Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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162 FXUS61 KRLX 160327 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1027 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front this evening. Cold front Tuesday night. Another possible system to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1020 PM Sunday... No major changes to the forecast. Light rain persists, with patchy fog, especially in the valleys. Did increase the overnight lows by a degree from Athens north in SE Ohio. As of 1245 PM Sunday... The dry air has struggled to make inroads into southeast OH and northern WV. Further south, low stratus, fog, and patchy drizzle has greeted folks. While the drizzle will taper off and the fog will lift...the low clouds will persist through the remainder of the day. There is hope that northern areas can lift the bases a bit this afternoon. Temps have moved little since last night with our far reaches into southeast OH seeing temps near the freezing mark. We will await the arrival of that pesky front late this afternoon and evening with increasing isentropic lift once again providing for a miserable night of periods of light rain, fog, and low ceilings. Across Perry/Morgan/Athens...temps may creep down to freezing tonight but chances of precip making into those counties overnight are too small to carry any freezing rain hazard. Something to monitor for though. We will see upper heights begin to build on Monday, but the old front/inverted trof should provide enough low level forcing for areas of light rain in the morning. This should taper off in the afternoon as southeast flow near the surface develops and shakes the off the inverted trof. This should also allow for the low stratus to finally lift in earnest. It will be much warmer with highs running a good 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Sunday... A band of showers in advance of an approaching cold front will move across the area late Monday night into Tuesday. The weak cold front itself should move through Tuesday night. Some cooler air is expected behind the front on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Models continue to have considerable differences in timing with systems for the end of the week and into the weekend, although agreeing on unseasonably warm weather. Therefore, forecast confidence in precipitation chances at any particular time are low. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 640 PM Sunday... Will go aggressive with the IFR ceilings in the forecast, and for the northern terminals not in that category yet, it will occur over the next few hours. Rain will be mostly on during this time as well, and could serve to improve conditions at times, whereas ceasing of the rain will bring ceilings and visibilities down even more. LAMP guidance is showing strong confidence in IFR through much of the forecast. Slow improvement expected after 14Z Monday, but only to MVFR ceilings at some locations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need TEMPOs added for bouncing observations. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 01/16/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M M M L L L M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M L L M M M L L L L M L EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H L L L L L M L L L L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR possible Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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