Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 240719 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 319 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure meanders slowly through the carolinas through Tuesday, and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic seaboard through Wednesday night. Next front Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Monday... Forecast on track. Flood warnings in the watch area being extended through Monday morning, with the watch set to expire early Monday afternoon, as the system only slowly exits. As of 740 PM Sunday... Updated POPs based on current trends and hi-res guidance. Did not make any real significant changes, but mainly just tightened up gradients a bit. Opted to extend flash flood watch until 18Z Monday with the next wave of precip drifting up from the south and lingering into Monday. Really, we are in more of a flood than flash flood scenario now with lots of minor issues already ongoing. However, think canceling the flash flood watch just to issue a flood watch is counterproductive and likely confusing. As of 200 PM Sunday... While there are typical model differences in the exact handling of the broad upper low currently over the western Tennessee valley this period, all are indicating SIMILAR main effects for our area. The associated rain shield just over our southern most zones early this afternoon will struggle to shift northward this afternoon and evening. As the upper low slides south southeast into the southeastern states tonight, the rain shield will tend to shift slowly eastward and spread up the WV mountains. This process will continue Monday as the upper low then reaches the Southeast coast. By Monday afternoon, most of the rain will have shifted into the mountains. Thus, will keep the northwest half basically dry and the southeast quite wet, with a tight POP gradient in between. In addition, the good influx of moisture and steady but persistent rain over the southern mountains will validate continuing the Flood Watch as is, with flood warnings already in effect for SW VA. The watch may very well have to be extended and expanded up the mountains later tonight and Monday, but there is enough uncertainty in the exact track of the upper low and the axis of heavy rain for further evaluation. Otherwise, look for coolest temps tonight and warmest temps Monday over northwest portions of the area given less thick clouds and lack of rain. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 AM Monday... Overall drier weather expected in the short term period. Low pressure will continue to move east and north along the Atlantic Coast, with light rain shower activity continuing along far eastern zones. No additional flooding concerns are expected. A brief warming and drying trend is expected on Wednesday, as high pressure and upper ridging builds into the region, along with increasing southerly flow out ahead of an approaching cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 AM Monday... Cold front will spread showers and thunderstorms back into the region by Thursday. At this point, no widespread severe is expected due to timing, and overall lack of significant dynamics. There will however be the possibility of brief heavy downpours, as PW values rise to over 1.1 inches once again. Focus then shifts to a strengthening low pressure system across the Gulf region, that will lift a warm frontal boundary across the area this weekend, with showers and thunderstorms returning. Heavy downpours will be possible again, as strong southerly flow aids in high moisture transport to the region. Cold frontal boundary with the system is progged to arrive on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 AM Monday... The area will be on the northwest fringes of a low pressure system moving slowly through the carolinas this period. All sites were VFR at the start of the forecast, and PKB and CKB will remain VFR. However, as the rain shield pushes northward overnight and Monday, sites farther south and east, HTS, CRW, EKN and BKW, will have MVFR conditions at times in ceilings and, to a lesser extent, visibilities. Conditions will improve to VFR late Monday or Monday night, except at BKW, which carries the highest uncertainty, as it will be on the edge of MVFR to IFR ceilings down the southeast side of the ridge the entire time. Surface flow will be light east to northeast, except east to southeast in the mountains, and around 10 kts with some gusts to around 20 kts at BKW. Light east to southeast flow aloft overnight will become light to moderate southeast on Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain and category changes may vary. BKW will be near the edge of MVFR to IFR ceilings much of the time, even as sites northwest of there have MVFR ceilings at times. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L M L L M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR may linger across the southeast slopes of the mountains into Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ033-034. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ003-004.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.