Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 281011
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
211 AM PST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 INTO MONDAY. A COLDER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VERY COLD WEATHER WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY. UNTIL THEN, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL START
TO DROP SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ONLY SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND
REACH A PORTOLA TO LOVELOCK LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
IT WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 50. VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH ALL AREAS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THAT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED, THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEHIND IT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE
THE BRIEF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL SQUEEZE SOME OF IT OUT, THE
BEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERE, THE BEST THREAT WOULD BE ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR
FROM RENO SOUTH TO MAMMOTH LAKES. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IF THE EC/NAM ARE RIGHT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60 KTS
AT 700 MB NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH A VERY STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT
AND COLD ADVECTION. THE LATEST EC/NAM KEEP THE STRONGEST 700 MB
WINDS FURTHER NORTH BUT HAVE THE STRONG SFC GRADIENT. IT LOOKS
LIKE RIDGE WINDS WILL GUSTS 70 MPH OR MORE WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS
AROUND THE BASIN AT LAKE LEVEL. HOWEVER, IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL DIRECTION AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, THIS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO OF STRONG WINDS IS UNLIKELY, BUT
BEARS WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACT. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HAVE SHOWN
CONTINUITY WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT START
OF PERIOD AND THEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, A RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE EAST
PACIFIC. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

ON WEDNESDAY, STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IN THE UPPER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 40 MPH FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILLS GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE. FOR UPPER ELEVATIONS, TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND FORECAST WINDS WOULD PLACE THE WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO -25F.
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE BASIN WOULD BE THE ROUGH LAKE WATERS ON
TAHOE.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY, WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS ALOFT TURNING MORE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A VERY COLD DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND AND GET BACK CLOSE TO
NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND IF THE
GFS/GEM VERIFY. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE OTHER 00Z RUNS
AS IT SHOWS MORE AMPLIFICATION OF WEST COAST RIDGE. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MONDAY. ANY
FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE
LIMITED IF IT FORMS AT ALL WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING AIRPORT
OPERATIONS. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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