Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250830 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 330 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Turning colder in the wake of the cold front. Warmer with upper level disturbances and rain showers next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Saturday... Cold front is knocking on the doorstep of the far western edge of the CWA. Convective activity still ongoing with slowed eastward progression across the Ohio River. Lightning counts have diminished overall, but also not really getting any warming on the IR satellite imagery. Following the HRRR for the timing which has demonstrated some pretty good accuracy this morning in that respect. For the climate summary upcoming today, max temperatures have likely already been hit at midnight, and with the rain and subsequent cold front, non diurnal temperature curve was necessary for the daytime period. Cold air advection will be occurring, and will see the leftover slight chance POPs transition to light snow for the northeast highlands heading into the tonight period. Snowfall amounts are generally on the superficial side and relegated to the ridges. Gusty winds expected in the wake of the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM Saturday... A tranquil period under Canadian high pressure brings plenty of sunshine and near normal temperatures to end the weekend. Look for highs in the 40s sunday and lows in the 30s Sunday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 305 AM Saturday... A zonal flow pattern aloft prevails through mid week. Within this zonal flow, there will be a northern stream along the Canadian border which will keep the cold air bottled up in Canada. Our weather into Thursday will be dominated by a southern stream flow of upper disturbances lifting out of the southwestern U.S. and across the Ohio valley and Mid Atlantic states. Models agree with this pattern, although there are some timing and identification differences in the individual disturbances. Thus, we take a broad brush approach with on and off rain showers Monday through Wednesday. We will be in the warm sector with a good southerly flow, bringing temps to well above normal through Wednesday. Have left thunder out for now given all the clouds and showers, limiting instability. Finally, the upper flow amplifies by Thursday and drives a cold front across the area with more rain showers. Behind the front, look for a cool down for the end of work week with temps getting back to near normal by Friday. There maybe some post frontal showers Friday, with snow showers mainly in the mountains.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 645 PM Friday... Line of convection now near the HTS-PKB corridor and should affect all of the terminals by 12Z this morning. Characteristics are heavy rain and wind gusts in excess of 40kts for the most part with half inch hail possible as well. Low level flow off the surface increases to around 50-60kts up towards the 5kft level. Cold front still lingers back towards ZZV and LHQ. Winds will gust ahead of the front even without convection, and behind the front as well with winds veering to a more west northwesterly direction heading into Saturday. As far as restrictions go, IFR visibilities likely at the onset of convection wth mainly MVFR ceilings. Beyond the frontal passage, cold air advection brings ceilings back in, deteriorating to MVFR after 20Z Saturday, especially in the mountains. Light snow will develop on the back end of the forecast in the EKN area with MVFR visibilities developing after 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection/storms to vary. Wind gust extremes to vary in convection/storms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M L M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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