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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 160555
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
SUNDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 AM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.

1010 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MCV OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AT 17 UTC...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND
POSSIBLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IT STILL APPEARS MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING INTO
OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS AS WELL AS WPC 6-HR QPF GUIDANCE
ALL INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT THIS
THINKING...SO HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS. MAY EVEN INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH TO CATEGORICAL.

PREVIOUS MINT AND MAXT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SINKING SOUTH OF CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS SINKING SOUTH WITH IT...POSSIBLY
GETTING HUNG UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR A BIT MONDAY. WITH
SEVERAL UPPER RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS NEARLY AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN PLACEMENT...BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE/500MB VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY...SO
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP
FORECAST...CONTINUES TOO LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS SHOULD BE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST...SHOULD ONLY SEE
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP UP THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TO ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY AND INCLUDED CHANCE POPS WITH THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP FOG
COVERAGE AT BAY...ALTHOUGH DEEP...SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH
AS EKN MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...MAINLY AFTER 12-15Z
SUNDAY. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. GREATEST PERIOD OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD BY AND AFTER 00Z MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 06/16/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ
NEAR TERM...JSH/SL/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...50