Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010843 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 443 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH TRIGGERING MORE STORMS. THE FRONT THEN SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO HUGE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST. COLD FRONT...AT 07Z...GENERALLY STRETCHED NW TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CREATE A BOUNDARY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ELECTED TO PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. GOOD NEWS IS...THE BULK OF STRONGER DYNAMICS LOOK AS THEY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STRONG STORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA OR EVEN SOUTHERN WV CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY...WENT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER...AND KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT...BUT...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH...AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA. AM SLIGHTLY CONCERNED ABOUT CONTINUED WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER ISSUES WITH TIME. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE ANY POTENTIAL ISSUES OR HEADLINES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THIS PERIOD FEATURES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW. TEMPERATURE AND STABILITY GRADIENT WILL FLUCTUATE IN POSITION BUT REMAIN MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A FRONT OSCILLATES OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. IT...AND UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES WILL FOCUS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE S...AS THEY CROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH THU AND FRI. PW VALUES ARE ACTUALLY PROGGED TO BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME...1.5 INCHES OR EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CAPE IS PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN ALMOST ABSENT ALTOGETHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS REFLECT THIS WITH MARGINAL RISK MAINLY S OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. MODELS AND CENTRAL GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH PEAK AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES INCLUDING THE NEAR TERM. THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT...SHOWING THE MAXIMUM AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ITS PEAK AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 5 INCHES. WILL CARRY MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. SMALL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH LOWS AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... ISOLD -SHRA REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN WV...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING RATHER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. ANY FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER 13-14Z...FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND. CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN...GENERALLY AFTER 18-21Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA...ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE CONVECTION WILL BE KBKW...KCRW AND KHTS. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING AFTERNOON HOURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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