Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260601 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 201 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WEST VIRGINIA LATE TODAY. FRONT WASHES OUT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT/MONDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A FEW CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHICH MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR INHIBITING WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...STILL WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT AS PREVALENT AS SATURDAY MORNING. A DYING COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY BRINGING A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT MAINLY ACTING TO TEMPORARILY THICKEN UP THE CLOUDS AS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF IS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BEST CHANCE OF POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. ALOFT...HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING INTO MID WEEK AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING US A GOOD WARMUP...SO WENT WARMER THAN WPC GUIDANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD... MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WITH THE EURO JUST A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR BOTH TEMPS AND PRECIP. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING A TEMPORARY LULL IN SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHICH MODELS GENERALLY BRING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW THIS FEATURE...BUT DIFFER AS TO WHERE THE LOW MAY EVENTUALLY TRACK. CONSIDERING THIS UNCERTAINTY...BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR/VLIFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN...GENERALLY 07-14Z...WITH LESS FOG EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...WHERE MID AND HIGH DECK WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER 14Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND VA. BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF STORMS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING OF AND DENSITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/26/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M L M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/JW/DTC NEAR TERM...SL/JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...JW

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