Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 272224
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
224 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017
A few snow showers may linger into tonight and early Tuesday,
especially north of Interstate 80 where a fast moving trough of
low pressure will swing through tonight. High pressure will then
bring drier conditions with light winds and cool temperatures
through Wednesday followed by a slow warming trend through
Saturday. The next storm system may bring rain, snow and gusty
winds next weekend.
No substantial changes were made to the short term forecast
today. An upper level wave with a weak surface reflection should
move west to east across the forecast area tonight. The forcing is
not overly strong with this feature...but what forcing does exist
is mainly north of I-80. Isolated to scattered snow showers were
left in place over the northern 1/3 of the forecast area tonight.
A lack of significant moisture will limit any accumulations. The
only other by-product of this feature will be slightly stronger
winds and increased clouds. Lows may not be as low over northern
areas as points south where less cloud cover is evident.
Northwest flow aloft develops by late Tuesday with fairly light
winds at the surface. There be some light northeast flow near the
surface but most valleys will see just light winds. Normally that
would mean increased chances for inversions and poor air quality
but with the sun angle increasing we should see only one day of
below average high temperatures...Tuesday. Lows will be below
average through at least Wednesday morning. A warming trend
starts Wednesday as a ridge starts to strengthen aloft. This will
push high temperatures slightly above average for many areas
Wednesday and Thursday.
.LONG TERM...Friday and beyond...
After a relatively quiet week of weather with seasonable
temperatures and dry conditions it looks like another storm for the
weekend. Weak ridging across the Sierra and western Nevada will
buckle as a strong trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska starting
on Friday and through the weekend.
There has been a trend for the jet associated with this trough to
drop slightly further south with each operational model run and the
latest model simulations did not disappoint. While there are some
latitudinal fluctuations with the jet through the weekend, the
operational models do eventually show the jet along with the trough
moving across northern California around the Sunday-Monday
timeframe. This appears to be a fairly typical winter storm where we
will see a period of strong winds and then rain along with mountain
snow. If you have plans over the weekend keep an eye on the forecast
as strong and gusty winds may impact travel to high profile
vehicles, aviation, and also create choppy conditions on area lakes.
Beyond Monday, the largescale flow becomes more zonal and the jet
lifts north into the Pacific Northwest again. The pattern remains
progressive into next week with no strong signals for (a) a ridge
that would halt the storm potential or (b) a strong atmospheric
river event. However, the atmospheric river ensembles continue to
keep the best chances for moisture remaining north into the Pacific
Isolated showers may linger into Tuesday, with a 20% chance of
one moving over a terminal. Small accumulations would be possible
for Sierra terminals if impacted by a snow shower. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected through Friday.
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