Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281805 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS. THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS. THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NE KY/SE OH/S WV. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH TO ADD/CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MUGGY FOLLOWED BY LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA WED NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF THU. WILL THROW A MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON WED AS HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE 100F DEGREE RANGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH AVG TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...MAINLY FOR HIGHS. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE S FRINGE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW END VFR CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE N LOWLANDS. HAVE SOME VCTS MENTION FOR KEKN/KBKW. EXPECT ANOTHER LIFR TO VLIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN THIS MOIST LIGHT FLOW ENVIRONMENT. MORNING FOG WILL LIFT INTO PERHAPS AN HR OR TWO OF MVFR BKN STRATUS BEFORE CU FIELD TAKES OVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WED MORNING FOG MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...30/DTC AVIATION...30

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