Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 NOUS42 KRAH 281026 PNSRAH NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-281430- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 626 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 ...THIS WEEK IS HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK FOR 2015... ALL WEEK LONG THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE INFORMATIVE MESSAGES TO HELP YOU PREPARE FOR THE HURRICANE SEASON. EACH DAY WE WILL COVER A DIFFERENT TOPIC. TODAY WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE FORECAST PROCESS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: THE PRIMARY MISSION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS TO SAVE LIVES AND PROTECT PROPERTY BY ISSUING WATCHES...WARNINGS...FORECASTS...AND ANALYSES OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS. IN THE LAST 15 YEARS HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS ARE MORE RELIABLE TODAY THAN EVER AND MORE ACCURATE FORECASTS MEAN BETTER PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE STORM STRIKES. OBSERVATION: WHEN FORECASTING AND WARNING FOR HURRICANES...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USES ALL OF THE TOOLS IN ITS OBSERVATIONAL ARSENAL. SATELLITES...BUOYS...AIRCRAFT...RADAR AND MODEL DATA ARE ALL IMPORTANT TOOLS USED FOR HURRICANE TRACKING AND PREDICTION. WHILE HURRICANES ARE STILL OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...INDIRECT MEASUREMENTS OF THE STORMS INTENSITY AND BEHAVIOR ARE MADE PRIMARILY VIA ADVANCED SATELLITES... ALTHOUGH SHIPS AND BUOYS PROVIDE SOME OBSERVATIONS. ONCE THE STORM FALLS WITHIN RANGE OF AIRCRAFT MORE DIRECT MEASUREMENTS ARE TAKEN BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND MEASUREMENTS OF WINDS...PRESSURE...AND EVEN OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE COLLECTED. WITHIN ABOUT 200 MILES OF THE COAST...RADAR PROVIDES IMPORTANT MEASUREMENTS OF THE STORM. THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT ARE USED TO FORECAST STORM INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT REQUIRE A GREAT DEAL OF DATA ABOUT THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDING ALL THE OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITES...AIRCRAFT...SHIPS AND RADAR. MODEL GUIDANCE: COMPUTER MODELS TAKE ALL THE VARIOUS OBSERVATIONS AND PERFORM MILLIONS OF CALCULATIONS TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANE BEHAVIOR. THE ATMOSPHERE IN WHICH THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IS VERY IMPORTANT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY AND MOTION. THE SOLUTION FROM THESE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PACKAGED AS GUIDANCE AND EVALUATED BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS WELL AS LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. HURRICANE FORECASTERS MUST LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODEL RESULTS...WHICH FREQUENTLY GIVE WIDELY DIFFERENT PICTURES OF THE FUTURE. WHEN THE MODELS DISAGREE...HURRICANE FORECASTERS MUST USE THEIR EXPERIENCE AND JUDGMENT TO DECIDE WHICH MODEL IS PERFORMING THE BEST UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. A GOOD FORECASTER HAS AN EXTENSIVE EDUCATION IN THE SCIENCE OF METEOROLOGY AND CONSIDERABLE EXPERIENCE IN TROPICAL FORECASTING. FORECASTERS RECOGNIZE THAT CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. THIS IS WHY FORECASTS TALK ABOUT "PROBABILITIES" AND "MARGIN OF ERROR." PRODUCT GENERATION: ONCE FORECASTS...WATCHES...AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GENERATES THE HURRICANE FORECAST AND WARNING PRODUCTS. HURRICANE FORECASTS ARE ISSUED 4 TIMES A DAY WHEN HURRICANES ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CARIBBEAN SEA...OR GULF OF MEXICO. THESE FORECASTS ARE ISSUED AT 5 AM... 11 AM... 5 PM... AND 11 PM EDT. INFORMATION DISSEMINATION: ALL OF THIS HURRICANE FORECAST AND WARNING INFORMATION IS SENT OUT TO ALL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR RELAY TO EVERYONE. TELEVISION...RADIO...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO ARE SOME OF THE BEST MEANS TO GET THE MOST UP TO DATE HURRICANE INFORMATION. THE INTERNET CAN ALSO BE A GREAT SOURCE OF INFORMATION, INCLUDING THE WEB SITES OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV, YOUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV, AND NORTH CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AT HTTP://READYNC.ORG. YOUR LOCAL RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE: THE ROLE OF THE RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IS TO TAKE THE HURRICANE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND LOCALIZE THE THREAT TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE CLOSELY EXAMINES THE THREATS OF WIND...TORNADOES...RAINFALL...AND FLOODING. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO LOCAL AND STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AS WELL AS THE MEDIA. THE RALEIGH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WILL ISSUE RIVER FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO HELP SAVE LIVES FROM FLOOD WATERS THAT OCCUR AFTER A HURRICANE DROPS TORRENTIAL RAIN. TORNADO WARNINGS WILL ALSO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AS FORECASTERS DETECT THEM ON THE DOPPLER RADAR. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/PREPARE HTTP://WWW.READYNC.ORG $$

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