Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252121 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 521 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front moves into the region and stalls tonight. The front dissipates over the area...leaving showers and storms possible. Another system is slated for the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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515 pm update... Made some adjustments to PoPs including trimming back in southeast Ohio overnight. The forecast is otherwise on track. Previous discussion... Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening. Plenty of instability out ahead of the front and with a very soupy airmass. Storms will continue to fire along this front and could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front is expected to stall over our southern portion of the CWA. Storms are expected to continue over that area overnight. Some fog may develop over those areas that receive rain towards daybreak. The chance of showers will linger throughout the day...especially near the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A frontal boundary will wash out over of the area...leaving plenty of moisture. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday...more numerous in the afternoon and evening hours. Models then showing a feature moving in on Thursday or Friday. Considerable timing differences between the models with this feature...so stayed fairly generic with pops. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Used a blend of the ECENS mean...NAEFS mean...AND GEFS mean. Weighted a bit more toward the ECENS mean than the others. This would leave the area in the warm sector with plenty of moisture for Friday and Saturday. A cold front would then push into the area Sunday. Still questionable if this front would push south of the area or not for early next week. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Cold front,soupy airmass and heating will continue to fire storms throughout the afternoon. This front will continue to move through the area this afternoon and into the evening stalling over the southern portion of area tonight and lingering through Tuesday. VFR conditions will quickly and briefly go to MVFR/IFR cigs and brief gusty winds in Thunderstorms. Currently a line of thunderstorms from PKB-HTS-JKL will continue to move ESE and be over those TAF sites between 18Z-20z. Then over the rest of the TAF sites the rest of the afternoon and into evening hours. Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms will persists into the overnight hours with fog forming just between 09z-12z. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may vary. Timing of Fog formation may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds. Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY NEAR TERM...JS/TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JS

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