Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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294 FXUS61 KRLX 231041 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 641 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy rain through tonight. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Friday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm. As of 345 AM Friday... Deep southwest flow will bring moisture associated with tropical depression Cindy to the area through tonight. Models show high the upper 60s...and pwats reaching 2 inches suggest showers and storms could produce heavy rain. Available moisture, diurnal heating, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots and sfc CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg mainly along the OH River suggest some storms could produce damaging winds and periods of heavy rain. The freezing level is about 15 kft. Therefore the threat for large hail is low. SPC have portions of southeast OH and WV and northeast KY in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A flash flood watch is in effect for the entire CWA until 6 AM Saturday. Tonight, the remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be passing over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front will push east reinforcing instability and moisture. Very heavy rain is more likely tonight. Total QPF of near one inch is forecast across southeast OH, and decrease towards the east. Tonight, the rainfall axis shifts to the east diagonally across central WV with a QPF maxima of 2 inches across northeast KY, and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere. Overall, in the next 24 hours can expect a widespread 1.5 to 3 inches with locally heavy amounts through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... Saturday brings light west to northwest flow in the wake of the exiting cold front, and remnants of once tropical storm Cindy. Showers lingering in the mountains, with the help of the upslope flow, first thing Saturday morning, will diminish during the morning hours, an end altogether by late afternoon. Low level moisture will be steadily eradicated from west to east. The exodus of the rain first thing Saturday morning will allow any flood waters to recede on Saturday, with the exception of some larger streams, and mainstem rivers. The remainder of the period will feature a long wave upper level trough in the eastern United States, with a long wave ridge over the Rocky mountains. This will bring cooler and less humid weather, giving the area the opportunity to further dry out. A series of upper level troughs will rotate through the long wave trough during this period. The first will cross the Great Lakes early Sunday, leaving the forecast area on the anticyclonic shear side of the upper level jet, resulting in a dry day. The second will cross Sunday night and then the third Monday night. That third one will bring a mainly diurnally driven chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening across the northern half of the forecast area. This precipitation will largely be scattered and light. Temperatures close to central guidance, a little below MOS for highs on Saturday, otherwise close, and generally falling below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM Friday... The long wave upper level trough, still over the eastern United States on Tuesday, lifts out Wednesday, while the upper level ridge over the Rocky mountains flattens. The exodus of the trough is marked by one last embedded short wave trough moving through first thing Tuesday morning. The chance for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon will depend upon the speed of the exodus of this trough, with a quick demise at sunset if not earlier. This will lead to a clear, calm and cool radiative night Tuesday night, as a large surface high pressure system crosses. Wednesday will be a nice day as the high moves off to the east, giving way to a light return southerly flow. After a dry but not as cool Wednesday night, forecast uncertainty increases Thursday and Friday, in the zonal upper level flow. Models bring a weak upper level short wave trough north of the area Thursday, but disagree on weather it can summon enough moisture in the low level southerly return flow, to generate precipitation. Another upper level trough approaches from the west on Friday, bringing in a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Central guidance temperatures accepted, except to cool the valleys a bit beneath high pressure Wednesday morning. A warming trend ensues on highs and lows Wednesday through Thursday night. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Friday... Radar images show most of the convection has moved east and northeast aways from the area. MVFR ceiling deck remains affecting PKB, CKB, and EKN this morning. Conditions will improve shortly after sunrise across most sites. However, moisture from Tropical Depression Cindy, diurnal heating and deep layered shear will produce showers and thunderstorms mainly across portions of northeast KY, Southeast OH and northern WV this afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate as a cold front approaches from the west and a low pressure system rides along the front to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions will be likely along the heavier showers or storms. Models are in agreement in bringing a wave of showers and thunderstorms around 18-20Z this afternoon, particuarly across southeast Ohio, shifting eastward across the area towards 00Z Saturday and beyond. Expect heavy downpours, IFR/LIFR conditions, and the possibility of strong damaging winds. Most of the area is under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Expect amendment will be required especially damaging winds and visibility. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of any MVFR conditions overnight may vary from forecast. Timing and development of tsra on Friday may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H M M H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.