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000
FXUS61 KRLX 140642
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
242 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Ohio River remains in flood into Monday. A cold front slips
into the area tonight then stalls, before returning northward as
a warm front Tuesday. A weak cold front Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

* Hot, dry and breezy today

* Conditional risk for strong to severe storms across the north
  this evening

A solid ridge/valley temperature split has developed overnight with
typical cold air drainage spots in the lower elevations sitting in
the lower 40s having cooled to near saturation while lowland ridges
and hilltops are still in the mid 50s. Slowly strengthening
southwesterly flow into daybreak should yield little additional
cooling for these higher locations.

Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected today under strong low
level warm advection on southwesterly flow. Under strong warm
advection, expect 50-70% of momentum transfer from the top of the
mixed layer to the surface as gusts, generally yielding gusts 30 to
35 mph this afternoon. Soils have dried appreciably with the dry and
breezy conditions seen yesterday, so not expecting to need another
impact based wind advisory for trees being more easily blown over.
With the combination of dry low levels and warm advection, will see
widespread highs cresting 80 degrees across the lower elevations
this afternoon.

With dew point mixing out down to the mid 30s across the south and
mid 40s across the north these warm temperatures will yield
afternoon RH values in the 25-35% range respectively. Given
recent rainfall where RHs are expected to be lowest (southern
coalfields) not expecting any significant fire weather concerns
there. Could see some higher risk of wildfire spread over
portions of SE OH and our northeast mountain valleys where
significantly less rainfall has been observed in the last few
days with 10 hr dead fuel moisture already down around 9%. Given
the state of the green up for most locations, would likely be
more difficult to get any fire into these dead fuels, but day
shift may check in with land management agencies to get their
opinion for some possible targeted fire danger statements.

An elevated mixed layer sourced from the Desert Southwest and Inter
Mountainous West will slide east over the region today. With very
dry air initially in place over the entire forecast area will see
effective zero chances for conditional instability release through
the daylight hours despite the presence of a kinematic environment
favorable for organized convection. This evening, moisture pooling
ahead of a weak cold front dropping in from the north along with
surface convergence along the front should yield some potential for
putting surface based parcels up into the EML and a still quite
solid kinematic environment, although late timing of this feature
may not yield too much this far south. SPC has depicted a slight
risk for severe storms along our northern tier of counties with an
enhanced risk just north of our forecast area - this would reflect
the faster end of the envelope regarding frontal timing and seems
reasonable given the environment storms would be going up into if
that faster timing materialized. Confidence in the faster solutions
however, remains rather low. With west to east flow atop the sagging
cold front, any storms that do persist this far south will likely
have trouble getting off the boundary leaving some doubt for
continuing discrete convection. A few elevated showers may persist
through the overnight making as far south as the Metro Valley, but
confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

A frontal boundary will stall over the region on Monday. While
moisture will be limited, there is a small chance of showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the front, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. North of the front, slightly
cooler temperatures can be expect across southeast Ohio and
northern West Virginia on Monday as compared to Sunday.

A front will return northward as a warm front on Tuesday,
providing for a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
This will also push afternoon temperatures well above normal for
this time of year, with readings in some locations of the
central and southern lowlands reaching 80 degrees.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase even more Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with a weak cold front pushing through the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 AM Sunday...

Slightly cooler air can be expected on Thursday behind a weak
cold front. A reinforcing cold front will then push through on
Friday, brining even cooler temperatures for the beginning of
the weekend. Unfortunately, models have diverged a bit on how
much cold air will move in behind the front on Saturday, and in
the handling of a wave or an additional reinforcing cold front.
Therefore, confidence for the weekend forecast is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Mainly clear skies through the daylight hours today, weak cold front
dropping south this evening could yield showers and thunderstorms
across the northern terminals, mainly after 00Z.

A relatively narrow window of marginal low level wind shear is
possible this morning 10-12Z before we start mixing - have
largely left this out of the TAFs with maximum wind speeds
below 2000 ft agl only 30-35KTs.

Light westerly winds this morning increase to 10-15KTs with gusts 25-
30KTs this afternoon with marginal low level wind shear developing
tonight if surface winds can sufficiently decouple.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Marginal wind shear possible this morning
10-12Z


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 04/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday morning. Brief IFR possible
in thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 430 PM Saturday...

  **Flooding Continues Along the Ohio River Through Monday**

Water from the Thursday heavy rain event continues to work into
the mainstem rivers. While flood waters have receded from much
of the area, flooding continues along portions of the Ohio
River. Minor to Moderate flooding is currently occurring from
Willow Island Lock down to Point Pleasant. The aforementioned
locations will all crest by Sunday afternoon/evening, then
slowly fall thereafter, with all locations exiting flood stage
by late Monday or early Tuesday morning. Further southwest,
gauges are anticipated to reach Action Stage. Additionally,
backwater flooding from the Ohio River on the connecting
tributaries will continue to produce water over some roadways,
even miles away from the Ohio River.

Please visit water.noaa.gov for specific river observations and
forecasts.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JP

HYDROLOGY...