Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291712 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 112 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... EARLIER CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A NEW IMPULSE OF SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE TRIAD AND VA BORDER COUNTIES AND COULD PERSIST GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THICKNESS DIP TO NEAR 30 M BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NW TO SE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY... WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY) REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH OR NORTHEASTLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...ELLIS

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