Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241754 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 154 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure with warm temperatures and increasing humidity by Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with isolated storms. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored deeper valleys. Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying down with the loss of heating. Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Ridging in the mid and upper levels throughout. With its axis just to our east...weak disturbances try to dent the ridge Wednesday into Thursday morning...before rebuilding late Thursday into Saturday. Overall...the trend was to lower our already meager pops for showers and thunderstorms with the weak disturbances. Was even slower introducing the 20 and 30 pops from the wsw on Wednesday with the initial weakening disturbance aloft. Was not too keen on thunder chances with that initial disturbance on Wednesday...but kept a slight chance in the tri state Hts vcnty. Best chance for showers appears to be our northwest counties overnight Wednesday night into Thursday...but still...we have pops no higher than 40 percent at this time. By Friday...you can forget about looking west. Main interest will be drawn to our southeast. The gfs solution was the first to indicate interesting features off the southeast coast Friday into Saturday...and it continues to be fairly consistent through its 00z run. Ecmwf recently has trended wetter there. Close call for Friday...but better chance on Saturday...for some 90 degree maximum temperatures in the southern and western river valleys. Considering our recent wet weather and green vegetation/canopy...we kept the 90 deg maximum temperature at bay on Friday. A southeast wind flow here may help with a 90 deg maximum temperature in the southern river valleys on Saturday. That same flow on Saturday may prevent the southern WV plateau temperature from rising above that observed on Friday. So the main theme is the summer preview...good timing for the holiday weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather, especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday given the breaking down of the ridge. The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the coastal Carolinas. Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions during the period with light surface winds. Patchy MVFR valley fog...generally after 09z...in deeper mountain valleys at sites such as KCRW and KEKN...with a couple hours of IFR fog possible at KEKN Wednesday morning. Any fog will dissipate after 12-13Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 09Z tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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