Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210635 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front today. Cool high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. Next cold front approaches next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday... Cold front at 230 AM entering western Ohio...with dew points behind the front in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Cold front and upper trough will move into the area today...with showers and isold thunderstorms...mainly east of the Ohio River. Could be a period early this afternoon of enhanced precipitation mainly across the south...as a vort max moves through the area...but overall...will see a gradual drying trend from west to east as the day progresses...and the frontal boundary pushes east. Much of the eastern half of the CWA will remain rather cloudy until at least early to mid afternoon...with SE ohio and eastern KY zones expected to gradually clear late this morning. Went with warmer temperatures in these areas as a result this afternoon. May still be some lingering cloud across the mountains later tonight...but most places looking at a clear sky as high pressure builds into the region. With the drier air mass progged to be across the area...low temperatures expected to dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s...much cooler than recent.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 235 AM Sunday... Models are in very good agreement for a very tranquil period. Behind the weekend cold front...high pressure over the Plains states will drive much drier and cooler air southward for Monday. Despite abundant sunshine...highs Monday will mostly be in the upper 70s. The high settles over the region Tuesday with continued abundant sunshine...but one more day of modification will drive temperatures up into the lower 80s for the most part. By Wednesday...the high center will be east of the area...and the combination of continued sunshine and southerly breezes will further boost the temperatures into the mid and upper 80s. Nights will also be initially quite cool...in the 50s Monday night...but rising to the mid and upper 60s by Wednesday night as low level moisture begins to return.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday... A cold front will approach by Friday. Convection is expected over the warm sector Thursday due to diurnal heating and some forcing. Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday and Saturday next week. Good chances for showers and storms along the cold front Friday. Followed WPC for temperatures through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Sunday... Moderate showers...out ahead of an approaching cold front...will cause brief MVFR restrictions. The cold front will move into southeast Ohio by 08-09Z...and east of the higher terrain by 18-21Z. After 15Z...isold thunderstorms possible...particularly across West Virginia and southwest Virginia. As the cold front moves through the region...several hours of IFR or LIFR cigs are possible...with gradual improvement to VFR from west to east generally after 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions with showers and thunderstorms could vary in timing and intensity. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/21/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M L L M L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H M H H L L L L M L BKW CONSISTENCY M H H L H H L M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M M L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M M M L L AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Fog possible most mornings early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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