Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050648 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 148 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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100 AM UPDATE... 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH RIVER AS OF 06Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4 TO 6 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS HEADLINE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT TO A HEAVY SNOW EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CONTINUING THE SNOW INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. CHANGES MADE WERE TO DELAY THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO WINTRY PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS STILL OUT IN FAR WESTERN OHIO. WHILE KEEPING WINTER HEADLINES AND CRITERIA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...PER MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THINGS WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN AS ARCTIC AIR REAPPEARS. TEMPERATURES FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS ...NOT RECOVERING MUCH ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE BIG SYSTEM IS EXODUS COME THE START OF THIS PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...WANE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT THU NT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE S/W TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS E OF THE AREA. THE HIGH THEN RULES THE ROOST INTO FRI NT...BEFORE DRIFTING S AND GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEATHER MAP CHANGES LITTLE FOR THIS AREA SAT AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES MORE E THAN S. STILL BANKING ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAST ENOUGH FOR LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ATOP FRESH SNOW COVER THU NT. THESE LOWS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY FCST. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N. A POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH. LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD VALLEY SEPARATION. OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON LOWS MON AND TUE NTS. BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS. OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z. SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/05/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H L L L M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H L L M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H L L L M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ009>011. OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066- 067-075-076-083>087. KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103. VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003- 004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...30/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...30

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