Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 230513
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1113 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

INSTABILITY LINGERS IN NORTHERN WYOMING WITH MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS
FLIRTING WITH OUR NORTHERN WYOMING BORDER THIS EVE...ESPECIALLY FAR
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY AS STORMS MOVE UP AND OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WYOMING AS WINDS INCREASE...RH DROPS TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AND TEMPS HEAT UP WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. EXPECT HIGHS AS HOT AS THE
UPPER 90S WED AFTERNOON IN THE BIG HORN. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE
TOO LIGHT TO WAR RENT ANY FIRE WEATHER HILITES NORTH OF THE OWL
CREEK MTNS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPANDING UPPER 4-CORNERS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPIC PLUME
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SERN AZ TO LIFT NWD TOWARDS US OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY TRAJECTORY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT OUR SERN
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THIS PLUME OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. PROBABLY ALSO ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO FIRE A FEW STORMS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WITH A
FEW TRYING TO GET OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER GREEN AND NE TO
THE GRASS CREEK AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOIST SE FLOW WILL BE ON
OUR ERN FRINGES UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE SW WINDS KICK
IN PUSHING THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER MOISTURE STORMS TO THE EAST.
COULD SEE A BRIEF STORM FIRE IN JOHNSON...ESPECIALLY ERN BEFORE THE
SW WINDS DRY THEM OUT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
INCREASING FIRE WX CONCERNS. ON THURSDAY...PACNW LOW MOVES INLAND
WITH INCREASING HOT...WLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN HIGHER FIRE
WX CONCERNS AS MORE WIND AND A FRONT WILL COME INTO PLAY. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY STILL IN THE FAR SERN
ZONES IF THE WLY MID LEVEL DOESN`T SWEEP ALL THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT. DRY AND QUITE WARM TO HOT ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WASHES OUT IN ALL
BUT THE NRN OR NERN ZONES. OUR UPPER LOW TO THE NE WILL DROP INTO
THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WITH RISING SURFACE PRESSURES TO OUR N AND NE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY NW FLOW WITH COOLER READINGS. STILL WARM BUT
NOT THE INTENSE HEAT THAT WILL SEE FOR A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK. RIDGE
AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO WRN WYOMING ON MONDAY WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME EDGING INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE
EDGING INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL WYOMING BY THE EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY HIGH BASED GUSTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THROUGH 09Z...SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM CONVECTION IN MONTANA
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OR SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS JOHNSON/NATRONA AND
THE BIG HORN BASIN. HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY AROUND 09Z.
OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE RULE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST...AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE RETURN OF A GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON







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