Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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540 FXUS61 KRLX 191840 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 240 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SKIES CLEAR BEHIND IT AND DEW POINTS DROP. THE CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF IT WILL FOG AND HOW MUCH IT WILL FOG. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWER CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG THE RIVER BEDS FROM 08Z TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEAR TERM. USED A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES WITH BIAS CORRECTED. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS CONSISTANT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL ONLY RESULT IN SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE PICTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. SO FOR YOUR MEMORIAL DAY, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 18Z SFC OBS...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS MORE OF THE DAY GOES BY THE LESS LIKELY IT WILL BECOME. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN POST COLD FRONT. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE IF AND HOW MUCH IT WILL FOG OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE RIVER BEDS...BUT KEEP VISIBILITIES MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. CONDITIONS COULD VERY WELL BE LOWER AND EVEN POSSIBLE LIFR. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL DIE OFF OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG AND STRATUS COULD PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MVFR CONDTIONS BKW AND VICINTY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/JS NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...FB

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