Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 282038
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
138 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND IN
THE 60S FOR THE SIERRA. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR BOTH DAYS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SIERRA. WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY
CUMULUS BUILDUPS, BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK, AS THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AREN`T
SUBSTANTIAL. REMNANTS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA
CREST FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING AN INCREASE
TO THE WINDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASED WINDS AND IMPROVED
MIXING ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AGAIN. TYPICAL AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS (20-25 MPH) ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WHILE STRONGER WIND
GUSTS (30-40 MPH) ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
EDGES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY WINDS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A GERLACH TO SUSANVILLE LINE. WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A STORM MOVING OUT OF OREGON INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ALOFT COULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTIES WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THE 4,000
TO 5,000 FOOT RANGE.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ON THURSDAY. WE EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND 60 IN
WESTERN NV AND IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S FOR EASTERN SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. THE AIR MASS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BUT THEN
MID-RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD-FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD TRACK FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE PREVIOUS (MID-WEEK) SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC, ZONAL AND
PROGRESSIVE, DOES NOT TYPICALLY OPEN THE DOOR TO SIGNIFICANT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. AS SUCH, THE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA IN THE EVENING.
JCM

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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