Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FGUS72 KRAH 031614 CCA ESFRAH ESFRAH NCC001-007-037-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-083-085-093-101-105- 123-125-127-135-145-151-153-163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-171200- SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1215 PM EST THU APR 3 2014 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...THE SHORT TERM RISK OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID APRIL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... PRECIPITATION SUMMARY MARCH PRECIPITATION WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL (>4 INCHES) ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH INCLUDES THE HEADWATERS REGIONS OF THE ROANOKE...CAPE FEAR...NEUSE AND TAR RIVERS...WHILE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WAS NORMAL (3-4 INCHES). A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON 3/6-7 WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVER HALF OF THE MONTH`S TOTAL AND CAUSED MINOR FLOODING ON THE HAW AND DEEP RIVERS. RAINFALL FOR THE MID TO LATE MARCH TIME FRAME WAS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER...WHICH ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONTH`S END. THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS. PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2013)TO DATE MONTH RDU GSO FAYETTEVILLE --------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 1.41/-1.84 1.11/-2.02 0.91/-2.30 NOVEMBER 2.99/-0.13 3.61/ 0.50 2.54/-0.23 DECEMBER 5.91/ 2.84 5.19/ 2.21 4.28/ 1.63 JANUARY 1.96/-1.54 3.98/ 0.92 4.06/ 0.76 FEBRUARY 3.00/-0.23 2.24/-0.72 2.66/-0.10 MARCH 5.06/ 0.95 4.36/ 0.63 3.64/ 0.09 TOTALS 20.33/ 0.05 20.49/ 1.54 18.09/ 0.15 % OF NORMAL 100 108 101 BEGIN ACTUAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT DATE PCPN PCPN FROM NORM OF NORM RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 03/27/2014 1.03 0.88 0.15 117% LAST 14 DAYS 03/20/2014 1.20 1.78 -0.58 67% LAST 30 DAYS 03/04/2014 4.70 3.95 0.75 119% LAST 90 DAYS 01/03/2014 9.69 10.87 -1.18 89% LAST 180 DAYS 10/05/2013 20.33 20.06 0.27 101% LAST 365 DAYS 04/03/2013 50.57 43.34 7.23 117% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 03/27/2014 0.25 0.87 -0.62 29% LAST 14 DAYS 03/20/2014 0.63 1.70 -1.07 37% LAST 30 DAYS 03/04/2014 3.94 3.63 0.31 109% LAST 90 DAYS 01/03/2014 10.16 9.82 0.34 103% LAST 180 DAYS 10/05/2013 20.49 18.82 1.67 109% LAST 365 DAYS 04/03/2013 49.49 42.20 7.29 117% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 03/27/2014 1.09 0.94 0.15 116% LAST 14 DAYS 03/20/2014 1.13 1.75 -0.62 65% LAST 30 DAYS 03/04/2014 3.20 3.48 -0.28 92% LAST 90 DAYS 01/03/2014 10.05 9.68 0.37 104% LAST 180 DAYS 10/05/2013 18.09 17.82 0.27 102% LAST 365 DAYS 04/03/2013 45.93 44.46 1.47 103% STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE LARGE WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS IN CENTRAL NC... FALLS LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...ARE BOTH SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR GUIDE CURVES WITH INFLOWS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. SHORT TERM FORECAST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...THE 7TH... WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING ONE INCH. THIS COULD CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STREAMFLOWS RISING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AS WE ARE IN A TYPICALLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS EVERY FEW DAYS...THE SHORT TERM RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL (THROUGH MID APRIL) IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE ON THE DOWNSIDE OF OUR ANNUAL PEAK OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY FOR RIVER FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS NO CORRESPONDING CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL THAT WOULD SUGGEST A DEVIATION FROM A NORMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING. THUS...THE CHANCE OF LONGER-RANGE RIVER FLOODING...FROM MID APRIL THROUGH JUNE...IS CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV THE NEXT SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 17H. MLM

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