Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271824 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 224 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SEEING A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE FORMING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ACROSS REMAINING AREA ISOLATED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL NOT CARRY POPS MUCH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BLENDED IN BIAS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SEEING SPOTTY CB POPPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIE OFF THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND OVER NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL BL WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND EXPECT DECOUPLING ACROSS THE ELEVATED MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES AND HAVE INTRODUCED MORNING BR FROM 10Z-12Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TUE MORNING FOG MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/KMC NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...KMC

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