Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 190758
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
258 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes into the region tonight. Active pattern
returns with a warm front crossing Friday followed by a
stronger system early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...

Several forecast challenges through the near term period. The
first is the clouds through this morning. Currently have low
stratus in place across much of CWA, however southern edge is
slowly eroding. Continued this trend, relying fairly heavily on
the 4kNAM. Even as the low clouds erode, cirrus is already
spreading over the forecast area ahead of surface warm front and
upper level negatively tilted trough that will arrive tonight.

And that is the second forecast challenge -- timing precip with
the system overnight. Did not make any huge changes to previous
forecast, although did revise timing and tried to tighten the
leading gradient used a blend of the 4kNAM and WRFnmm. Have an
area of likely POPs entering from the SW around 00Z tonight, and
transitioning NE across the forecast area overnight. Generally
have 0.2-0.3 inches of rain with this. Held off on any mention
of thunder due to the time of day, but with decent upper level
support would not be overly surprised to get a rumble or two.
Although it does look like better upper level support may be
lagging behind by a couple hours.

Expecting a mild day today, with the pattern of above normal
highs continuing. Have temps dropping a little late this
evening, but then rebounding some through the pre-dawn hours of
Friday as WAA kicks in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

Warm front lifts north on Friday for another round of
precipitation with 0.25" of QPF expected and temperatures still
remaining well above normal. In between systems Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

Deepening 979 mb low approaches from the south on Sunday night
with its trajectory just to our east leaving the area in the
comma head which could lay down a line of high QPF amounts and
this bears watching for flooding concerns. At the same time,
cold air begins to wrap around the system from the north and
snow may be a concern especially in the mountains. Snow showers
should linger into Tuesday in the mountains while it still
looks warm enough for rain elsewhere.

Weak front brushes the area Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Thursday...

To start the period, have mainly MVFR in low stratus. This will
erode some from the south, but may lower some across the north.
So have improving conditions through pre-dawn south, and
ceilings lowering to IFR across the north. As the clouds break
up across the south, may get some fog formation. Models not real
excited about this at TAF sites, possibly due to cirrus already
overspreading the area, but opted to include at least some MVFR
fog at HTS and CRW. Relatively low confidence on this, and may
go either way -- little to no fog or possibly dense IFR fog.

Remaining low clouds will break up through the day. A warm front
will lift through tonight with showers. For now will keep things
MVFR, however could be brief IFR in heavier showers...mainly
after 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of stratus deck clearing could vary. Fog
may form overnight in areas where stratus clears.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 01/19/17
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    M    L    H    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain late Thursday night into Friday, and then
again at times Sunday through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ



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