Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 292041
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
141 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST TODAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER STORM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
GRIDS WAS TO REMOVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM ALPINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO MONO
COUNTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INDICATED. FOR
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS, BE AWARE THAT IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE
IN DANGER OF BEING STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

MODEL SOUNDINGS BY MONDAY ARE DISPLAYING A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT, SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM MONO/ALPINE COUNTIES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH NEVADA VALLEY TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS
WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO DEVELOP WEAK AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 25 MPH.

A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FOLKS WHO HAVE PUT OUT THEIR PATIO FURNITURE FOR THE
NICER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. BRISK NORTH FLOW WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROPPING TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE 60S AND THE SIERRA IN THE 50S.
WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...

STORM TRACK LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, CERTAINLY COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND,
AND INCREASED ODDS OF APRIL SHOWERS.

FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ROLLING THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. WHILE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/COLDER THAN PROGRESSIVE EC, OVERALL ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. IT
WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FRESH
NORTH WIND. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 5000 FT SO WE COULD
SEE SOME OF THOSE SPRING PELLET SHOWERS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS.

CHANCES LOOK DECENT FOR GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS OF THE (QUITE SHORT)
TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. GFS/EC
GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

LATE NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE THINGS COULD GET FUN. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
BRINGS A LARGER COLD TROUGH INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO TUESDAY. EVEN SHOWS UP ON THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ANOMALIES AT
500/200MB, WHICH IS A GOOD SIGNAL AT THESE LEAD TIMES. SO THE
OVERALL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW AND A MODEST
PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER CA/NV WOULD SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES OF AN APRIL STORM SUNDAY-TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS,
WHILE SHOWING DIFFERENCES, OVERALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL
INCREASE POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SIERRA AND NE CA,
BUT KEEP THEM <30% FOR TIME BEING. WINDS WOULD ALSO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BULK OF
ANY PRECIP IMPACTS WOULD BE NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. CS

&&

.AVIATION...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/MON.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SOME INSTABILITY NOTED IN GFS/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THAT MAY TRANSLATE TO VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN MINDEN (MEV) AND
MAMMOTH (MMH) LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW
HOWEVER. LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL
KICK THE WESTERLY WINDS UP A BIT EACH DAY, WITH SFC GUSTS 20-30 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TURBULENCE, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND CROSS WIND ISSUES SOMETHING TO
WATCH EACH DAY, BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, FOR RNO/CXP/MMH. CS


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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