Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232227 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 616 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH NOT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED IN NW OHIO AND IN...SO THINK THAT MODELS COULD HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND STIRRING...OPTED NOT TO GO WITH FOG. THIS IS VERY TRICKY THOUGH...AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. TIMING/EXISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. FOG COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H M M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H H M H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. && .EQUIPMENT... PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY EQUIPMENT...KTB

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