Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 242347 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LAST OF THE DRY AIR TONIGHT. IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO POPS. DID LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE UPPER GREENBRIER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. OTHERWISE...A S/SE BREEZE IS LIKELY ON HILLTOPS AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING BKW THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO INCREASED WIND A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON MEMORIAL DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH. HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING KBKW. FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. .AFTER 06Z MONDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...KTB/JMV

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