National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR LATE MARCH THROUGH EARLY APRIL
IS NEAR NORMAL...

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

MARCH PRECIPITATION TO DATE HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...OFFSETTING A DAMP
START DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH. THE PRECIPITATION
DISTRIBUTION HAS BEEN DISAPPOINTING AS WELL...WITH LESS RAIN (AS LOW
AS 25% OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSIST IN 7 COUNTIES. THE SHORT TERM DEFICIT PROMPTED
SOME MINOR EXPANSION OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS.

               PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
               WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2012)TO DATE

    MONTH           RDU           GSO        FAYETTEVILLE
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  OCTOBER       1.83/-1.42     2.44/-0.69     2.35/-0.86
  NOVEMBER      0.56/-2.56     0.24/-2.87     1.17/-1.60
  DECEMBER      2.94/-0.13     2.72/-0.26     3.90/+1.25
  JANUARY       3.10/-0.40     5.47/+2.41     1.80/-1.50
  FEBRUARY      4.08/+0.85     3.20/+0.24     3.84/+1.08
  MARCH TO DATE 1.35/-1.34     1.43/-0.97     0.75/-1.42

  TOTALS       13.86/-5.39    15.50/-2.14    13.81/-4.05
  % OF NORMAL      72             88             77



                 BEGINNING   ACTUAL  NORMAL  DEPARTURE   PERCENT
                   DATE       PCPN    PCPN   FROM NORM   OF NORM

RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)
LAST   7 DAYS   03/14/2013   0.28    0.94     -0.66       30%
LAST  14 DAYS   03/07/2013   0.93    1.91     -0.98       49%
LAST  30 DAYS   02/19/2013   3.71    3.91     -0.20       95%
LAST  90 DAYS   12/21/2012  10.32   10.52     -0.20       98%
LAST 180 DAYS   09/22/2012  14.91   19.99     -5.08       75%
LAST 365 DAYS   03/21/2012  41.12   43.34     -2.22       95%

PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)
 LAST   7 DAYS   03/14/2013   0.19    0.85     -0.66       22%
 LAST  14 DAYS   03/07/2013   0.99    1.70     -0.71       58%
 LAST  30 DAYS   02/19/2013   2.98    3.54     -0.56       84%
 LAST  90 DAYS   12/21/2012  11.79    9.46      2.33      125%
 LAST 180 DAYS   09/22/2012  16.97   18.72     -1.75       91%
 LAST 365 DAYS   03/21/2012  41.83   42.20     -0.37       99%

FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)
 LAST   7 DAYS   03/14/2013   0.17    0.81     -0.64       21%
 LAST  14 DAYS   03/07/2013   0.63    1.55     -0.92       41%
 LAST  30 DAYS   02/19/2013   2.54    3.18     -0.64       80%
 LAST  90 DAYS   12/21/2012   8.06    9.01     -0.95       89%
 LAST 180 DAYS   09/22/2012  13.92   18.14     -4.22       77%
 LAST 365 DAYS   03/21/2012  41.02   44.46     -3.44       92%

STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS

FLOWS IN THE LARGER STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE NEAR NORMAL,
HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STREAMFLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (THE AREA STILL EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT). FLOWS
AT A FEW SITES IN THE MIDDLE CAPE FEAR AND MIDDLE NEUSE RIVER BASINS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

THE TWO MAJOR WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS IN CENTRAL NC...LAKE JORDAN
AND FALLS LAKE...ARE BOTH ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE THEIR TARGET
ELEVATIONS...WITH WATER SUPPLY STORAGE SUFFICIENT TO LAST THROUGH
SUMMER.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

AN ANOMALOUS COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS ONLY ONE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM ON THE NEAR TERM HORIZON...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN A UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE
HINTS THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
PALM SUNDAY WEEKEND.

LONGER RANGE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING IS AT ITS PEAK
IN MARCH AND APRIL. HOWEVER...THE LARGER SCALE FLOW SET UP OVER
NORTH AMERICA SLIGHTLY FAVORS A DRIER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO APRIL.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WEBSITE:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

IN SUMMARY...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS BEEN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT FLOWS IN LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN IN THE NORMAL
RANGE. WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE THEIR TARGET
ELEVATIONS.

ANTECEDENT SOIL AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS
A SLIGHTLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...BUT WE ARE
ALSO FACING A COOL SPELL WHICH WILL REDUCE EVAPORATION AND SLOW THE
SPRING GREENUP. MINOR RIVER FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE WERE TO
RECEIVE A FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD 1.5-2.0 INCH RAIN EVENT. AS SUCH...THE
CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LATE
MARCH AND EARLY APRIL TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 4TH.

$$

MLM
National Weather Service National Headquarters
