Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP
COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. WITH CLEARING AND NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER...TO NEAR RECORD AT FEW PLACES.

SOME PLACES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED ARE AT...

     FCST    RECORD   DATE
BKW   15       17     1966
CRW   19       22     1966

GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND INTO
MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE ROLLS
ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. LOW DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 22Z. ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TO EAST...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND CALM AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ







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