Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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379 FXUS61 KRLX 030536 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1236 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure this weekend. Weak upper trough late Sunday into Sunday night. Warm front Monday night Tuesday. Milder mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 730 PM Friday... 911 centers across the northern mountainous counties are reporting slick roads due to freezing drizzle and light snow. With such a thin layer of moisture, not likely expecting much crystal growth overnight so chance of freezing drizzle will linger. Opted to go with a winter weather advisory as untreated surfaces will continue to ice up overnight. As of 130 PM Friday... Low stratus behaving as expected thus far today with Nam Nest model having an excellent handle on this. There is an area of weak CAA embedded within a belt of vorticity advection pivoting thru OH, helping to produce an area of sprinkles and drizzle. Expect this to pivot thru the northern half of WV late this afternoon with a chance of a sprinkle or drizzle. This should translate to snow showers across the northern mountains, though there is a concern that ice crystals will be hard to come by given a meager moisture depth. Still, the northern mountains seem to find a way to flake despite cloud top temps/lift extending only to -6C. Allowed for a few tenths of accumulation overnight. The bigger conundrum centers around what to do with the stratus. Most of the models show enough drying beneath the inversion to allow for more of broken deck late tonight and lingering on Saturday. The Nam Nest has had the hot hand so will lean on it for sky coverage through tomorrow. Even if there is some partial clearing over SE OH and parts of WV into early Saturday. Low confidence on eradicating the stratus completely late tonight into Saturday. Even if some partial clearing takes place...this should be short lived as cirrus advects in from the SW in Saturday afternoon. Temps tonight will be entirely dependent on cloud cover. Have gone a bit above guidance given the aforementioned thinking. This is also reflected for highs tomorrow with cooler temps north and warmer toward KY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 PM Friday... Warm front will push into the southwest Virginia zones Sunday from the southwest in conjunction with a weak open upper level trough into the southern Great Lakes. These system will be mutually exclusive, and do not expect any significant interaction between the two. However, the net result will be nearly equal timing with precipitation entering the CWA. May get light snow at first over the SW Virginia highlands, but this will primarily be a light rain event until the northeast mountains become cold enough for light snow heading into Sunday night. Snow amounts for now are less than an inch in those mountainous areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... Next system is a 500mb trough in the southern stream that will work its way into the Appalachians from the lower Mississippi Valley. Over the last couple of runs, the warm sector into our area from the mid latitude wave cyclone looks less pronounced, and will keep the mid week highs in the 50s across the lowlands. While rain might be a bit heavier than the previous system from the short term forecast period, it will be progressive should clear the CWA fairly efficiently. At this point, the synoptic scale pattern should amplify significantly with the developing upper level low over the mid section of the country. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Saturday... Widespread MVFR cigs across the area, particularly across the higher terrain, where Isold IFR exists in spots in -shsn/-fzdz. Some lifting of the cloud deck to VFR expected generally after 18Z, however, mountainous locations may remain MVFR for the period. Otherwise, light surface winds lowlands, with occasional gusts in the teens across the higher terrain through much of the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 12/03/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M H M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H L H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M M H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain and snow, particularly in the mountains Sunday night into Monday. Additional IFR possible in rain and snow towards mid week.
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for WVZ521>523-525-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.