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000
FXUS61 KRLX 161839
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Convection continues along a warm front pushing northward
across the area into tonight. More storms possible Wednesday
evening, some storms could be severe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 212 PM Tuesday...

Satellite and radar trends at the time of writing show
aggravated cumulus field quickly evolving into pulse showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Early morning capping inversion
has been quickly overtaken by diurnal heating, with several
areas in the central lowlands already in the low to mid 80s. A
warm front draped through the forecast area will lift slightly
to the north over the next several hours, driving storms from
the southern coalfields upon initial materialization towards the
north and east.

Mesoanalysis depicts an unstable atmosphere underway, with DCAPE
of ~1200 J/kg centered over the Kanawha Valley. This will
advertise a decent potential for downbursts within this
environment. Freezing levels around 10,000ft will support hail
within any healthy and strong storm. Forecast soundings depict
west/northwest flow above 15,000ft AGL, which will likely shear
apart storms that attempt further vertical growth. Heavy
downpours are also not out of the question within activity
today. With that all in mind, will continue to highlight
isolated damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized high
water issues as main concerns within today`s convection.

Activity wanes after sunset this evening, but will return in
earnest on Wednesday as a surface low pressure system inches in
from the west. This will drag in a cold front, slated for the
short term forecast to pass overhead, but will maintain a moist
and unstable environment in the meantime. SPC paints a Marginal
risk for severe storms once again Wednesday afternoon, with a
Slight risk lurking across the Middle and Upper Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will once again rise into the 70s/80s across the
Central Appalachians.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

The region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, even with an
approaching cold front, high temperatures will be in the upper
70s and lower 80s; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Milder
conditions are expected Thursday afternoon, outside of a few
remnant showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Some evening showers will occur due to cold front
moving through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...

A cold front moves through Friday keeping showers around, as
well as the chance for some thunderstorms. Temperatures look to
be below normal for the weekend. Slight chances remain in the
mountains for some weekend showers. Frost/freeze headlines
could be possible Sunday night/Monday morning with some mid to
upper 30s across parts of northern WV and southeast OH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 212 PM Tuesday...

Aggravated cumulus field has sprouted along the southern extent
of a warm front this afternoon, with pulse convection getting
underway. As the front lifts to the north and east over the next
few hours, convection will follow a similar path. Opted for VCTS
across all terminals this afternoon, with tempo groups included
for brief vsby reductions and uptick in wind. If storms reach
strong to severe levels this afternoon, hail and isolated wind
damage will be possible.

Activity wanes after sunset this evening, but will return in
earnest on Wednesday as a disturbance advances from the west.
Showers and storms become possible once again Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A tightening pressure gradient will also
promote non-convective surface wind gusts to increase to around
15-20 kts.

Outside of storms within this TAF period, ceilings are
anticipated to remain VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK