Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230835 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 304 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY STARTS COLD...CLOUDY...AND WINDY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AND WEST OF THE OH RIVER. AFTER THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...CWA WILL BE LEFT IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AS BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH. WE THEN LOWER POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDERGOES SOME DRYING WITH LARGER SCALE WWA. ALONG AND WEST THE OH RIVER...LEFT HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN REGION NORTH OF WHERE SFC LOW TO FORM...WHERE SOME UPWARD FORCING EXISTS. POPS THEN RAMP UPWARDS TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...AND INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS WILL AS MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NAM AND SREF ARE SLOWER LIFTING THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION...THINK THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL SIDE MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SIDE. MODELS THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN OHIO. NAM SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SERIOUS MOMENTUM TRANSFER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MARGINAL FOR AUTO CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS WILL EXIST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CHRISTMAS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE A WELCOME RETURN WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY 00Z...MODELS DIVERGE WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS FOR POPS AS THAT SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ECMWF. SOME WAVINESS AROUND THE TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY MIX AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW TWEAKS. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY A MIXED BAG OF VFR AND MVFR TO START THE PERIOD AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. INTRODUCED MENTION OF PRECIP EITHER IN THE FORM OF VCSH OR AS A -RA VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT MOST SITES AS BATCH RAIN SHOWERS WORKS NORTH ALONG THE KY-WV BORDER. ALSO LENGTHENED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KBKW BASED ON LATEST SAT IR AND RADAR TRENDS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE COALFIELDS AND ACROSS THE OH RIVER SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT NOT BY MUCH AS WAA HELPS LIFT CIGS SOME. WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE BY 18Z. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN. S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 12/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H M M H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NT INTO WED. IFR IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/LS NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...KMC

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