Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ


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