Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 270916
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
316 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

QUIET CONDITIONS NOTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...THOUGH
COOLING CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. THE
ANTICIPATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
STATE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY BY NOON TODAY.

AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL TURN INTO AN OPEN
WAVE INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN ELEVATED...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TODAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

THE WAVE WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT
WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING PATTERN WORKS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LEAVE WEAK
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY. THIS TRAPPED MOISTURE
MAY CREATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FAIRLY ACTIVE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE COWBOY STATE
AS A TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY SPED UP
THE TROUGH AND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WEST SATURDAY...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED/EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND THE ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...THE TREND OF A FASTER SOLUTION HAS MEANT
INCREASING/EXPANDING POPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES OF VARYING
INTENSITIES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE TROUGH IMPACTING THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY WAVE WILL BROAD BRUSH POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH AN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COULD EASILY SEE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ABOVE 9500 FEET.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A MAINLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER
THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
IMPACTING TERMINAL SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KBPI TO KCPR
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. SEE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS. AREAS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
SHOWERS DECREASE AND CEILINGS RISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 07Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS SHOWERS BECOME ISOLATED.

OVER THE NORTH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM 19Z UNTIL 02Z...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE WYOMING AND COLORADO BORDER
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT TODAY. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN WYOMING WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE
LOOKS PLENTIFUL WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE
THREATS WITH ACTIVITY TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL WANE TONIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES FURTHER EAST. DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH RETURNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COOLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MINIMAL TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







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