Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151928 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 228 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Northwest winds to produce light upslope snow tonight. Cool under northwesterly flow aloft tonight through Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 220 PM Wednesday... Satellite images show fair weather isolated cu across most of the area, while additional cu and strato cu can be seen moving south into southwest OH and parts of WV early this afternoon and evening. Moderate and gusty winds will become light to moderate tonight. This flow will bring more dry and cool air causing temperatures to drop into the mid 20s. It will remain cool Thursday with below normal temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 AM Wednesday... Few lingering upslope snow showers across the area early Thursday, but will gradually taper off as the day progresses as the flow becomes less favorable, and moisture in the crystal growth zone erodes. Only light, generally less than half an inch, additional accumulations expected. Continued cool, but dry, Thursday and Friday under northwesterly flow aloft as upper trough remains across the east, with strong ridge across the central U.S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 110 AM Wednesday... Moderating temperatures over the weekend as upper heights build across the area in response to approaching upper shortwave trough, with showers overspreading the area by the end of the week. Another front, with additional rounds of showers will approach early next week. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Wednesday... With dry FROPA almost along the eastern mountains, northwest flow behind it will continue to bring cooler and drier conditions to the area through the period. The exception will be at EKN and the northeast mountains where lingering moisture and northwest winds will produce upslope snow there through tonight to create MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, IFR conditions will prevail through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could vary in wrap around moisture overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H L H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/DTC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ

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