Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FGUS72 KRAH 210921 ESFRAH ESFRAH NCC001-007-037-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-083-085-093-101-105- 123-125-127-135-145-151-153-163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-051600- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 400 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...THE RISK OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SPRING IS NEAR NORMAL..... PRECIPITATION SUMMARY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM FALL INTO MID FEBRUARY CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARKED GRADIENT RANGING FROM BELOW NORMAL (AS LITTLE AS 75% OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE WEST IN THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN TO AS MUCH AS 110% ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST (GENERALLY THE MID TO LOWER REACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR...NEUSE...AND TAR RIVER BASINS). THE RAINFALL DEFICIT IN THE YADKIN RIVER BASIN NOTED ABOVE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR MAINTAINING ABNORMALLY DRY DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WHERE THE DEFICIT SINCE OCTOBER HOVERS FROM 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN FORSYTH...GUILFORD...AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES. THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS. PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2014)TO DATE MONTH RDU GSO FAYETTEVILLE --------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 2.18/-1.07 2.01/-1.12 1.31/-1.90 NOVEMBER 3.78/ 0.66 3.33/ 0.22 2.84/ 0.07 DECEMBER 4.97/ 1.90 2.21/-0.77 4.22/ 1.57 JANUARY 3.35/-0.15 2.04/-1.02 4.37/ 1.07 FEB TO DATE 1.63/-0.62 1.45/-0.59 1.46/-0.52 TOTALS 15.91/ 0.72 11.04/-3.28 14.20/ 0.29 % OF NORMAL 105 77 102 ACTUAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT PCPN PCPN FROM NORM OF NORM RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 02/13/2015 0.67 0.82 -0.15 82% LAST 14 DAYS 02/06/2015 1.24 1.57 -0.33 79% LAST 30 DAYS 01/21/2015 2.71 3.36 -0.65 81% LAST 90 DAYS 11/22/2014 12.44 9.63 2.81 129% LAST 180 DAYS 08/24/2014 21.89 20.61 1.28 106% LAST 365 DAYS 02/20/2014 55.67 43.34 12.33 128% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 02/13/2015 0.48 0.76 -0.28 63% LAST 14 DAYS 02/06/2015 1.07 1.43 -0.36 75% LAST 30 DAYS 01/21/2015 2.36 2.98 -0.62 79% LAST 90 DAYS 11/22/2014 7.64 8.90 -1.26 86% LAST 180 DAYS 08/24/2014 13.97 19.44 -5.47 72% LAST 365 DAYS 02/20/2014 33.84 42.20 -8.36 80% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 02/13/2015 0.65 0.78 -0.13 83% LAST 14 DAYS 02/06/2015 0.94 1.42 -0.48 66% LAST 30 DAYS 01/21/2015 2.59 3.24 -0.65 80% LAST 90 DAYS 11/22/2014 12.60 8.71 3.89 145% LAST 180 DAYS 08/24/2014 21.06 19.47 1.59 108% LAST 365 DAYS 02/20/2014 41.55 44.46 -2.91 93% STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT (>0.25 INCHES) WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN FEBRUARY. CUMULATIVELY...THESE EVENTS STILL DO NOT ADD UP TO NORMAL PRECIPITATION...ABOUT A HALF INCH BELOW NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO OFFSET THE DEFICIT WITH REDUCED EVAPORATION. THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL FLOWS IN EASTERN RIVERS...WHILE A FEW STREAMS IN THE WEST (WHICH WERE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL) REMAIN BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC...FALLS LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...ARE BOTH SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR TARGET ELEVATIONS. SHORT TERM FORECAST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MONTH. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT AN EVENT PRODUCING AT LEAST 2 INCHES WOULD BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE RIVER FLOODING OF CONSEQUENCE. AS SUCH...THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CLASSIFIED AS NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO LATE FEBRUARY. LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING RISES WITH THE APPROACH OF SPRING...PEAKING IN MARCH AND APRIL. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED THROUGH MARCH...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO FORECAST IMPORTANT DETAILS SUCH AS THE STRENGTH OF AN INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM OR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN ONE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME FRAME. AS SUCH...THE LONGER RANGE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL. ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV IN SUMMARY...CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE RATHER WET ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. CONVERSELY...CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ARE DRY. THERE ARE NO SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT RANGE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION (>2 INCHES) TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE. AS SUCH... THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH LATE-FEBRUARY IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL. THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TOWARDS A WETTER OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING SYSTEMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THUS THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM LATE-FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL IS ALSO CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 5TH. MLM

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