Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270756 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 356 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak east to west frontal boundary will dissolve over the area overnight and Wednesday. Several disturbances with heavy rainfall potential Thursday into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sent a quick update to remove all PoPs through at least 12z. Also adjusted hourly temperatures to match recent obs and model tendencies. Patchy dense fog expected to develop overnight at most sites. Low visibilities and ceilings are possible over areas that received rainfall and along river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Several waves, surface and aloft, will impact the forecast area through the end of the week. The first will already be arriving Thursday morning riding along a warm front. Models seem to be coming into better agreement with this now, but with some differences still in place capped POPs around 80 percent. That wave should move through Thursday and head on its way Thursday night and pull a cold front south. A weak upper level shortwave trough follows for Friday and have likely POPs with this. Weak height rises behind this wave for Friday night with just low chance POPs lingering. Next surface wave approaching for Saturday. Models having a bit harder time resolving this one, but both GFS and ECMWF show QPF max across the mountains, so included some likely POPs again for Saturday afternoon across eastern third of CWA. Only minimal changes made to temperatures. With lots of clouds, expecting warm nights with average to just below average daytime highs.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across the region. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Tricky forecast overnight. With antecedent PCPN, near calm flow and areas of clearing you can expect IFR/LIFR in dense fog right? Well, some mid to upper clouds are evident on satellite images moving east to affect PKB, CKB, and perhaps EKN later on. The rest of sites could fog to LIFR ceilings. Visibilities could fluctuate between IFR and MVFR at times. Coded IFR/LIFR conditions at most sites except BKW which keep IFR conditions. Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Flow aloft will continue light west. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of Fog formation and intensity may vary overnight. A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site Wednesday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ

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