Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 181724
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
124 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Light snow showers continue through this evening in the lower
elevations and through daybreak in the mountains. Dry and breezy
Tuesday with increased risk of wildfire spread.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Monday...
Cold air crossing the Upper Great Lakes is yielding enhanced low
level moisture across the region today. The surface layer remains
quite dry in the lowlands making it a tough journey to the surface
for any snowflakes falling out of the clouds based around 3000 to
4000 ft, but spotty flurries/snow showers remain possible through
early this evening with little to no accumulation expected. In the
mountains, upslope enhancement will yield a little better chance of
some light accumulating snow, but the combination of warm ground
temperatures, a fairly shallow dendritic growth layer and turbulent
boundary layer flow should limit any accumulations to an inch or two.
As skies clear overnight and winds lighten somewhat, will see
temperatures dipping into the upper 20s across most of the lower
elevations. While the growing season has not yet been declared
open, those with sensitive vegetation that has emerged early are
urged to take protective actions from the cold.
Winds shift more westerly overnight tonight in response to surface
low pressure approaching the Upper Great Lakes while surface high
pressure settles into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Channeled
flow between these features will yield breezy conditions Tuesday
with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 20 to 30 mph.
Coincident with these gusty winds, we will be mixing into some
very dry air aloft yielding relative humidity values dipping
into the mid 20s by Tuesday afternoon. While the greenup is
underway, dead fuels remain quite dry and prone to carrying
fire. In coordination with land management agencies and our
neighboring offices, will issue a fire danger statement with
afternoon to hopefully limit overnight burning and any holdover
risk heading into Tuesday. As a reminder, fire season laws are
in effect with open burning restricted to varying degrees during
the day.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...
Strong northwest flow behind exiting upper-level trough keeps gusty
winds around through the day Tuesday, with a wind advisory looking
likely across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph
counties late Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow showers will be tapering
off Tuesday morning with a few residual upslope snow showers lasting
into the afternoon. Tuesday will be 7 to 10 degrees warmer than
Monday with the lowlands reaching the low 50s in spots.
Secondary shortwave trough(clipper system) moves through Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Reintroducing chances for snow and rain
showers across the mountains Tuesday night. Additional snow
accumulations look iffy, but minimal snowfall is possible across the
West Virginia Ski Country. Fire weather could be a concern Tuesday
afternoon as RH values are forecasted to be in the 20s and lower 30s
across the forecast area and winds will be gusty; recent moisture
that will be picked up today could mitigate this threat though.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...
Largely drying out Wednesday night and Thursday with high pressure
at the surface underneath strong northwest flow. Thursday afternoon
will certainly be a concern for fire weather as breezy to gusty
northwest winds will mix down drier air, creating afternoon RHs
forecasted to be in the 20s.
Models are starting to agree on a track for our weekend system. The
southern stream trough looks to track across the deep south on
Friday, then moves northeast through the Piedmont of VA/NC/SC and
the DelMarVa. Without a direct hit from this system, kept chance
PoPs Friday through Saturday, due to the proximity of the low and
energy from the system moving over.
There does appear to be a brief window of snow showers that may
occur across SE Ohio and the northeastern mountains Friday
morning, but at this time confidence is low that there will be
impacts or accumulations. Guidance is trending for warmer
temperatures later this coming weekend/start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Monday...
Broken to overcast ceiling 030-050 streaming off the Upper Great
Lakes will produce light snow showers through this evening. Could
briefly see some visibility reductions with this activity, but will
remain most VFR in just flurries. Any snow showers taper off this
evening with skies progressively clearing from west to east during
the night.
Winds northwesterly 8-12KTs with gusts up to around 20KTs tonight.
Gusts should fall off tonight with winds switching more westerly,
before breezy conditions resume during the day Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF
amendments may be needed Monday afternoon for MVFR or even IFR
conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/LTC
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JP