Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FGUS72 KRAH 201251 ESFRAH NCC001-007-037-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-083-085-093-101-105- 123-125-127-135-145-151-153-163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-021600- SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 235 PM EST THU MAR 19 2015 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH IS NEAR NORMAL... ...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM APRIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SPRING IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... PRECIPITATION SUMMARY SHORT TERM RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...RANGING FROM LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT (LOWER YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN) TO ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN (CENTRAL NEUSE AND TAR RIVER BASINS). PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 2014 TO PRESENT) CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARKED GRADIENT RANGING FROM BELOW NORMAL (AS LITTLE AS 70% OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE WEST IN THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN TO AS MUCH AS 120% ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST (GENERALLY THE MID TO LOWER REACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR... NEUSE...AND TAR RIVER BASINS). THE LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT (70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL) IN THE YADKIN RIVER BASIN NOTED ABOVE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR MAINTAINING ABNORMALLY DRY DROUGHT CONDITIONS (WWW.DROUGHT.GOV) IN NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES (FORSYTH...GUILFORD...AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES). THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS. PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2014)TO DATE MONTH RDU GSO FAYETTEVILLE --------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 2.18/-1.07 2.01/-1.12 1.31/-1.90 NOVEMBER 3.78/ 0.66 3.33/ 0.22 2.84/ 0.07 DECEMBER 4.97/ 1.90 2.21/-0.77 4.22/ 1.57 JANUARY 3.35/-0.15 2.04/-1.02 4.37/ 1.07 FEBRUARY 2.91/-0.32 2.64/-0.32 3.28/ 0.52 MARCH TO DATE 2.16/-0.27 1.61/-0.55 1.62/-0.31 TOTALS YEAR TO DATE 8.42/-0.74 6.29/-1.89 9.27/1.28 % OF NORMAL 92 77 116 WATER YEAR 19.35/ 0.75 13.84/-3.56 17.64/1.02 % OF NORMAL 104 80 106 ACTUAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT PCPN PCPN FROM NORM OF NORM RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 03/12/2015 0.32 0.95 -0.63 34% LAST 14 DAYS 03/05/2015 1.40 1.91 -0.51 73% LAST 30 DAYS 02/17/2015 3.89 3.88 0.01 100% LAST 90 DAYS 12/19/2014 12.28 10.45 1.83 118% LAST 180 DAYS 09/20/2014 22.84 19.99 2.85 114% LAST 365 DAYS 03/19/2014 54.89 43.34 11.55 127% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 03/12/2015 0.33 0.85 -0.52 39% LAST 14 DAYS 03/05/2015 1.32 1.70 -0.38 78% LAST 30 DAYS 02/17/2015 2.86 3.52 -0.66 81% LAST 90 DAYS 12/19/2014 7.97 9.40 -1.43 85% LAST 180 DAYS 09/20/2014 14.23 18.75 -4.52 76% LAST 365 DAYS 03/19/2014 32.76 42.20 -9.44 78% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 03/12/2015 1.00 0.77 0.23 130% LAST 14 DAYS 03/05/2015 1.40 1.51 -0.11 93% LAST 30 DAYS 02/17/2015 3.89 3.17 0.72 123% LAST 90 DAYS 12/19/2014 12.95 8.92 4.03 145% LAST 180 DAYS 09/20/2014 18.47 18.19 0.28 102% LAST 365 DAYS 03/19/2014 42.24 44.46 -2.22 95% STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE HAVE BEEN THREE SIGNIFICANT (>0.25 INCHES) REASONABLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR IN MARCH. THE TOTAL RAIN FROM THESE EVENTS WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...WITH A GENERAL NET RESULT OF MAINTAINING HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. STREAMFLOWS HAVE SHOWN A SHORT TERM FALLING TREND AND A NUMBER OF STREAMS IN THE YADKIN/PEE DEE AND HAW RIVER BASINS ARE BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). STREAMFLOWS FOR A LONGER TIME PERIOD (4 WEEKS)...HOWEVER...ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC...FALLS LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...BENEFITTED GREATLY FROM A WINTER STORM IN LATE FEBRUARY AND THE SUBSEQUENT DELAYED INFLOWS. INFLOWS INTO THE LAKES WAS GREATER THAN 150% OF NORMAL DURING EARLY MARCH...TAPERING OFF TO 50% TO 60% OF NORMAL BY MID MONTH. BOTH LAKES ARE WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF A FOOT OF THEIR TARGET POOL...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE PUBLIC WATER SUPPLIES THROUGH THE SUMMER. SHORT TERM FORECAST A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AROUND A HALF INCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON 3/19-20. IT IS ESTIMATED THAN IT WOULD REQUIRE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE. AS THE NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...THE SHORT RANGE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CLASSIFIED AS NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO LATE MARCH. LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY...MARCH AND APRIL ARE THE MONTHS OF PEAK FREQUENCY FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 2015...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF ENHANCED RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DEEP LAYER (0-200 CM) SOIL MOISTURE IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...AND CONSIDERING THE RECENT CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR RAIN DUE TO THE LATEST ENSO FORECAST...THERE IS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM APRIL THROUGH THE END OF SPRING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND DISCUSSION MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV IN SUMMARY...CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE RATHER WET ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER. THERE ARE NO SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST LIKELY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION (>1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE. AS SUCH...THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH LATE MARCH IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL. THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TOWARDS A WETTER OUTLOOK FOR LATE SPRING INTO THE SUMMER DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK EL NINO. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THUS THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR APRIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SPRING IS CATEGORIZED AS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 2ND. MLM

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