Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 211817
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
117 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm through the week. Weak system tonight into
Wednesday. Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weather
for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Forecast on track this very dry day.

As of 1045 AM Tuesday...

Forecast on track other than to hold back the showers arriving
from the southwest slightly later today.

As of 345 AM Tuesday...

Currently under high pressure. Should see increasing clouds
today as a system approaches the region. Despite the clouds,
temperatures still should make it to 70 F.

Light rain showers should begin to make it into the region
shortly before midnight. Slow moving system lingers into
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

Linger likely POPs across far southern CWA into Wednesday
morning. A warm front lifts through Thursday. Models still
struggling some to agree on this, with the ECMWF keeping most
precip north of the CWA, while NAM and GFS have it farther south
across us. And even then, NAM seems quite a bit more robust with
it than the GFS. Stuck with chance POPs across the area,
envisioning at least some scattered showers. If the NAM is
right, should also get some thunder, while GFS and especially
the ECMWF do not indicate much of a thunder chance. With this in
mind, dropped thunder mention to slight chance.

Temperatures will remain warm, hedged on the warmer side of
consensus guidance for highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s
across the lowlands both Wednesday and Thursday. Even the
mountains should be pushing 60 degrees on Thursday afternoon
with decent WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

Friday looks mainly dry, and very warm as we are firmly in the
warm sector of a strong low crossing the Northern Plains. This
will drive a strong cold front through Friday night, with
showers and thunderstorm. With overnight timing, threat of
severe weather should remain to our west, but bears watching as
we could still see 40-50kt shear.

GFS continues to indicate a broad area of wrap-around moisture
while ECMWF continues with quick cut off late Saturday as a
surface high noses in. Lingered low POPs into Saturday night. Cold
enough air in place at this point to see some snow flakes
across the mountains with this.

Model differences continue Sunday into Sunday night as the ECMWF
keeps the high in place, while the GFS has a quick moving cold
front fly through. Went with slight chance POPs with this Sunday
night. GFS is cold enough for this to be light snow across CWA,
while ECMWF is about 5 degrees warmer at 850mb and would only
indicate potential for some flakes across the north.

More organized system approaching from the west on Monday, so
start ramping POPs up late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

After a VFR afternoon, a weak wave is likely to bring showers
across mainly southern portions of the area tonight into
Wednesday, lowering visibilities and then ceilings to MVFR
overnight across southern sites HTS, CRW and BKW.

The showers will gradually taper off from west to east on
Wednesday. Visibilities will improve to VFR during the day, but
MVFR ceilings are likely to linger throughout the area
throughout the day.

Surface flow will generally be light south to southeast beneath
light south to southwest flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High becoming medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low MVFR ceilings approaching IFR in the
HTS tri- state area beginning early Tuesday may not be quite as
low as forecast. MVFR timing and extent may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW
NEAR TERM...TRM/JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM



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