Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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706 FXUS61 KRLX 281319 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 919 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Stationary frontal boundary, diurnal heating, high moisture and a mid level short pose a threat for flash flooding through tonight. Several disturbances and copious moisture will bring heavy rainfall potential into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 am update. Adjusted POPs according to current rain complex on radar. Watching for thunderstorm development ahead of the system as heating of the day takes over this afternoon. Previous discussion... It will continue to be warm and muggy overnight with the high dewpoints and increasing clouds. An old stationary front remains stuck nearby weakening as we speak. The GFS h500 charts show a short wave will ride the westerlies affecting our area through tonight. Clusters of showers and storms will produce heavy rain capable to produce flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch continues in effect until 12Z Friday. The weather looks like all the previous days with a stationary boundary, high sfc based CAPE and precipitable water around 2 inches. The NAM is showing an area of deep layered shear of 50 knots at Randolph county, spreading southwest. An isolated severe storms can not be ruled out with storms with equilibrium levels of 42 Kft. Any early morning fog should dissipate by 13Z lifting in low stratus by 14-15Z. Used National Blend of Models guidance for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... One surface wave will be departing to our east to start the period...likely leaving a boundary somewhere in the vicinity. However, not much else to kick things off -- slightly rising 500mb heights and the next surface wave still to our west. So, have generally decreasing POPs Friday into Friday night but never went with a dry forecast due to the boundary and plenty of low level moisture around. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as another surface wave slides by. This feature is rather messy in the models, but still kept likely POPs across much of the northern and central CWA for now. May be able to fine tune as details resolve. Will have to continue watch for water issues, as precipitable water oscillates from 1.5 to around 2 inches with each wave. Will mentioning HWO, but not enough confidence to commit to any specific areas to extend the flash flood watch. A lot of it will depend on which areas receive the most rain today into tonight. Expect abundant clouds through the period, so instability will be somewhat limited and not seeing any organized severe threat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weather looks to remain unsettled for most of the extended period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across the region. Another front late week. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail outside showers or storms through this evening. Radar and lightning data indicate clusters of showers and storms moving north northeast across the southeast OH and along the eastern mountains. IFR conditions in dense fog at BKW should lift into low stratus by 13-14Z. A mid level short wave will interact with stationary front and abundant moisture to produce showers and storms through tonight. Expect IFR conditions along the strongest storms. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog potential tonight depends greatly on cloud coverage. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L H M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H M M M M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms through Friday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>009- 013>020-024>032-036>040-046-047. OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ083-085>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ/JMV

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