Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241739 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STRONGER FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LEAD TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...KEEPING MENTION OF RIVER FOG FOR SATURDAY MORNING...EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GENERALLY KEPT INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS IN PLACE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...A SHORTWAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT PRODUCES SHOWERS AND A STORM ALONG ITS PATH. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING IN THEIR QPF FIELDS. DELAYED POPS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...KEEPING SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES AT H500 WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORM THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE ADJUST MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS...AND CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKING. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO REGION AND WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN PUSHES EAST LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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IFR/VLIFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEYS...GENERALLY AFTER 08Z. FOG BURNS OFF AFTER 13-14Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG BURN OFF FOR SATURDAY MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...KMC

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