Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 290030
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
826 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance Sunday in the
mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Based on current radar trends and meso model trends...will raise
pops in northeastern West Virginia this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Afternoon heating, precipitable water around 1.25 and some buoyancy
will keep low chance pops sunday night. Although low level moisture
decreases some, there will be enough instability and moisture to
keep isolated showers or storms on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front
approaches from the west bringing better chance for showers or
storms.

The GFS and ECMWF show decreasing QPF Sunday night and early Monday.
While the GFS show afternoon convection, the ECMWF keeps light
showers for the whole day Monday. Went with a compromise between
these two models coding chance PoPs.

Models are in agreement bringing dry conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced
by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain
under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and
Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over
elevations of 3000 feet and higher.

A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid
Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general
track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and
then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting
upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic
states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is
caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east
across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive
a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions this evening outside of a couple of showers.
Some fog may form in protected mountain valleys late tonight...but
confidence is not high due to higher clouds moving in later tonight.
Moisture from the tropical system along the east coast will skirt
eastern portions of the area on Sunday. All area could see some
showers and/or thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of fog late tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 05/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY



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