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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
800 PM UPDATE...
FINE TUNED POPS WITH THE FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUD SOMEWHAT EARLY
ON...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.

AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.

STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS.  MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.


WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE PORTION OF A LONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...SO THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT HAS BECOME TO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONDENSE INTO FOG
THAT WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY MVFR STRATUS TO FORM AS WELL AND IT MAY LOWER TO IFR
STRATUS BEFORE THE FOG BECOMES DENSE.

ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED MORNING
AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU.  A VFR AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LIGHT N TO NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT N TO NE ON WED.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT A TAF SITE TONIGHT.  STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE
MORE THAN FCST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD
ALSO VARY FROM FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ008>011-
     016>020-028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TRM