Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FGUS72 KRAH 031428 ESFRAH NCC001-007-037-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-083-085-093-101-105- 123-125-127-135-145-151-153-163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-161600- SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1030 AM EST FRI APR 3 2015 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SPRING IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... PRECIPITATION SUMMARY SHORT TERM RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS SHOWN A MARKED CONTRAST FROM DRY (AS LITTLE AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL) IN THE WEST (PARTICULARLY OVER THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN) TO WETTER (UP TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) IN THE EAST. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LONGER TERM RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL WEST TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL EAST...FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT (70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL) IN THE YADKIN RIVER BASIN NOTED ABOVE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR MAINTAINING AND RECENTLY EXPANDING ABNORMALLY DRY DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS DETERMINED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (WWW.DROUGHT.GOV). THE RECENT EXPANSION OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SOUTHERN DAVIDSON AND STANLY COUNTIES. THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS. PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2014)TO DATE MONTH RDU GSO FAYETTEVILLE --------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 2.18/-1.07 2.01/-1.12 1.31/-1.90 NOVEMBER 3.78/ 0.66 3.33/ 0.22 2.84/ 0.07 DECEMBER 4.97/ 1.90 2.21/-0.77 4.22/ 1.57 JANUARY 3.35/-0.15 2.04/-1.02 4.37/ 1.07 FEBRUARY 2.91/-0.32 2.64/-0.32 3.28/ 0.52 MARCH 3.28/-0.83 2.72/-1.01 2.70/-0.85 APR TO DATE 0.00/-0.23 0.00/-0.25 0.00/-0.25 TOTALS YEAR TO DATE 9.54/-1.53 7.40/-2.60 10.35/0.49 % OF NORMAL 86 74 105 WATER YEAR 20.47/-0.04 14.95/-4.27 18.72/0.23 % OF NORMAL 100 78 100 BEGIN ACTUAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT DATE PCPN PCPN FROM NORM OF NORM RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 03/27/2015 0.34 0.88 -0.54 39% LAST 14 DAYS 03/20/2015 0.78 1.78 -1.00 44% LAST 30 DAYS 03/04/2015 2.54 3.95 -1.41 64% LAST 90 DAYS 01/03/2015 9.54 10.87 -1.33 88% LAST 180 DAYS 10/05/2014 20.38 20.06 0.32 102% LAST 365 DAYS 04/03/2014 54.77 43.34 11.43 126% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 03/27/2015 0.33 0.87 -0.54 38% LAST 14 DAYS 03/20/2015 0.69 1.70 -1.01 41% LAST 30 DAYS 03/04/2015 2.43 3.63 -1.20 67% LAST 90 DAYS 01/03/2015 7.40 9.82 -2.42 75% LAST 180 DAYS 10/05/2014 14.81 18.82 -4.01 79% LAST 365 DAYS 04/03/2014 33.18 42.20 -9.02 79% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 03/27/2015 0.44 0.94 -0.50 47% LAST 14 DAYS 03/20/2015 0.87 1.75 -0.88 50% LAST 30 DAYS 03/04/2015 2.48 3.48 -1.00 71% LAST 90 DAYS 01/03/2015 10.33 9.68 0.65 107% LAST 180 DAYS 10/05/2014 18.59 17.82 0.77 104% LAST 365 DAYS 04/03/2014 42.14 44.46 -2.32 95% STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE HAVE BEEN TWO RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT (>0.25 INCHES) PRECIPITATION EVENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SINCE MID MARCH...BUT NEITHER OF THESE PRODUCED MORE THAN A HALF INCH OVER AN EXTENSIVE AREA. THE NET RESULT WAS TO MARGINALLY MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOME EXPANSION OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. STREAMFLOWS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A FALLING TREND AND A NUMBER OF LARGER STREAMS IN THE YADKIN/PEE DEE AND HAW RIVER BASINS ARE BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC...FALLS LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL INFLOWS TO THE LAKES...BUT ARE BOTH THREE TENTHS OF A FOOT ABOVE THEIR TARGET POOL...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE PUBLIC WATER SUPPLIES THROUGH THE SUMMER. SHORT TERM FORECAST AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MID APRIL. A SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH RAIN WE MIGHT RECEIVE. IT IS ESTIMATED THAN IT WOULD REQUIRE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE. AS SUCH...THE SHORT RANGE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CLASSIFIED AS NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO MID APRIL. LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY...APRIL IS NEAR THE PEAK FREQUENCY FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 2015...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF ENHANCED RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DEEP LAYER (0-200 CM) SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY 50 TO 60 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WITH GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CONSIDERED `WET` WHEN ESTIMATING THE CONTRIBUTION OF BASE FLOW TO POTENTIAL RUNOFF. AS SUCH...THERE IS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM MID APRIL THROUGH THE END OF SPRING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND DISCUSSION MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV IN SUMMARY...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ARE SOMEWHAT DRIER. THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH MID APRIL IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SPRING...BUT ANTECEDENT DRYNESS WOULD NEED TO BE OVERCOME TO PRODUCE INCREASED CHANCES OF RIVER FLOODING. THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM MID APRIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SPRING IS CATEGORIZED AS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 16TH. MLM

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