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229
FXUS61 KRLX 151120
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
720 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rounds of showers give way to more widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms today as a slow moving system crosses the area.
Mainly dry Thursday, then unsettled and wet to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 720 AM Wednesday...

Significantly increased PoPs across the northern mountain lakes
to reflect current radar.

As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Updated the PoPs with latest HiRes CAMs, otherwise everything
remains on track. Occluding low is currently located over the
IN/KY/OH area of the Ohio River Valley and will continue to move
this way through the morning. A surface trough extending over
SE Ohio has spawned some moderate to heavy showers with sporadic
embedded thunder/lightning.

As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Rounds of showers will continue this morning as a slow moving
low pressure system and a warm front sit to our southwest,
pushing multiple shortwave disturbances through the area today.
Showers will be light to moderate overnight with most of the
convective activity staying to our south until after daybreak.

Very stagnant air flow is occurring with surface high pressure
sitting to our east and subsidence from departing shortwave
perturbations. As a result, low stratus and some fog will
develop this morning affecting the mountains, coalfields, and
the Tri-State Area with low visibilities at times.

Confidence is low in widespread convective/thunderstorm activity
associated with this system. HiRes CAMs are also leaning to the
pessimistic side, keeping the greatest potential across the
southern coalfields, greater SE Ohio and the Tri-State Area of
WV/KY/OH. These areas will be closest to the low which will be
the source of greatest lift. Thinking that more intense showers
will contain embedded lightning and thunder mid-morning into
late afternoon. SPC does have the area outlooked for general
thunderstorms to cover the possibility.

As the low pressure center crosses the area later today,
showers will become more widespread in coverage. The air column
will fairly saturated as this system passes with some decent
amounts manifesting from some heavier showers. WPC as a result
has our area outlooked for a marginal risk as the combination of
slow moving cells and favorable terrain could lead to some
localized flooding today into tonight. Long-term FFG suggests
that we will be able to handle most if not all of what we
receive today and tonight, especially with the full greenup
across the forecast area. Short-term 1hr/3hr FFG is lower
between 1" to 1.5", but this is manageable unless more intense
cells train over the same areas throughout the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Wednesday...

Most convective shower activity should have come to an end by
Thursday morning. We could see a some diurnally driven terrain-
based showers and t-storms in the afternoon and evening hours.
That will quickly shut off after dark, and Thursday night looks
dry across the CWA. Given the recent rains, we`ll have to
monitor sky cover and winds for fog potential overnight, at
least in the valleys.

With the potential for some patchy sunshine, we have highs
forecast in the mid-70s to near 80 degrees in lower elevations,
and 60s to lower 70s in the mountains. Thursday night lows, like
the fog, will depend a lot on the cloud cover and winds. For
now, we`re forecasting lows in the 50s to near 60 degrees across
the area, but some valleys could drop lower if they decouple.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Another slow-moving system looks to move east from the Plains
towards the Ohio Valley and Midwest to end the week. The speed
at which showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms make it into
the CWA remains a bit uncertain based on the latest guidance,
but we can expect isolated to scattered activity to move fully
into the area by around sunset on Friday. The vertically stacked
surface and upper-level lows will slowly move across the region
between later Friday night and Saturday night, with widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms expected. We`ll have to keep
an eye out for potential hydro issues Friday and Saturday,
especially for any areas that receive higher rain totals from
the current event.

Models are a bit split on whether the base of the trough will
pass to the east Saturday night or Sunday, but the balance of
guidance would point towards it being by daybreak on Sunday,
with a general decrease in shower and storm chances that day.
However, some showers and storms may linger in the NW`ly flow,
specially in the mountains courtesy of some orographic lift.
There seems to be reasonably good agreement on Monday likely
being dry under ridging, but solutions diverge on whether the
next rain chances move in on Tuesday or hold off until mid-week.

High temps in the extended period are forecast to waver between
near normal and several degrees above normal. Given the frequent
cloud cover, increased dew points, and frequent rain chances,
lows will tend to run milder than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 AM Wednesday...

Most sites are reporting VFR or MVFR with lower CIGs and
scattered showers moving across the area. Have been seeing a few
embedded thunderstorms across SE Ohio this morning as a
shortwave moves through.

VIS restrictions will bounce today at most sites with continued
showers. CIGs will drop to mostly MVFR, IFR in the mountains,
later this morning due to a more scattered band of showers that
will move through. Models show a brief reprieve to VFR across
the lowlands later this afternoon, but will drop to MVFR/IFR
again overnight with a stationary boundary.

Rounds of scattered showers will continue to move through this
morning due to a slow moving low pressure system and warm front
to our southwest. Allowed TEMPO groups at multiple sites to
cover rounds of scattered showers that convective allowing
short-range models have been forecasting. There remains a
chance for thunderstorms mid-morning into early afternoon, but
confidence is low in widespread thunderstorm activity, so
allowed VCTS at BKW, CRW and HTS as these sites will be closest
to greatest forcing. Other sites will likely see convective
activity later in the afternoon/early evening if conditions
become more organized.

Winds light and variable this morning, especially across the
lowlands where directions will vary between north and
southeasterly. The mountains will remain light and mostly
southeasterly with breezy gusts at times. Expecting much more
variability in winds this afternoon as a low pressure center
tracks across the area and eventually stalls overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS and CIG will vary today, could be
higher than advertised. Thunderstorms could be more scattered
than forecasted.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in low
stratus Thursday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC