Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 310234 CCA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1034 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1034 PM THURSDAY... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL NC...DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING SE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW 70S NW TO MID 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST THINKING...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO PRECLUDE THE RISK FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE EVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ERROR IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/MOISTURE COULD MEAN A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REST OF CENTRAL NC EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME. ONLY A SMALL DROP IN THICKNESSES IS FORECAST...SO HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL...89-94. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE UNDERGOING FURTHER AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM IN THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...PERSISTING TROUGHING /CYCLONIC FLOW/ ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THOUGH NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES /SHORTWAVES/ WILL NO DOUBT BE PRESENT IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN... THE BULK OF NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/WEST THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR (OR PERHAPS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT) DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXCEPT IN EASTERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN (RIDGE/TROUGH AXES) OVER THE LOWER 48 WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1... THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 827 PM THURSDAY... BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 02 TO 03Z. KFAY AND KRWI COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD: THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KFAY AND KRWI...WHERE ISOLATED DIURNAL CONDITION IS POSSIBLE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...CBL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.