Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260537 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 137 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE HRRR MODEL INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT BE VERY ABUNDANT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE AWHILE TO BUILD IN AS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-DAY ON SATURDAY. SINCE UPPER TROF DOES NOT ACTUALLY PUSH EAST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAY NOT HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS LONG ENOUGH. BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE THAT. WITH COLDER SIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP WILL MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL...BUT THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT EXPECT THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,,,CAUSING THE PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SW OHIO. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NE ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HAVE THUNDER POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH MVFR IN RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO GUSTY NW BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/26/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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