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000
FXUS65 KREV 112226
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. INCREASED WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAY`S STORMS GETS PUSHED EASTWARD. JET NOSE IS PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8PM.

SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS CREATING A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE FAST
MOVING AND PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN SHIFT FURTHER INTO EASTERN
NEVADA TONIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING THE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 700MB WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 30-35KTS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA, WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL
NEVADA. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS
WELL, WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON LAKE TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKE. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

BY THURSDAY, THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND, WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN CA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE ON
THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT BRINGS STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MOIST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. HOON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED IN CURRENT
MODEL RUNS AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS EACH DAY AS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. FLOW WILL
BECOME ENHANCED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK DEVELOPS
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. BY MID WEEK, LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE BEGINNING
TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO VERY NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. SINCE GFS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
OUTPERFORMING THE ECMWF IN THE LONG TERM, WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THEM OVER THE EC. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE
COUNTIES AS WELL AS EASTERN MODOC MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE, BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PEAK AFTERNOON GUSTS SHOULD REACH
35 KTS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS. HOON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND
  GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALLING WILL BELOW 15% DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA. RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF
WASHOE COUNTY AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES
JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA, BUT GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

JET WINDS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
SIERRA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A SWATH OF DRIER AIR ALOFT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE JET THE WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 2-6PM
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WINDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE LESS THAN WEDNESDAY, BUT
OVERALL BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED WITH THE MORE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON WEST WINDS OFF THE SIERRA.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT
A LOW REACHING THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS THIS WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ453-459.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ450.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ001.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ004.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ071.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ073.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ272-273.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)