Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211734 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 134 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1015 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT THE DYING MCS ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH...AND THE NEXT AREA CURRENTLY OVER IN CROSSING THE OH BORDER. THE LATEST AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 16Z...AND SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT WV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY...AND WV THROUGH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH WAVE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL WAVES OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH PLENTY OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD. PW VALUES FRIDAY...PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...AND WPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF TIME LEFT TO ISSUE ANY WATER HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE ISSUE IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER REGIME AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE STOUT RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER MS VALLEY. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA BUT WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL STAY MOSTLY AROUND 2200 FEET...BUT LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF CRW. ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WV WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF STORMS COULD AFFECT BKW BY 19-20Z. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN ACTIVITY TODAY. THE SECOND ROUND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AFTER RAIN SHOWERS PASS BY. BELIEVE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY. CODED STORMS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO HEALTHY SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN H5 MODEL CHARTS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW...WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF POST RAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUD MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THAN CODED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H M M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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