Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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926
FXUS61 KRLX 191827
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
127 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls
through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

5h ridge strengthens across the eastern seaboard over the next
24 hours, leading to general height rises and gradual drying of
the atmospheric column. At the surface, a good fetch of south
to southwesterly flow continues with warm air advection. This
leads to well above normal temperatures from this afternoon into
Tuesday. For temps, used a blend of models hedging toward the
slightly cooler MET MOS guidance, although not entirely. Tuesday
should provide an early preview of late spring, early summer in
the heart of February.

Along the Ohio River...
Flood warnings continue along the Ohio River in our HSA below
Parkersburg. Parkersburg should be coming out of flood shortly.
As of 1 PM, the crest is just passing Huntington, and will pass
Ashland later this afternoon or evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Bulk of precipitation to start the period to our north, as
upper heights build across the eastern U.S. Good southerly flow
and building heights across the region will result in
temperatures well above normal on Tuesday, with some lowland
locations topping out in the lower 80s. Upper ridge breaks down
by Wednesday, as a cold front approaches the area. Showers and
thunderstorms look likely on Wednesday, with additional rain
expected on Thursday, as frontal boundary stalls out across the
region, and a wave moves along the front, enhancing
precipitation. Heaviest rain during this period looks to be
across southeast Ohio, with a good inch or so of rain expected.
This could lead to rises on area creeks and streams once again,
particularly across southeast Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM Monday...

A series of low pressure systems, with heavy rainfall potential
are expected Friday through the weekend. Models are still
continuing to hit the heaviest precipitation axis across the
Ohio River region, and this could lead to additional flooding
issues both on area creeks and streams, and main stem rivers,
including the Ohio. Have elected to highlight flooding
potential into the HWO for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1222 PM Monday...

Warm front has lifted north of the area leaving us in south to
southwest flow and mostly VFR. Will continue to see some drying
in the wake of front, with VFR expected for the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be out of the S to SW with fair
amount of gradient flow with downsloping off the eastern
mountains. This should, for the most part, negate any chances
for morning fog Tuesday morning, despite the wet soils and
moist boundary layer.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR possible in stray shower or
two.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC



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