Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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198
FXUS65 KREV 300956
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
256 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Cool conditions and gusty northeast winds are expected today,
with a few showers mainly south of Highway 50. Warmer temperatures
are expected from Sunday through Tuesday with a chance for showers
and a few thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. A return to
cooler and wetter conditions is possible later next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Most of the shower activity has diminished with light precip
generally limited to Mono-Mineral Counties, with a second area of
wrap around rain in eastern Pershing County. With a moist air mass
in place a few light sprinkles may occur a bit farther north to
near I-80 through daybreak. Any leftover snow or slush on higher
Sierra passes will melt quickly during the morning. By this
afternoon, drier air spreading south across the region will bring
an end to nearly all lingering shower activity.

The main weather effect today will be a brisk north to northeast
wind with gusts 30-40 mph which will keep area lakes choppy, and
temperatures across the region a few degrees below average. By
tonight, winds will diminish in most lower elevations although
some localized choppy conditions may develop along the west shores
of Lake Tahoe. Over the Sierra ridges, northeast to east gusts up
to 55 mph will continue,

For Sunday and Monday, temperatures will warm up to near or
slightly above average, with highs near or above 70 degrees for
many lower elevations. However, we will not be finished with
precipitation chances, as weak disturbances will produce some
instability leading to some showers and thunderstorms forming
each afternoon-evening. For Sunday, the convective potential
looks to be mainly near the Sierra from Tahoe southward, and
western NV south of US-50. For Monday, the more favored areas for
convection appear to spread northward to include most of the
Sierra, northeast CA, and far western NV from the Reno-Carson-
Minden vicinity northward to the Oregon border. There is still
some level of uncertainty for where storms may develop since the
locations of these disturbances vary among the model guidance
sources. MJD

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

Elongated trough off the west coast is expected to progress inland
during this period and some model solutions are faster with its
arrival. Due to some uncertainty with regard to smaller scale
features and exact positioning of upper low center, we have moved
the timing up just a bit, although not as aggressive as some model
members suggest. This meant increasing pops for Wednesday/Wednesday
night and cooling temperatures a bit faster.

For Tuesday, the flow is more southerly compared to previous
model runs, and thus moisture and some instability will remain
present for isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.
Like Monday, we spread slight chance pops to much of eastern
Sierra and northern areas Tuesday afternoon/evening. For
Wednesday, clouds will overspread the region as trough approaches
the coast. Thus, temperatures will not be quite as warm,
especially for the Sierra where showers should be on the increase.
The cloud cover could limit instability and thunder but we kept
the mention in the forecast for now.

For Thursday/Friday, some spread in track/timing of upper low begins
to become more apparent as system moves inland across the southwest
CONUS. Regardless of track, it is likely we will see some cooling
and some shower/thunder potential. Thus we maintained a general
chance of precipitation. However, there could be periods of more
extensive shower activity if upper low takes a route on the north
side of the ensemble suite. Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

A brisk north to northeast flow will prevail today on the back edge
of exiting shortwave. Surface winds will gust 25-30 kt with
ridges gusting to 60-65 kt. Winds will gradually diminish late
this afternoon and evening over lower elevations, but likely stay
up overnight for ridges as ridge level flow remains quite strong.
Expect moderate turbulence this evening through Saturday
especially over and near the Sierra.

Isolated-scattered showers will be confined mainly east of KLOL and
south of Hwy 50 this morning with coverage more isolated this
afternoon. Low clouds will continue to bank against the eastern
Sierra from Markleeville southward to KMMH, where terrain
obscurement could persist much of the morning and possibly into
the afternoon. Hohmann

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ002-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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