Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
FXUS61 KRLX 250727
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
327 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure through Wednesday. Strong cold front crosses
Thursday, and another possibly on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Tuesday...
High pressure will be in control today today and overall it looks
like picture perfect weather. We will see plenty of sunshine, and
with the low dew points we will see a large diurnal swing.
Although we start out in the mid 30s in most areas, by this afternoon
we will recover back into the low 60s nearly everywhere. However,
it will be cooler and in the 50s across the far northern CWA and
in the Eastern West Virginia Mountain Counties. By late afternoon
we will also see an increase in mid to upper level clouds and
they will likely linger into tonight. This will make for low
temperatures a bit warmer for early tomorrow morning, so not
expecting as many areas of frost that we saw this morning.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...
A high pressure system moves east over the VA coast, allowing a
warm front to lift north Wednesday night. Mostly sunny skies will
be replaced by upper to mid level clouds as a strong cold front approaches.
Models show a weak CAPE, strong shear environment characterize
the state of the atmosphere Thursday. The cold front will bring
showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday.
Used a blend of models for temperature through the period.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...
Descent cold air advection behind Thursday`s cold front could
produce some lingering light precipitation or drizzle into
Another front arrives on Saturday, with limited moisture and
abundant deep layered shear and low CAPE. Light rain or drizzle
will linger into Sunday.
Used a blend of models for temperatures and PoPs through the
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 AM Tuesday...
High pressure over the region with dry air in place. I have
removed IFR fog from the all areas with the issuance of the 06Z
forecast. Right now RADAR is showing low level flow of about 25
knots and this is nearly 10 to 15 knots higher than what forecast
models are showing. The stronger flow should cause just enough
mixing in the lower atmosphere to prevent fog formation. There may
be some really light MVFR fog still at PKB and CRW near daybreak,
but confidence is low at this time, anyhow it should have only
brief minimal impacts to operations. At EKN some low level stratus
is pushing in and MVF ceilings will be possible through the
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high overnight, and then high on
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some fog is still possible but it appears it
will be short lived and of the MVFR variety. Still unclear whether
EKN will see MVFR ceilings this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible Wednesday morning. Brief IFR possible
in showers Thursday.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ008>011-
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-