...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S POTENTIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE FROPA WILL BE LATER. STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE) CERTAINLY INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE PRECISE NATURE OF THE THREAT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION /MCS ACTIVITY/ LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT(S)... THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY BACKED SFC WINDS /LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS/ POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ANY SFC WAVES WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE DIURNAL TIMING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A STARK CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. SINCE LOWS WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND UPON COLD ADVECTION... SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PRECLUDE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION BUT WITH STILL A RESIDUALLY DRY AND STRONGLY CAPPED REGIME OVER OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG - INTO THE 1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WILL RESULT OVER CENTRAL NC. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WED WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TO PERHAPS MOSTLY SO IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...BY THU AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE FLAT STRATOCUMULUS IS ADVECTED INLAND BENEATH THE CAP. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT 12Z THU AND CLEAR SKIES WOULD SUPPORT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THU MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DEGREE OF CALM GIVEN A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT. WILL ADJUST LOWS TO REFLECT MOSTLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...COOLEST WEST...BUT THESE MAY NEED FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT (OR AT LEAST OPEN THE RANGE) TO INCLUDE SOME UPPER 20S (AROUND RECORD LOWS) IF IT INDEED APPEARS ANY PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE CALM WILL BE ATTAINED. SIMILARLY COOL IN THE MIDDLE 50S WED...WHICH MAY THREATEN THE RECORD LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES AT KFAY FOR THE DATE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SLOW MODERATION TO AROUND 60 AND 40 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...RESPECTIVELY...THU AND THU NIGHT. -MWS && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... THOUGH MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM...THE EMERGING SIGNAL FROM THE MAJORITY OF BOTH THE ENSEMBLE AND SOLUTIONS OS FOR A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE US...ONE THAT WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE FORECAST TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT - A STORM TRACK THAT WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY AT LEAST THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...WHICH HAVE MINIMAL SUPPORT FROM THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING/INTERACTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN SOME DEGREE OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A WETTER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF NC DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IN EITHER SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT EVENING...SO MENTIONABLE POP WILL BE CONFINED TO THAT TIME UNTIL A CLEARER PICTURE EMERGES. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 155 PM MONDAY... ASIDE FROM A THREAT OF BKN MVFR CIGS NEAR INT/GSO EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD FROM 18Z-20Z TODAY... A PERIOD OF CONTINUED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THROUGH AROUND 02Z OR 03Z)... WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS SPORADICALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS... AND VFR CIGS. PATCHY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY AT FAY... BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST ANY MORE THAN 15 MIN AT ANY ONE TIME. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... AROUND 02Z OR 03Z... WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME... WITH CONTINUED STOUT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SSW (FROM 180-210 DEGREES) STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 14-17 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ON-AND-OFF MAINLY MVFR-VSBY-PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM THIS 04Z- 06Z TIME FRAME THROUGH AROUND 11Z-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... POTENTIALLY INDUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... BUT A LULL IN SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THIS 11Z-13Z WINDOW LASTING A FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY RISE A BIT TO MVFR DURING THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP. HOWEVER... AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... INT/GSO MAY SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 16Z). LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATING IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z... AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. STRONG WINDS FROM THE SSW AND SW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO BE FROM THE NW TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS POST- FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THU EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHALLOW LOW STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING... THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER LOW STRATUS FRI NIGHT THROUGH NOON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. -GIH
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&& .CLIMATE... THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING... AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THU: WED 04/16 THU 04/17 LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953 GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953 RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...DJF/SR/VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...HARTFIELD CLIMATE...MWS

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