Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 111448
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
948 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Next upper trough and cold front move in tonight, with a
stronger upper trough on Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Monday...

No changes were made at this time. Current forecast is on
track.

As of 545 AM Monday...

Had to make some minor tweaks to sky cover and the low temp
forecast for this morning. One is a direct result of the other,
as we have had some persistent cloud cover across the north this
morning and temperatures were averaging about 5 to 7 degrees
warmer than previously forecast for this morning. Other than
that, it still looks to be a mostly quiet weather day before our
next system moves in early tomorrow morning.

As of 350 AM Monday...

Warm southwesterly flow across the region today out ahead of an
approaching cold front. Highs will be close to normal values
today, which will be welcomed after the chilly weekend we saw.
However, we won`t get to experience a reprieve in the cold
temperatures for long. All guidance is in good agreement that a
strong cold front should reach the Ohio River before 09Z
Tuesday. For the most part, any weather with this front should
hold off until the very late in the near term period between 06Z
and 12Z Tuesday. Cold air moves in quickly aloft as axis of
upper trough sinks overhead. Will likely start seeing scattered
snow showers popping up across the entire area before 12Z out
ahead of the front. Accumulations will be quite light though
for this time period and will generally be confined to the
higher elevations and favorable upslope areas of the NE
Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

Models continue to indicate a clipper-type system will move away
from the region on Tuesday with gusty northwest winds bringing
in another round of cold air.

Everything points to a decent mountain snow event Tuesday and
Tuesday night as moisture and lift in the dendritic growth zone
combine. Models also indicate winds could be quite strong with
wind gusts across the lowland counties in the 20 to 25 mph range
and in excess of 30 mph across the mountain counties. Would not
be too surprised to see some gusts near 40 mph across the
highest elevations.

Combination of colder air and these gusty winds will make it
feel even colder with wind chill values below zero in the
mountains and in the single digits Tuesday night.

Went with model blend for max temps Tuesday and Wednesday as
well as lows Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

Another system swings through during this period. However.
models are somewhat different with the timing and the track of
the feature. Because of this uncertainty, have gone with the
model blend for the forecast.

Cold air remains in place for Thursday and Friday with warmer
weather anticipated for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 945 AM...

Current forecast on track. No changes were needed.

As of 610 AM Monday...

Still some VFR ceilings persisting across Northern sites this
morning, but those should break up in the next few hours. There
after, we are looking little to no restrictions until early
Tuesday. A cold front approaches the Ohio Valley during the
early morning hours on Tuesday and will spread scattered snow
showers into the entire region, although timing of their arrival
may be after 12Z tomorrow.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Arrival of snow showers and lower ceilings
early tomorrow morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Tuesday is forecast to have scattered snow showers across the
entire area and IFR conditions will be possible at times,
especially in the mountains through Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MPK
NEAR TERM...JB/MPK
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JB/MPK



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