Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FGUS72 KRAH 221555 ESFRAH DDHHMM 212000 WRKHYD ESFRAH NCC001-007-037-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-083-085-093-101-105- 123-125-127-135-145-151-153-163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-051600- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1100 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...THE RISK OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SPRING IS NEAR NORMAL..... PRECIPITATION SUMMARY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM FALL INTO MID JANUARY HAS SHOWN A RATHER ANOMALOUS PATTERN...WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE WEST (THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN) AND IN THE FAR EASTERN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (GENERALLY THE MID TO LOWER REACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR...NEUSE...AND TAR RIVER BASINS). MEANWHILE...RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS A RATHER NARROW (2- 3 COUNTY-WIDE) STRIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...WITH A BULLSEYE OF >125% SURPLUS FROM WAKE COUNTY STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE RAINFALL DEFICIT IN THE YADKIN RIVER BASIN NOTED ABOVE IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR MAINTAINING ABNORMALLY DRY DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WHERE THE DEFICIT SINCE OCTOBER IS AROUND 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN FORSYTH...GUILFORD...AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES. THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS. PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2014)TO DATE MONTH RDU GSO FAYETTEVILLE --------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 2.18/-1.07 2.01/-1.12 1.31/-1.90 NOVEMBER 3.78/ 0.66 3.33/ 0.22 2.84/ 0.07 DECEMBER 4.97/ 1.90 2.21/-0.77 4.22/ 1.57 JAN TO DATE 2.27/-0.11 1.13/-0.98 3.24/ 1.22 TOTALS 13.17/ 1.38 8.68/-2.65 11.61/ 0.96 % OF NORMAL 112 77 109 ACTUAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT PCPN PCPN FROM NORM OF NORM RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 01/14/2015 0.50 0.81 -0.31 62% LAST 14 DAYS 01/07/2015 1.82 1.63 0.19 112% LAST 30 DAYS 12/22/2014 6.06 3.27 2.79 185% LAST 90 DAYS 10/23/2014 11.20 9.36 1.84 120% LAST 180 DAYS 07/25/2014 26.51 21.44 5.07 124% LAST 365 DAYS 01/21/2014 55.84 43.34 12.50 129% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 01/14/2015 0.02 0.71 -0.69 3% LAST 14 DAYS 01/07/2015 0.59 1.43 -0.84 41% LAST 30 DAYS 12/22/2014 2.81 2.95 -0.14 95% LAST 90 DAYS 10/23/2014 7.10 9.02 -1.92 79% LAST 180 DAYS 07/25/2014 14.88 20.39 -5.51 73% LAST 365 DAYS 01/21/2014 33.79 42.20 -8.41 80% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 01/14/2015 0.44 0.67 -0.23 66% LAST 14 DAYS 01/07/2015 2.97 1.38 1.59 215% LAST 30 DAYS 12/22/2014 6.83 2.64 4.19 259% LAST 90 DAYS 10/23/2014 10.30 7.98 2.32 129% LAST 180 DAYS 07/25/2014 22.42 21.83 0.59 103% LAST 365 DAYS 01/21/2014 41.62 44.46 -2.84 94% STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON JANUARY 12-14 PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SANDHILLS... AND THERE WAS SOME MINOR FLOODING ON THE NEUSE AND TAR RIVERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FELL OFF RAPIDLY IN THE WEST...WITH FAR WESTERN COUNTIES RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE HALF AN INCH. NOT SURPRISINGLY...STREAMFLOWS RANGE FROM THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE EAST TO BELOW THE 20TH PERCENTILE OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC...FALLS LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...ARE BOTH ABOUT ONE HALF A FOOT ABOVE THEIR TARGET ELEVATIONS. SHORT TERM FORECAST A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND (SATURDAY THE 24TH)...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AGAIN RANGING FROM LIGHTER WEST TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY IN THE EAST. RAINFALL IN THE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE NEUSE RIVER (WITH A GREATER THREAT DOWNSTREAM AT GOLDSBORO)...AND POSSIBLY THE TAR RIVER (AGAIN MAINLY DOWNSTREAM AT TARBORO). THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST HEADING INTO LATE JANUARY...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE CORRESPONDINGLY DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. AS SUCH...THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CLASSIFIED AS NEAR NORMAL INTO LATE JANUARY...DIMINISHING TO BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR FLOODING FOR THE FIRST WEEK OR SO OF FEBRUARY. LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING RISES WITH THE APPROACH OF SPRING...PEAKING IN MARCH AND APRIL. WHILE THERE WERE INITIAL INDICATIONS FOR CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO THIS WINTER...THOSE INDICATIONS HAVE WEAKENED AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS REDUCED THE PROBABILITY OF WETTER-THAN- NORMAL CONDITIONS FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL. DISCOUNTING AN EL NINO...THERE IS NO CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL THAT MIGHT TIP THE SCALE IN EITHER DIRECTION OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL...HENCE THE LONGER RANGE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL. ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV IN SUMMARY...CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE RATHER WET ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ON THE NEUSE AND TAR RIVERS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOILS TO DRY AND RIVER LEVELS TO FALL. AS SUCH...THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL. SIMILARLY...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO DEFINITIVE CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL PRESENT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DEVIATION FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER RANGE. EVEN IF A WEAK EL NINO WERE TO DEVELOP...ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL INFLUENCE FOR ENHANCING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MINIMAL IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THUS THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL IS ALSO CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 5TH. MLM

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