Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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279 FXUS61 KRLX 240629 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 229 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of showers today through Thursday. Unsettled again for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 230 AM Wednesday... Sfc low pressure system over KY and TN will move north into the OH Valley through tonight. A series of mid level shortwaves rotating around the upper low will produce unstable conditions for showers or storms to develop mainly across southeast OH and over the eastern mountains. Abundant cloudiness will keep temperatures in the 70s this afternoon and into the 50s tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM Tuesday... Upper low over the Ohio Valley early this period gets kicked out by end of this period. Til then, upper disturbances swirling around this upper low will bring likely chances for showers through the day Thursday. Temperatures will be cooling by Thursday as we get on the back side of the upper low itself, with temps slightly below normal for this time of year with all the clouds and showers. Instability looks very meager so no thunder included with the showers. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM Tuesday... With the upper low having been kicked out by Friday and high pressure moving in, it looks to be dry Friday with some temperature recovery under more sunshine. The flow aloft quickly becomes zonal by the weekend. We again return to unsettled conditions for the weekend as upper disturbances within this zonal flow act on increasing moisture from the gulf of mexico on the back side of the high pressure. Temperatures will respond to slightly above normal levels. High pressure finally builds in for awhile early next week. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Wednesday... Radar show areas of rain moving northeast across the tri state area, and another batch across the northeast mountains. Expect mostly MVFR conditions with very brief IFR/LIFR along with the rain. Bufkit soundings suggest saturation at the lower levels at PKB, CRW, HTS and BKW by 07-08Z.A low stratus deck is expected to develop overnight across most sites. Conditions could improve to VFR/MVFR in the morning by 14Z. But the environment will remain unsettled through Sunday with the passage of a low pressure system. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain could vary. May need to be more aggressive with IFR or LIFR tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Upper level low keeps IFR chances in play through Thursday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ

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