Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 211001
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
301 AM PDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING
HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THIS
WEEKEND DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY AND ONLY REGARDED UPDATING
FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. DID TREND RH LOWER SINCE SUNDAY MINIMUMS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DROPPED TO THE LOWER TEENS EVEN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL
STUNT RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A SLOWER MOISTENING TREND
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, BUMPED WINDS UP A
LITTLE; GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
PUSH INTO THE NEVADA INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS A LITTLE CHAOTIC WITH MULTIPLE LOWS AND
EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBES. ONE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SHIFTING INLAND INTO VERY SOUTHERN NEVADA. MEANWHILE A TROUGH
APPROACHES OUT OF THE PACIFIC TODAY INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SIERRA INTO VERY WESTERN NEVADA. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD START OUT WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE INDUCING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM SOLAR HEAT GAIN. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES, THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOR OVER ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS.
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS WITH SUFFICIENT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WOULD BE COMMON FROM CELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
WITH 50+ POSSIBLE FROM LARGER CELLS.

AS TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE SIERRA, CLOUD COVER INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIMITING THE STRENGTH POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE STRONGLY
FORCED CELLS ALONG THE CLOUD-SHIELD EDGE OR WHERE BREAKS OCCUR.
THESE CELLS WOULD BE FEWER AND FARTHER IN BETWEEN THAN THE
POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE NEVADA INTERIOR AS WELL WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT WITH SIERRA VALLEYS DROPPING TO AROUND 20%. EVEN
THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON (GUSTS
AROUND 25 UP TO 30 MPH), FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE
LOWER END OF THE SCALE SINCE SMALL FUELS HAVEN`T CURED YET. STILL,
A FEW FIRE STARTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES,
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LARGER FUELS ARE DROUGHT
STRESSED. THE FIRE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN AS TEMPERATURES
COOL THROUGH THE WEEK AND AS HUMIDITY RISES. BOYD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH FRIDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE
LAST DECENT SHOT AT SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THEN,
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND WARMER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT THE MODELS HAD THREATENED TO BRING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY.

WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE, SHOWERS LOOK LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS SO DID NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON WEST WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO OREGON ON
SATURDAY, BUT WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND RIDGING OVERALL EXPECTED
TO BUILD NEAR THE WEST COAST, EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.
LEFT IN THE MENTION NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ELSEWHERE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AS THE LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S FOR
WESTERN NV AND THE 60S FOR THE SIERRA. WITH A BIT OF A WEST FLOW
ALOFT, IT WILL FEEL SOMEWHAT SUMMER-LIKE WITH THE MILD TEMPS AND A
DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZE SIMILAR TO THE ZEPHYR. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY AS THE MODELS KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 20-03Z, BUT THEY
WILL BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A FEW MOVING INTO EXTREME WESTERN
NEVADA. MOST TERMINALS IN THE SIERRA WILL BE AFFECTED WITH VCTS AT
TIMES AND A 20% CHANCE OF A DIRECT HIT. FOR KCXP/KRNO, THE BETTER
CHANCE IS MORE NEAR AND AFTER 00Z WHILE LITTLE THREAT FOR KLOL/KNFL.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 35 KTS AND SMALL HAIL. LCL MVFR CONDS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
STORMS WITH OCNL LTG.

OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. VFR AGAIN AFTER 03Z
AS STORMS DIMINISH WITH MORE STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY 19-04Z. WED LOOKS
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE, AND THE THREATS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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