Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 312328 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 728 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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730 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...AS CLOUD COVER/CU DISSIPATING QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH WHERE MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY IS IN THE CARDS. ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET...WITH CU FIELD TO FOLLOW. THIS SETS UP A MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT FLOW...A RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH BEST SHOT AT SEEING A POPCORN SHRA/TSRA BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFTER 04Z...DISSIPATING AFTER 13Z...FOR A RETURN OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN...AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND VA...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/30 NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...SL

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