Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220747 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 347 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front crosses this morning, with high pressure building in for today and Thursday. Warm front Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend and early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Wednesday... Cold frontal boundary at 0715Z hard to pick out, but appears to be just south of the Ohio River. Behind the front, much lower dew points and much cooler air moving into the region. Once the front clears the area later this morning, expecting a mainly clear sky, although some clouds may be present this morning across the north due to deck that has formed off Lake Erie. Otherwise, dry and mostly sunny today, under cool high pressure. Temperatures today will be much cooler than yesterday due to CAA. With a dry air mass progged to be in place, rh values this afternoon could easily dip into the 20 percent range. In addition, will still have occasional gusty conditions today due to good mixing and tight pressure gradient as high continues to nudge east. With the dry atmosphere in place, expecting a night of good radiational cooling tonight, particularly across northern zones closer to center of the high. Lowered temperatures tonight several degrees from previous forecast, particularly across northern zones. Expecting widespread teens and 20s tonight, with another freeze warning looking likely for KY zones. Will allow the freeze warning for this morning to expire first, and have day shift issue the new headline for tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... A broad high pressure system will extend from its center over the Great Lakes region, south and east into the OH Valley and WV through Wednesday night. This position keeps the area under northerly flow and cold advection Wednesday night. Models show H850 temperatures around minus 7C Wednesday night. Together with clear skies and expected radiational cooling, temperatures will drop into the mid 20s southern coal fields ranging into the teens higher elevations northeast mountains. This will pose another hard freeze Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The high pressure moves east across the eastern sea board to bring south southwest flow over the local area by 00Z Friday. Then, a relatively moist and warm air mass will begin to move over the region allowing a warm front to spread some rain Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures on Friday could reach the mid to upper 60s lowlands, ranging into the low 50s higher elevations. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... The atmosphere will continue unsettled while in the warm sector Thursday night and Friday. Convection right ahead of a cold front will spread from west to east Saturday and Saturday night. The actual cold front crosses Sunday as the parent low pressure center moving over the OH Valley and WV. Have likely PoPs but they look slower than previous forecast. Went straight with the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. Warmer temperatures expected for the weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 125 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions, although some mvfr cigs are possible overnight mainly across southeast Ohio. Winds will gradually veer to a more northerly direction overnight, and become gusty at times, with gusts in the teens to 20 kt range. Winds will slacken after 14Z, however, occasional gusts in the teens will remain until around 23Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More mvfr conditions may occur across northern sites than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L M H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101-102. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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