Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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234 FXUS62 KRAH 021543 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1040 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build southeast from the northern Plains today, to the Ohio Valley Saturday, then extend down the eastern seaboard Sunday. A coastal front will develop late in the weekend through Monday as a storm system takes shape over Texas into the western Gulf Coast region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM Friday... Other than a few cirrus for a period this afternoon, mainly across the southern sections, sunny skies are expected. High pressure over North Dakota will continue to build SE with CAA over the the eastern states including NC. The high pressure will be slow to reach the eastern seaboard, only doing so by Saturday night and Sunday. This will prolong the cool dry conditions for NC. Highs today are expected to reach the mid 50s to around 60, warmest in the Sandhills and SE zones. A NW breeze at 10-15 mph will add to the coolness of the air. Other than a few cirrus from time to time, mainly southwest, clear skies tonight are expected. Some mixing should continue through midnight, give or take a few hours. Then calm conditions will allow excellent radiational cooling. Lows generally 28-35, coldest in the Piedmont where the conditions become calm for several hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Saturday night/... As of 240 PM Thursday... The surface ridge, centered over the central Miss Valley early Sat, shifts NE through the Great Lakes region through Sat night while continuing to extend SE through NC. Pieces of energy emanating from the deep low over NW Mexico will slowly break down the ridge as they ride along its top into NC, resulting in slowly thickening and lowering clouds, particularly Sat night. Expect mostly sunny skies early Sat to trend to partly sunny in the afternoon, then to cloudy Sat night from SW to NE as moist upglide strengthens and deepens in the mid levels. Expect no pops, however, as the column remains quite dry below 700 mb. Thicknesses should be slightly lower Sat than on Fri, suggesting cooler highs in the lower to mid 50s. Increasing clouds should limit radiational cooling in the SW CWA Sat night, lesser so in the NE, so expect lows to range from the mid 30s NE to around 40 SW. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 AM Friday... Sunday is expected to be a dry and cold day with high pressure to the north eventually moving offshore by Sunday night and although weak, could end up being an in-situ damming situation by Sunday night into early Monday morning. Highs sunday only in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Sunday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s. On Monday a weak wave will move up the Carolina coast and depending upon its track could bring some rain to central NC and points east. The best chances for rain will be across the south and east before a lull in precipitation on Monday night. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 40s. The real weather maker of the long term will be Tuesday and Tuesday night with a Miller B scenario that will bring two lows out of the deep south, one which will move up the coast and the other west of the Appalachians and up through the Tennessee Valley. The upshot is an extended period of rain on Tuesday with enough dynamic to bring some heavier amounts to the area. That being said, forecast soundings are very stable with a strong warm nose over the area that will be hard to overcome so the threat for any thunder at this time seems low but a change in the track of the coastal low could change that. Warmer but a large temperature gradient across the area with low 50s in the Triad to low 60s in the southeast. The rain will end Tuesday night and Wednesday and Thursday should be drier with highs near 60 degrees. && .AVIATION /15Z Friday through Tuesday/...
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As of 1040 AM Friday... High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. NW winds 10kt today will diminish to less than 5kt tonight. Looking beyond 12z Sat: VFR conditions are expected Saturday into Sunday. However, medium confidence in lowering CIGS Sunday or Sunday night, MVFR to possibly IFR as a coastal front develops. Periods of MVFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS expected Monday through Tuesday depending on how quickly the storm system expected to develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico spreads deep moisture into NC. High confidence in rain/fog/low CIGS sometime early next week. Timing still in question.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Badgett

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