Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231041
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
641 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy
rain through tonight. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper
level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Friday...

Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm.

As of 345 AM Friday...

Deep southwest flow will bring moisture associated with tropical
depression Cindy to the area through tonight. Models show high
dewpoints...in the upper 60s...and pwats reaching 2 inches
suggest showers and storms could produce heavy rain. Available
moisture, diurnal heating, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots
and sfc CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg mainly along the OH
River suggest some storms could produce damaging winds and
periods of heavy rain. The freezing level is about 15 kft.
Therefore the threat for large hail is low.

SPC have portions of southeast OH and WV and northeast KY in a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A flash
flood watch is in effect for the entire CWA until 6 AM Saturday.

Tonight, the remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be
passing over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front will push
east reinforcing instability and moisture. Very heavy rain is more
likely tonight.

Total QPF of near one inch is forecast across southeast OH, and
decrease towards the east. Tonight, the rainfall axis shifts to
the east diagonally across central WV with a QPF maxima of 2
inches across northeast KY, and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere.

Overall, in the next 24 hours can expect a widespread 1.5 to 3
inches with locally heavy amounts through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Saturday brings light west to northwest flow in the wake of the
exiting cold front, and remnants of once tropical storm Cindy.
Showers lingering in the mountains, with the help of the
upslope flow, first thing Saturday morning, will diminish
during the morning hours, an end altogether by late afternoon.
Low level moisture will be steadily eradicated from west to
east.

The exodus of the rain first thing Saturday morning will allow
any flood waters to recede on Saturday, with the exception of
some larger streams, and mainstem rivers.

The remainder of the period will feature a long wave upper level
trough in the eastern United States, with a long wave ridge over
the Rocky mountains. This will bring cooler and less humid
weather, giving the area the opportunity to further dry out.

A series of upper level troughs will rotate through the long
wave trough during this period. The first will cross the Great
Lakes early Sunday, leaving the forecast area on the
anticyclonic shear side of the upper level jet, resulting in a
dry day. The second will cross Sunday night and then the third
Monday night. That third one will bring a mainly diurnally
driven chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening across the northern half of the forecast area. This
precipitation will largely be scattered and light.

Temperatures close to central guidance, a little below MOS for
highs on Saturday, otherwise close, and generally falling below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

The long wave upper level trough, still over the eastern United
States on Tuesday, lifts out Wednesday, while the upper level
ridge over the Rocky mountains flattens. The exodus of the
trough is marked by one last embedded short wave trough moving
through first thing Tuesday morning. The chance for mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
will depend upon the speed of the exodus of this trough, with a
quick demise at sunset if not earlier. This will lead to a
clear, calm and cool radiative night Tuesday night, as a large
surface high pressure system crosses.

Wednesday will be a nice day as the high moves off to the east,
giving way to a light return southerly flow.

After a dry but not as cool Wednesday night, forecast
uncertainty increases Thursday and Friday, in the zonal upper
level flow. Models bring a weak upper level short wave trough
north of the area Thursday, but disagree on weather it can
summon enough moisture in the low level southerly return flow,
to generate precipitation.

Another upper level trough approaches from the west on Friday,
bringing in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Central guidance temperatures accepted, except to cool the
valleys a bit beneath high pressure Wednesday morning. A warming
trend ensues on highs and lows Wednesday through Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

Radar images show most of the convection has moved east and
northeast aways from the area. MVFR ceiling deck remains affecting
PKB, CKB, and EKN this morning. Conditions will improve shortly
after sunrise across most sites.

However, moisture from Tropical Depression Cindy, diurnal
heating and deep layered shear will produce showers and
thunderstorms mainly across portions of northeast KY, Southeast
OH and northern WV this afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate
as a cold front approaches from the west and a low pressure
system rides along the front to produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. Periods of IFR/LIFR
conditions will be likely along the heavier showers or storms.

Models are in agreement in bringing a wave of showers and
thunderstorms around 18-20Z this afternoon, particuarly across
southeast Ohio, shifting eastward across the area towards 00Z
Saturday and beyond. Expect heavy downpours, IFR/LIFR
conditions, and the possibility of strong damaging winds.

Most of the area is under a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms. Expect amendment will be required especially
damaging winds and visibility.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of any MVFR conditions
overnight may vary from forecast. Timing and development of tsra
on Friday may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.