Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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854 FXUS61 KRLX 280735 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH STORMS. TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV. MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY REGION TOWARDS HTS...AND A LEADING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO THE COAL FIELDS TOWARDS CRW. CRW...THINKING IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING THE VISIBILITIES FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH A MODEST 5 TO 10 KT WIND...LIKELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY USING VCTS GIVEN THE OVERALL DECAYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BUT THE BETTER FORCING PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/28/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M L L M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26

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