Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281520
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WASHES OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. TUESDAY WILL BE
HOTTER WITH THUNDERSTORMS FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. HEAT
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE LAST SHOWER EXITING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING...EXPECT
DIMINISHING RAINFALL ACTIVITY TONIGHT KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY
FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. MINOR CHANGES MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT
INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE
ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE IFR/LIFR FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z AT HTS...AND PKB.
OTHER SITES EXPERIENCING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS BUT WILL LIFT QUICKLY
BY 13-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THE AREA REMAINS VERY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER CALM OR LIGHT FLOW. WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES...EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OR SHORT LIVED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

CALM FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY
VARY. THERE MAY BE IFR MORNING STRATUS AND/OR MVFR CU WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ


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