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000
FXUS65 KREV 200952
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
252 AM PDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING
BACK TO AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IT TURNS COOLER FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME REINFORCING COOL AIR MOVING
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS SITUATED OVER IDAHO`S WESTERN STATE
LINE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THE RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES, BUT THIS IS LIKELY
OVERBLOWN SINCE DRY AIR WILL BE ENSCONCED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA. CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY WITH
A MORE POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SOME JET DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO
PLAY WITH A JET STREAK EXITING NEVADA LATE IN THE MORNING ON
FRIDAY. THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO FOR WIDESPREAD WIND
ENHANCEMENT SINCE THE JET IS EXITING PRIOR TO THE WARMER AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE, BREEZIEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL NEVADA
WHILE WESTERN NEVADA GUSTS ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 20 MPH
RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PERSHING, CHURCHILL, AND MINERAL COUNTIES. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT TO SLOW THE COOLING TREND
ANOTHER DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING INTO THE WEST
COAST VICINITY OF NORTHERN CA-OREGON. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM WERE
THE MOST SOUTHERN MODEL RUNS WITH THE QPF FIELDS WHILE THE ECMWF
REPRESENTED A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH ITS PRIMARY AIM AT THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES/COASTAL RANGE. SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN FINAL
LOCATION OF MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS UNCHANGED AT MODERATE. DESPITE
THIS UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO
REACH THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS HIGH AND THUS POPS
WERE INCREASED TO HIGHER CHANCE FOR THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME FOR THESE
AREAS WHILE THE REST OF WESTERN NV AND CENTRAL SIERRA WERE MOSTLY
UNCHANGED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. THAT MEANS UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS IN
THE TAHOE BASIN, RENO, AND BASIN AND RANGE AROUND LOVELOCK/FALLON IS
HIGHEST AS THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN AND NO RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE FAIRLY ABRUPT. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF SUSANVILLE UP INTO THE
SURPRISE VALLEY STAND AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME WETTING
RAINS AND POPS WILL PROBABLY NEED RAISING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS MODEL CERTAINTY INCREASES. COOLED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
FAR NORTH ON MONDAY WHILE LOWERING READINGS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARM-UP WILL GET GOING IN EARNEST WED AND BEYOND AS A
RIDGE INTENSIFIES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND UPPER JET RETREATS TO
THE NORTH. HOHMANN

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT.
HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)