Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231700 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 100 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warmer weather returns as southerly winds pump air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will climb well above normal this weekend. the next shot at showers arrives Sunday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Thursday... Benign weather continues along with a warming trend. Any QPF associated with the warm front will be well north of the area toward Lake Erie - PA/NY line. Humidity will increase given forecast soundings and southerly flow. This will offset any fire danger which has been present the past two days. There will be a little stronger puff, however with RHs climbing into the 50s fire threat will drop back to a low category Friday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 100 PM Thursday... A deepening mid level cyclone in the midwest will continue to churn and move slowly north northeast through the short term. This will keep the region in the warm sector and largely precip free. With southerly flow in the low levels of the atmosphere, H8 temps climb into the double digits. This will equate to the warmest weekend since the last week of Feb as the mercury makes a run near 80F in the coal fields, but mostly 70s outside the higher terrain. The occluded front is knocking on the door of the tri state region around Huntington by 12z Sunday. Continue to ramp up probability of precip chances by then, however given the strength of this system would expect a later onset as we get closer due to operational model bias.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Thursday... Highlights: - Above normal temperatures and precipitation - Dry spells won`t be that long - No big storms Active southern stream will yield a parade of weather systems moving across the region. With all of the low pressures passing well to our northwest and the Gulf wide open, no signs of winter weather on the horizon. Monday and Tuesday yield the warmest weather of the week as temperatures climb 15 to 20 degrees above normal. I would not be surprised to see a few places in the southern coal fields get to 80F. Nonetheless, most of the tri state will be basking well into the 70s. The higher elevations will be in the 60s, still above normal for late March. The weather gets iffy mid week with the placement of a baroclinic zone somewhere in central WV / I-64 corridor. This will bring temps back to reality due to clouds and scattered showers. A transitory mid level anticyclone crosses Thursday and Friday which will a return of dry weather.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Thursday... VFR conditions expected through tonight, despite mid and high clouds increasing with a warm front. Light and variable surface winds will gradually shift to southerly tonight and increase. An increasing low- level jet will skirt the northern ports, especially near daybreak. Think any issues with LLWS will stay just north of KPKB/KCKB/KEKN, so no TAF mention at this time. AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Restrictions and low level wind shear are likely with the advance of late Monday cold front.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...TAX

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