Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290542 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 142 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mainly high clouds will continue to overspread the area into the morning hours as the upper trof entrains some upper level moisture from Bonnie. Models agree on breaking off a piece of the mid level energy associated with Bonnie and sending it northward into NC/VA today...keeping the greatest coverage of shra just to the east of the mountains. Elected to cap pops in the 50ish range in the Northern mountains for this reason. Elsewhere it is a bit difficult to determine coverage of any shra/tsra today as the area gets the squeeze play between the piece of Bonnie and the approaching upper level trof. Near term hi res models continue to generate some early morning shra along the mid level moisture axis that has remained over KY/OH the past few days. This axis shifts eastward across E KY/E OH this morning and into WV this aftn as the s/w trof pivots into the upper OH Valley. Have raised pops a bit from previous fcst across SE OH/NE KY/W WV midday to early aftn as a result...still capping in the chance category. With an abundance of high clouds overhead...thinking thunder chances will be tempered...especially across the mountains. Highs today should be a good 5 degrees lower with the mid/high level clouds overhead. For tonight the lagging cold front looks to enter the area with little fanfare other than a wind shift and mainly aloft. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Afternoon heating, precipitable water around 1.25 and some buoyancy will keep low chance pops sunday night. Although low level moisture decreases some, there will be enough instability and moisture to keep isolated showers or storms on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west bringing better chance for showers or storms. The GFS and ECMWF show decreasing QPF Sunday night and early Monday. While the GFS show afternoon convection, the ECMWF keeps light showers for the whole day Monday. Went with a compromise between these two models coding chance PoPs. Models are in agreement bringing dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High clouds will continue to overspread the area from the SW into the morning hours. As a result dense fog should be confined to the Northern mountain valleys to include KEKN. Appears a brief window of mainly MVFR fog for KPKB/KHTS before the high clouds thicken by 09z. Did put a tempo IFR at KPKB until 08z given recent trends. Isolate showers this morning are possible across E OH/NE KY as mid level moisture axis shifts E with the approaching S/W trof. Thinking they will remain W of KHTS/KPKB this morning before regenerating with heating midday over the area. Elected to roll with VCTS at aforementioned sites as well as KCRW for a few hours this aftn. Bulk of the shra with loosely associated energy with Bonnie will remain E of the mountains today...but still chances high enough to give a VCSH mention at KEKN. Thunder chances look minimal there. The S/W trof pivots thru the area tonight with the lagging cold front crossing overnight with little fanfare other than a wind shift to NW...mainly aloft. There may be some dense river valley fog forming late tonight should enough clearing take place. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of fog late tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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