Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 271812 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
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
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT. STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL TUNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z. FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND HTS. THERE IS THE DELIMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...KTB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.