Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 271440
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1040 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area today kicking off heavy rain
showers. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday. Cooler
and drier remainder of week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Noted some convective initiation across southeast ohio at this
time with elevated convection exiting our eastern zones. With cap
erosion taking place, we will see general upswing in single cell
convection with additional development driven primarily by outflow
boundaries, with a more linear line developing this afternoon.

Storms will produce heavy downpours in this moisture rich
environment and light mid to upper level flow. In addition, soils
remain at or near saturation from previous rainfall. So, flash
flood watch warranted.

Made minor adjustments to pop values for today, based on latest
short term models, timing the line into the kcrw area 17Z-20Z. No
changes to forecasted max min temps thru Tuesday.

Flash flood watch remains in effect today. Turn around don`t
drown. Be safe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models in agreement with upper level disturbance over the great
lakes moving southeast. Trailing cold front will move through the
region. Moisture is lacking with this front. Not expecting much
other than clouds and a few showers...mainly over the mountain
zones by late afternoon and evening...before exiting tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in late tuesday night and
Wednesday with cooler and drier air. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday with noticeable cooler temperatures.
Pleasant temperatures expected Wednesday night under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A west to northwest flow pattern aloft with broad high pressure at
surface...will dominate this period. The Canadian high pressure
center itself does shift east of the area by Thursday...but still
dominates with mostly dry weather...and also with a warming trend.
Temperatures will rebound to around normal values this period...but
nights will still be on the cool side. Models do show some low level
moisture coming back on southeast flow around the high. This will
mainly affect east facing slopes of the mountains with increased
clouds...and only a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR until MVFR/IFR shra/tsra forms midday thru the aftn so have
maintained VCTS wording across most terminals in the afternoon,
but only hinted at sub-VFR in TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight cats may need to be lower in tsra
this aftn.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
     013>018-024>029-034>038-046.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC/JW
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/30



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