Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 241842 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 142 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MESOSCALE UPDATE... CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY SLIDING THRU NE OH. SURFACE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THRU E OH AND N KY AS OF 18Z. STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW...BEGINNING NOW /18Z/...FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW LEVELS. NUMEROUS ASOS AND AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REPORTED 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE PAST HR. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 21Z AND PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR TRENDS. ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. REGION NEVER GETS INTO MUCH OF WIND SHIFT ALOFT AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF OH VALLEY. SO A GLANCING BLOW OF GOOD CAA. AS SUCH...THINK ANY POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A GOOD BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A BL PUFF TO KEEP LOWS UP A BIT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN 500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO FIGURE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FANFARE IN TERMS OF PRECIP. CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS AT CKB/EKN. EXPECT JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CONCERNING WINDS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONT TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THRU NE OH. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT THRU 21Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 40 TO 45 KTS OUT OF SW ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 21Z...AS THE FRONT CLEARS AND THE WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH. THERE ISNT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA...PERHAPS TURNING MORE TOWARD W THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30/JW LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...30

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.