Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250758 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 258 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CHRISTMAS DAY STARTS COLD...CLOUDY...AND WINDY...WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SAT IR IMAGERY AS OF 0730Z SHOWING WELL DEFINED STRATCU DECK STRETCHING FROM KENTUCKY...NORTHWARD INTO INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD DECK TO HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SLATED TO OCCUR...AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE THAT WILL LEAD TO A SUNSHINY CHRISTMAS DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWLANDS AND SE OHIO. FOR TEMPS...LATCHED ONTO INHERITED FCST TEMPS FOR TODAYS HIGHS AND USED A BC BLEND IN COMBO WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES TO COME UP WITH OVERNIGHT MINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS VARY A BIT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BEFORE A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN THE MODEL SPREAD...SO WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ONE THING THAT ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL...SO WILL SLOW DOWN INITIAL POPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM IS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND THEN A SECONDARY WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE SECOND WAVE...KEEPING IT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS TRENDING THIS WAY AS WELL. STARTED WITH WPC GUIDANCE...AND THEN BLENDED IN ANOTHER DOSE OF THE GFS. HAVE THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THEN HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE AS COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. THERE STILL MAY BE LOCAL IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED AS SWIFT JET MAXIMA PASSES WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. WILL CARRY SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ACROSS ALL SITES INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS RELAX BY ABOUT 15Z AND WE SHOULD SEE A SLACKENING OF SFC WINDS. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH TODAY WITH A TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z...WORKING WEST TO EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT...AND IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/25/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KMC

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