Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 251824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND
KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER
INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR
STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT
STRATOCU AREAWIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30








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