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000
FXUS61 KRLX 131426
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1026 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Flooding becomes increasingly confined to the Ohio and
backwaters today. Breezy/dry today with dry weather continuing
through Sunday morning. A weak cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 AM Saturday...

Tweaked temperatures and dew points based on latest trends and
raised max temperature today by a couple of degrees with dry air
in place, plenty of sunshine, and the fact that we are already
several degrees warmer than previously forecast.

As of 9 AM Saturday...

Other than a small increase in wind gusts this morning, forecast
is on track.

As of 300 AM Saturday...

Winds have continued to taper off across the lower elevations
this morning. While gusts into the mid 20s remain possible
through the day today, these will likely be insufficient to
topple trees rooted in saturated soils - thus have canceled the
wind advisory for the lower elevations.

As of 120 AM Saturday...

Water continues to flow down into the mainstem rivers from recent
rainfall with rises on the Ohio expected through much of the weekend
yielding minor to moderate flooding. Should largely see any
remaining non-backwater flooding on the Ohio tributaries ending
through the day today.

Breezy conditions linger this morning in channeled flow between low
pressure departing into Eastern Canada and high pressure over the
Gulf Coast. Warm advection aloft will increasingly limit the ability
to mix into higher momentum air aloft through the day for the lower
elevations, but the higher ridges will remain more exposed. Will
continue Wind Advisories for the higher ridges of Pocahontas and
Randolph County through much of the daylight hours today. The lower
elevations will be dropped on time at 7 AM or cancelled a little
early depending on trends.

Aforementioned warm advection along with progressively more westerly
or west-southwesterly flow will break-up the remaining lake enhanced
stratocumulus over the region as well as cut off additional upstream
moist advection. Subsidence aloft will yield some very dry air at
the top of the boundary layer that deep mixing should be able to
take advantage of today with dew points dipping in the mid 30s as
daytime highs rise into the lower to mid 60s across the lower
elevations. This should help to dry out some already quite soggy
soils from the recent rainfall.

With dry air in place may be able to realize some cold air drainage
overnight... coupled with a low level jet nosing overhead around
daybreak this could yield a decent ridge/valley temperature split
for some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

Dry weather can be expected Sunday morning. Above normal
temperatures Sunday afternoon will aid in developing showers
and thunderstorms later Sunday in advance of a weak cold front.
This front will push into the region Sunday night, before
stalling over southern portions of the area and becoming
moisture starved on Monday. Even so, there is a small chance of
showers and thunderstorms along and south of the front over
southern West Virginia, Kentucky, and southwest Virginia. North
of the front, slightly cooler temperatures can be expect across
southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia on Monday as compared
to Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

A stalled frontal boundary will return northward as a warm front
on Tuesday, providing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
This will also push afternoon temperatures well above normal for
this time of year, with readings in much of the lowlands
topping out in the 80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
will increase Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a cold front
pushing through the area. Behind this front, cooler air can be
expected on Thursday. A stronger reinforcing front will then
push through on Friday, brining even cooler temperatures for the
beginning of the weekend. Models are in decent agreement, so
confidence in the late week forecast is higher than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Saturday...

Warm advection coupled with flow shifting west-southwesterly should
serve to breakup the remaining stratocumulus over the region through
late this morning with mainly clear skies expected through the
balance of the period.

Winds mainly westerly 8-12KTs with gusts to around 20KTs through
this afternoon, becoming light overnight.

A low level jet moving overhead will yield wind shear conditions
for all terminals by late in the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms late Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JP