Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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446 FGUS72 KRAH 081629 ESFRAH ESFRAH NCC001-007-037-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-083-085-093-101-105- 123-125-127-135-145-151-153-163-165-167-181-183-185-191-195-171600- SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1130 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 ...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...THE SHORT TERM CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL... ...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM MID FEBRUARY THROUGH THROUGH SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL... PRECIPITATION SUMMARY OVER THE SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON FEBRUARY 3RD AND STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE 4TH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST...WHERE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS RANGED FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRECIPITATION CAUSED MINOR FLOODING ON THE TAR AND NEUSE RIVERS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING MINOR FLOODING AT TARBORO ON THE TAR RIVER...AND AT GOLDSBORO ON THE LOWER NEUSE RIVER. OVERALL...THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS MAINTAINED A DISTINCT LOWER-NORTHWEST (<1.0 INCH) TO HIGHER SOUTHEAST (4+ INCHES) PATTERN NORMALLY CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WARM PHASE (EL NINO) OF AN ENSO CYCLE. DAMP CONDITIONS PERSIST EVEN IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER...AND DEEP RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE (0-80 INCH DEPTH) ACROSS THE AREA IS ABOVE 60 PERCENT OF SATURATION. SIMILARLY OVER THE LONGER RANGE...RAINFALL FOR THE WATER YEAR (OCT 2015 TO DATE) ALSO EXHIBITS A DISTRIBUTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EL NINO....WETTER SOUTHWEST (UP TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) TO DRIER-NORTHEAST (~125 PERCENT OF NORMAL) DISTRIBUTION. THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS. PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2015)TO DATE MONTH RDU GSO FAYETTEVILLE --------------------------------------------------------------------- OCTOBER 5.06/ 1.81 4.24/ 1.11 6.66/ 3.45 NOVEMBER 7.14/ 4.02 6.79/ 3.68 6.38/ 3.61 DECEMBER 6.07/ 3.00 6.65/ 3.67 6.51/ 3.86 JANUARY 1.73/-1.77 1.91/-1.15 1.70/-1.60 FEB TO DATE 1.54/ 0.76 1.00/ 0.31 2.68/ 2.06 TOTALS WATER YEAR TO DATE 21.54/ 7.82 20.59/ 7.62 23.93/11.38 % OF NORMAL 157 159 191 BEGIN ACTUAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT DATE PCPN PCPN FROM NORM OF NORM RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 02/01/2016 1.54 0.78 0.76 197% LAST 14 DAYS 01/25/2016 1.54 1.56 -0.02 99% LAST 30 DAYS 01/09/2016 3.23 3.41 -0.18 95% LAST 90 DAYS 11/10/2015 12.29 9.51 2.78 129% LAST 180 DAYS 08/12/2015 29.18 20.82 8.36 140% LAST 365 DAYS 02/08/2015 56.63 43.34 13.29 131% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 02/01/2016 1.00 0.69 0.31 145% LAST 14 DAYS 01/25/2016 1.03 1.36 -0.33 76% LAST 30 DAYS 01/09/2016 2.88 2.97 -0.09 97% LAST 90 DAYS 11/10/2015 12.53 8.87 3.66 141% LAST 180 DAYS 08/12/2015 28.37 19.63 8.74 145% LAST 365 DAYS 02/08/2015 48.98 42.20 6.78 116% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 02/01/2016 2.68 0.62 2.06 432% LAST 14 DAYS 01/25/2016 2.75 1.55 1.20 177% LAST 30 DAYS 01/09/2016 4.38 3.17 1.21 138% LAST 90 DAYS 11/10/2015 13.03 8.61 4.42 151% LAST 180 DAYS 08/12/2015 29.46 20.37 9.09 145% LAST 365 DAYS 02/08/2015 53.19 44.46 8.73 120% STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS STREAMFLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THEIR NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVING EDGED UPWARD A BIT OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...SEE WWW.WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV. THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC ARE FALLS LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. FALLS LAKE ELEVATION IS AT 252.5 FEET...A FOOT ABOVE ITS TARGET ELEVATION OF 251.5 FEET AFTER HAVING RISEN TO 253 FEET ON FEBRUARY 5TH. LAKE JORDAN ROSE ABOUT 2.5 FEET AND IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STEADY NEAR ITS PEAK ELEVATION OF 218.7 FEET (2.7 FEET ABOVE THE TARGET ELEVATION)...BUT WILL BE LOWERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE WWW.EPEC.SAW.USACE.ARMY.MIL FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. SHORT TERM FORECAST AS NOTED ABOVE...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYSTEM LOOMING IN THE NEAR TERM (FEB 9 THROUGH FEB 18TH) THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE FLOODING TO RECUR. AS SUCH...THE SHORT RANGE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO MID FEBRUARY. LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING INCREASES FROM MID WINTER THROUGH SPRING...PEAKING IN APRIL. THE ONGOING WARM PHASE OF THE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CYCLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WINTER AND INTO SPRING...WITH THE CORRESPONDING EFFECT OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RELATIVELY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM MID FEBRUARY INTO THE SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND DISCUSSION MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV IN SUMMARY...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS NO SYSTEM EXPECTED THROUGH MID FEBRUARY THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A RECURRENCE OF RIVER FLOODING...THUS THE SHORT TERM CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL. IN THE LONGER RANGE...HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE THREAT OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL RESULTING FROM THE ONGOING WARM PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE. THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 18TH. MLM

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