Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200742 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 342 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60 TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW TWEAKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST. THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE. IF THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR. AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 10/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L M L M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020- 027>032-035>040. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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