Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141908 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 208 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses late Wednesday. High pressure crosses Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Tuesday... Low stratus has been tough to scatter east of the Ohio River thus far as the low level flow gradually veers around to the east amid negligible WAA thus far. As the flow turns more southeasterly and WAA increases this evening, much of the lingering stratus should erode. Of course this will lead to the eastern slopes locking in low clouds overnight. Lows were derived from a blend of a consensus approach. Wednesday morning should start with sunshine, but quickly become filtered by an advancing cirrus canopy ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite this, temps in the southeast flow downslope areas should reach upper 50s. Timing of the front looks to hold off until Wednesday evening...though prefrontal band of showers will work in from west to east late in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 210 PM Tuesday... A cold front will push southeast across the area Wednesday night resulting in a good chance of showers. Models suggest that the airmass will be warm enough for much of the precipitation to fall in the form of rain. However, there could be some snow showers in the highest elevations late Wednesday night as colder air filters in. However, any snow showers that form should quickly switch back over to rain showers before ending Thursday. High pressure builds in by late Thursday and remain in place Thursday Night. Generally used a blend of guidance for the high temps for Thursday and lows Wednesday night and Thursday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 210 PM Tuesday... High pressure should move east allowing a strong cold front to push southeast. Models diverge with the timing of cold front. GFS is faster with the front pushing southeast on Saturday while the ECMWF brings it on Saturday. Have gone with a model blend with the front pushing southeast by late Saturday. There will be a good chance of precipitation with this feature and have gone with likely PoPs. Would not be too surprised if the PoPs ended up being even higher. Combination of colder air, sufficient low-level moisture and northwest flow should result in a decent shot of upslope snow in the favored locations beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday night. We will have to continue to watch for a possible model solution convergence. Temperatures on Friday should be near normal with above normal readings expected on Saturday ahead of the front. Behind the front, below normal temperatures should prevail Sunday and Monday with a warming trend Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Tuesday... Lingering low stratus and stratocu will keep general MVFR for HTS/CKB/EKN/BKW thru 20Z, after which bases should rise into low end VFR before scattering out this evening. Low level flow turns more southeasterly and increases 10 to 15 kts. This should prevent dense fog formation at the terminals, save for some MVFR vsby at EKN. Low stratus on the eastern slopes may sneak into BKW during the predawn, but confidence not high enough to include in TAF at this distance. VFR conditions dominate Wednesday 12 to 18Z as cirrus advances into the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement this afternoon may vary an hour or so. MVFR cigs may develop into BKW overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/AB NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JSH/AB LONG TERM...JSH/AB AVIATION...30

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