Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 240741
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
141 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

A quiet beginning to the forecast period, with continued
high pressure. Light wind is expected over the area with generally
dry conditions through Monday morning. Models then showing a weak
push of moisture across southern Wyoming, which may fire off a few
storms across southern Sweetwater county. Additionally, this push
may result in some gusty wind during the late afternoon hours,
especially over the corridor between Rock Springs and Casper.

This pattern generally remains over the area for the next few days.
Weak pushes of moisture will generate some afternoon hours and
thunderstorms, especially over the northern mountains. Any
thunderstorm activity over the next few days will have the potential
for gusty wind.

Periodic light wind will permit smoke to move over the lower lying
basins, potentially creating some air quality issues for residents.
Current flow will keep smoke generally impacting areas east of the
Continental Divide.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

Models continue to show a weak cold front pushing south, east of
the Divide Wednesday and remaining quasi-stationary east of the
Divide Thursday and Friday. In wake of this front a more moist
environment will be in place. This additional moisture with peak
heating and better shear should result in isolated to perhaps scattered
convection along and east of the Divide with an emphasis on
Thursday. West of the Divide will remain in a dry atmosphere with
little or no convection expected at precipitable water values
remain at or below 0.50 of an inch, while areas east of the Divide
could approach 1 inch Thursday and Friday. Ridging is progged to
build into the area Saturday and Sunday with the front washing
out with a drier and warmer airmass pushing back into the area.

Southwest WY could see elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday
and perhaps Thursday...as some moderate westerly winds try to mix
down in an already very dry air mass.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Monday. Smoke will occur in
areas where active wildfires are occurring. This will impact
visibility at times in the valleys through 18z. Smoke plumes aloft
are expected in the afternoon and evening. Wind speeds will be light
at terminal sites east of the divide today. Wind speeds west of the
divide at terminal sites will range from 8 to 15 knots during the
afternoon and early evening...then become light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions generally expected over the next few days,
especially through Monday morning. Weak pushes of moisture may
generate a few showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, with
gusty wind possible. A return of mostly dry conditions will then
occur, with most shower activity expected to remain confined to the
northern mountains. Windy conditions are generally not expected over
the next few days, though a slight increase in wind is expected
Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Calm wind otherwise will be a
detriment to smoke dispersal, with smoke expected to move over the
basins east of the Continental Divide under continued southwest
flow.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Branham
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Branham



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