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000
FXUS65 KREV 181704
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1004 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUN SHOWS SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH PWATS IN THE 0.40-0.50 RANGE. LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY AM
SEEING SOME WAVE CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THIS MORNING. SO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT AND
SOME WARMING ALOFT LATER TODAY AM THINKING THAT DEEP CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THUS WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND REEVALUATE FOR THE EARLY EVENING AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SYNOPSIS...

WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS DUE TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS, COOLER CONDITIONS, AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO THE WEST COAST,
BUT WILL BE HELD BACK BY A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING DECENT INSTABILITY AND THERE IS A JET MAX PRESENT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO WARMING ALOFT HELPING TO CAP
DEEPER CONVECTION. AS THE WAVE PASSES, WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL BRING
LOCALLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO AREA LAKES, ESPECIALLY PYRAMID LAKE
WHICH RESPONDS WELL TO NORTH WINDS. NO LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, LIMITING THE WARMING POTENTIAL. FLOW TURNS BACK
TO THE WEST MONDAY, AND THE INCREASED MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DF

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TREND TO A COOLER,
BREEZY PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THEY STILL DIFFER ON THE DEPTH OF
THE TROUGH AND THUS HOW COLD/RAIN CHANCES WED AND BEYOND. EC IS
OVERALL DEEPER THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN WHILE THE GFS IS FLATTER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE LOW IN WASHINGTON. GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT OVERALL AS 12Z EC KEPT THE LOW FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL,
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES AS THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH NO PREFERRED SOLUTION YET.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS WINDY WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. IT WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT AND MODELS
ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS COULD GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
WEAKENING BEHIND. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LESS WINDY AND COOLER AND STILL
DRY AS THE DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR THURS/FRI, EC BRINGS LOW FURTHER SOUTH MOVING NORTH OF I-80
THURSDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING SOME PRECIP CHANCES WHILE GFS REMAINS DRY.
HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH BOTH
DAYS AS A COMPROMISE AND ALSO KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. WITH A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER NEVADA.
WALLMANN

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY W-NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE
NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS INCLUDING TERMINALS FROM 21-04Z.
WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)