Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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560 FXUS62 KRAH 180704 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 304 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure over the Mid-atlantic will extend across the region into the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Wednesday... Recent water vapor imagery shows upper-level ridging across the Mid- Atlantic along with a lingering trough axis off the Southeast coast and a short wave trough across the western Ohio Valley. The latest surface analysis shows a ridge of surface high pressure centered across western Virginia. The air mass across the Carolinas is rather dry with precipitable water values from the Tuesday evening RAOBs ranging around a third of an inch. Quiet weather is expected today with bright sunshine and perhaps a few wisps of cirrus clouds this afternoon across the west as the ridge axis slips east and a weak trough approaches. After a chilly morning, temperatures should jump 20-25 degrees between 8 and 11am this morning as the surface inversion breaks. Statistical guidance is in good agreement indicating highs in the 67 to 73 range. Scattered cirrus clouds will increase from the west overnight as the trough axis approaches from the west. In addition, low-level northeast to easterly flow combined with some weak isentropic lift will result in increasing low-level moisture and shallow weak ascent across the Coast and Coastal Plain late tonight which may result in a few areas of stratus toward daybreak. The return flow will also result in some moderation of minimums with lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s across the northern Piedmont near the VA border to the mid 40s across the southern Coastal Plain. With a moderated air mass and some clouds, the potential for patchy frost should be minimal. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... A quiet weather regime continues into Thursday and Thursday night as surface high pressure remains in control. A short wave trough pushes across the Carolinas on Thursday and offshore on Thursday night resulting in some transient and patchy cirrus clouds. Some shallow moisture could result in some patchy fog or stratus across the Coastal Plain toward daybreak Friday. Otherwise, skies should be generally clear. Highs on Thursday will range in the lower to mid 70s with lows Thursday night in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 PM Tuesday... High pressure will dominate through the weekend, with a very gradual warming trend through the period. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s, with perhaps some lower 80s Saturday and Sunday. Mins will be mostly in the mid 40s Friday morning warming to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning. The high pressure will shift offshore and we have a favorable return flow setting up ahead of our next frontal passage. Timing will be a key player early next week, as an upper trof moving east across the southern Midwest will cut off over the gulf states, assisting in providing strong moisture advection ahead of associated surface cold front. The chance of showers will increase by later Monday, with even better chances on tap for Monday night into Tuesday. Slightly delayed timing would be beneficial, as it would allow us to build up stronger instability to invigorate convection ahead of the front on Tuesday. Highs Monday will reach the mid and upper 70s, while Tuesday`s highs will be dependent on frontal passage...probably see 70s again, but could see cold air advection halt the morning warmup early in the northeast. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft will result in generally clear skies and fair weather. Light northeast to easterly surface winds will range between 4 and 8kts today with very light to calm winds expected early this morning and again tonight. Looking beyond the 24-hour TAF period, surface high pressure will persist across the region into the weekend. Some patchy stratus or fog is possible across the Coastal Plain impacting the KFAY/KRWI around and just prior to daybreak on Thursday and possibly Friday mornings. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BLAES

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