Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151723 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 123 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and drizzle continue along and ahead of a cold front through early this evening. Cooler and dry this weekend. Cold to start the new work week, with snow showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Friday... A surface cold front continues to slowly work its way through the region from northwest to southeast through this evening. Ahead and along the cold front, patchy showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder will be possible through the afternoon. Some patchy drizzle may briefly linger behind the cold front, but would not expect any additional measurable amounts. Could see some clearing toward dawn across southeast Ohio, which given light winds and recent rainfall could yield some fog heading into the morning Saturday and will code some up for these areas. Any fog or remnant low clouds should mix out into substantially drier air aloft by late morning with temperatures rising to near normal values for this time of year by the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... To start this period off on Saturday, we have upper level zonal flow and surface high pressure which will hold the area at bay from unsettled weather. Temperatures will be trending downward from what the area has been enduring which will be right above seasonable. For Sunday, a low pressure system to the north will traverse across the region eastward promoting some slight chance POPs of rain for the northern periphery of the CWA. The features frontal boundary will hang just down into our area, which should be fairly dry, but will still have potential to see a shower or two in that region. This will reinforce cooler temperatures dropping them down to right around seasonable, maybe even a few degrees below for Sunday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1215 PM Friday... A cool northwesterly flow remains across the area on Tuesday, with the potential for another fast moving clipper type system affecting the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional light snow, mainly across the northern mountains. Temperatures moderate towards the end of the period as heights build and southerly flow increases out ahead of another system, which looks to affect the area late in the week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Friday... Showers and light drizzle continue ahead of and along an approaching cold front with deteriorating flight conditions ahead of and along the front. Behind the front, improvement to MVFR ceilings is expect late this afternoon and into this evening, with eventual clearing across at least portions of SE OH and NW WV heading into daybreak Saturday. With light winds and recent rainfall, this will likely yield at least patchy fog, most likely to affect PKB and HTS, but could easily extent to the other terminals. At BKW, upslope flow likely yields persistent LIFR conditions shortly after winds switch around to the northwest. Winds westerly 8-10KTs, shifting west-northwest after frontal passage, and turning light overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility in any patchy drizzle this afternoon could be lower than advertised. Fog Saturday morning could be more widespread and dense than advertised. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H L H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/SL NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JP

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