Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020735 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 335 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 715 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... DIURNAL HEATING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST. THESE WILL BE SLOW MOVING...BUT GENERALLY SMALL IN TERMS OF SURFACE AREA AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS MAKES THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST TRICKY...AND SUBSEQUENT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GROUND HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT...WHICH KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES GOING FOR THE LOWLANDS. WILL KEEP IT IN THE UPPER 80S RANGE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...FIGURING INSOLATION IS A NECESSITY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EQUINOX. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. MOST OF THE FORCING REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A VORT MAX MEANDERS AROUND LIKE A LOST DOG...BUT NEVER COMES HOME TO WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN A GENERAL VOID WHERE DIURNALLY FORCED STORMS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO DENT THE RIDGE BY DAY 7/TUESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THE FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT FOR DAY 4/SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER. UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA SPREADING CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEARING WILL CREATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TOGETHER WITH WARM RIVER WATERS...DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HTS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOST SITES TO DETERIORATE FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR DURING THE 09-12Z PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL HEATING...WITH A LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATIONS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ALONG THE STRONGER STORMS. DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IF RAINFALL WILL HIT AN AIRPORT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN ON TAFS. EXPECT IFR RIVER VALLEY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/02/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ/30/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...FB/KTB AVIATION...ARJ

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