Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 281524
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY.  MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
THIS WEEKEND.  COLD FRONTS CROSS MONDAY AND THEN NEARLY EVERY OTHER
DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE. EXTENDED LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADDED MINOR ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE SNOW RAPIDLY
TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

700 UPDATE UPDATE...
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN RANDOLPH COUNTY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FCST ON
TRACK. SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR MUCH OF WV AND SW VA FOR ICY
SPOTS RESULTING FROM THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

PREV DISCN...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE NWLY FLOW...HAS HELPED TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN WV ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING...AS THE STRATUS
DECK SLOWLY ERODES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT...STILL LOOKING AT OVERALL A CLOUDY DAY...AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM SURFACE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY FILTERS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND H8 SAT AND
SAT NT...IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE E COAST...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.  THIS
INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE.  ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE CAN GET 2-3 KFT DEEP...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE TO
MEASURE ACROSS NWRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUN NT AND THEN CROSSES ON MON.  HAVE A
BAND OF LIKELY POPS EITHER SIDE OF WHAT APPEARS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT
WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG IT MON.  THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE
AREA MON NT...TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...WITH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

BLENDED IN MET AND CONSENSUS DATA FOR HIGHS FOR LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED MOS AND A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWER HIGHS MON
GIVEN A FASTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
AFTER A SYSTEM PASSES TUE-WED...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES WED NT
AND THU PER ISC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SPELLS A
COLDER AND DRIER SOLN....USING GFS40 AND CONSENSUS MOS TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISCN...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS ALONG AND WEST OF A
CRW-CKB LINE...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MVFR IN FLURRIES TIL 18Z. EAST OF A
CRW-CKB LINE...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TIL 20Z...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWERING TO IFR
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY 22Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 12Z.  LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS MAY VARY 1 TO 2 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM/RPY
AVIATION...JMV/SL










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.