Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050906 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 406 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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TURNING COLDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY...EAST INTO WV TODAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT MILD TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST WITH CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE FOR THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ONCE A MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FILLS WHILE PASSING...THEIR WILL BE A MARKED TRANSITION IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA JUST AFTER 12Z MONDAY...IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG...WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TAKING MORE OF A TUMBLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS OPPOSED TO 15Z MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COLDER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. INCORPORATED A STEADY DOSE OF THE MAV GUIDANCE IN THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RECENT TRACK RECORD. NO NON DIURNAL ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE. ALSO BROUGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX THRESHOLD UP TO 36F IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOW TO COOL HERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO INITIAL SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE INITIAL LOBE AROUND THE BROAD TROF SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND MAY HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF. MAY LEAD TO SOME ADVISORIES...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE...CONSIDERING 12 HOUR CRITERIA... MARGINAL. SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME. POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEM MAY STREAK SE ON DAY 7...BUT FOR NOW...WILL TRY TO KEEP NORTH. SO DRY ON THURSDAY. IN THE PAST 24 HRS...THE GFS CERTAINLY HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR. 12Z GFS TODAY MUCH SLOWER BRINGING THE MINUS 10C 850 MB TEMP...NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THINK 12Z GFS MAY HAVE BACKED OFF TOO MUCH. SO TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER THAN GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT CRW...EKN...AND BKW OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD SQUEEZE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WV AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE AN AREA OF CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. EVENTUALLY...THIS CLEARING COULD REACH CRW...PKB AND HTS BEFORE 09Z. HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AT BKW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH SO DID NOT ADD TO TAFS. TOMORROW EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING TONIGHT FROM MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. ALSO, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 02/05/16 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...FB/ARJ

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