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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 170543
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH. NEW FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRIED OUT POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT HAVE
THEM RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF FOG HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...EXPECT TO LAST UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN HEATING SHOULD HELP TO MIX THINGS OUT
QUICKLY. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
LOW DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH
A BUILDING EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. WHILE THERE ARE SOME PLACEMENT
AND SPEED DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WEAK UPPER FEATURE...THERE LOOKS TO
BE A BROAD CIRCULATION OF WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE HARD TO FIND BY SUNDAY...WILL FOCUS POPS IN A
DIURNAL NATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL STILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD START TO EXIT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY OR EVEN NIGHT TO NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE IN
A RATHER CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CWA IN NE PORTION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...HOWEVER A SW TROUGH RESIDES ON ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
AND IS SLOW TO PUSH EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA IN DISTURBED
WEATHER THROUGH DAY 4...WITH PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. LITTLE BREAK...IF ANY...IN THE
AGITATED WEATHER PATTERN AS NEXT SYSTEM IS QUICK TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SOLNS WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. RELUCTANT TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE. STAYED NEAR WPC GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
SAVE FOR LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BULK OF CONVECTION/SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIED DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL RAMP UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN WV AND MOUNTAINS OF
WV. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...BUT ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER PAST THAT TIME. IFR FOG THAT HAS
DEVELOPED TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF AFTER 12Z. BUT MVFR/IFR
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. OVERALL
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER 03Z SATURDAY MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND WORSE THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 05/17/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IFR FOG POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT HOURS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26/TAX
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...SL