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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. REMNANTS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ADDS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEW FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 AM UPDATE...DRIED OUT POPS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST PER RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REFORMING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY I-64 ON SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WITH
VORT MAX IN THE WEAK 500 MB FLOW TO OUR SW.

WITH MORE CLOUDS...DOWNPLAYED THE FOG IN THE SOUTH...BUT KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG WHERE IT RAINED SATURDAY EVENING.  ALSO SOME FOG ON HIGHER
RIDGES LIKE CHEAT MOUNTAIN DUE TO EAST FLOW AND LOWERING CLOUDS.

TRIED TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND POP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY.  ALSO LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES THERE.  LOWERED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER ON THE EASTERN SLOPES...THINKING MORE INSTABILITY WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT SO
FAR SO GOOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AND A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TAKING OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE GENERALLY DRY. STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AIDED VIA INCREASED SUNSHINE...GIVES RISE TO JUST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM IN A FEW PLACES. WILL KEEP POPS
LOW AND MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS WITH THE SUNSHINE...AND MAY ACTUALLY BE
JUST A BIT ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...WHILE
NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC/ECMWF TRENDING TO GO WITH A STRONGER/FASTER UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...AND UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY WHEN THE ACTUALLY FRONT CROSSES.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA RIDGES IN...WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS FILTERING IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z...CREATING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING AT KBKW. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z...WHEN SOME LIFTING OF CIGS MAY OCCUR.

WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE 2 TO 3 THSD FT BY 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY...THUS...COULD BE
SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...PARTICULARLY 10-15Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN...PARTICULARLY AFTER
16Z...AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY AROUND 00-02Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND HEIGHT OF CEILINGS 09Z TO 15Z
SUNDAY COULD VARY. DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF FOG COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/19/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IF PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR FOG
POSSIBLE FOR DAWN MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL