Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 202109
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
309 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

West flow will bring Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
with strong gusty winds to the area this evening.  A series of weak
cold frontal surges will move south each day through the week cooling
temperatures and bringing more north to northeast winds.  The air mass
will become more stable with diminishing showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

West flow with rather dry conditions is expected with gradual warming
through the weekend and early next week.  Winds are expected to be
rather light.  Some showers and thunderstorms may return Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

West of the Continental Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals

Expect conditions to remain VFR through 00Z/Thu. Midday convection
will move off the higher terrain and track east-southeast over the
basins and valleys through early Tuesday evening. Gusty outflow wind
of 30-40kts will be the main hazard. KJAC represents the best chance
for rain and potentially very small hail. Convection will push east
and wane between 02Z-03Z/Wed and the atmosphere should decouple by
this time with gusty 15-25kt surface winds decreasing by 02Z/Wed.
Cloud cover will decrease overnight and conditions will remain dry
through the remainder of the forecast period. Gusty surface wind will
increase Wednesday between 19Z-21Z with speeds 15-25kts.

East of the Continental Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals

Conditions will remain VFR through 00Z/Thu. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop over the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon.
Coverage will be greatest over the Absaroka Range and points downstream
in west-northwest flow aloft. The main hazard will be gusty outflow wind
up to 45kts as dry sub-cloud environment looks capable of supporting
these speeds. Best chance for rain or small hail through early Tuesday
evening will be at KCOD where surface moisture is a little more
favorable and terminal is near the higher terrain. Surface winds will
be from the west to northwest at 14-24kts through at least mid-evening.
Wind will hang-on the longest at KRIW where northwest wind is favored.
Central Wyoming, around KCPR, may still see a period of more organized
convection between 01Z-05Z/Wed. After this time, cloud cover will
dissipate, conditions will be dry, and surface winds should be less than
10kts. Surface wind will increase again Wednesday beginning late morning
at KCOD with the push of south-moving boundary. Surface winds at other
terminals will increase by mid-afternoon with the highest speeds of
12-25kts at KRIW and KLND in the northwest-favored Wind River Basin.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 302 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

West flow will bring Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
with strong gusty winds to the area this evening.  A series of weak
cold frontal surges will move south each day through the week cooling
temperatures and bringing more north to northeast winds.  The air mass
will become more stable with diminishing showers and thunderstorms.
The air mass will be unstable enough with sufficient wind for very
good to excellent smoke dispersal in the afternoons.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Jones
FIRE WEATHER...Baker



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