Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211732 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 132 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM AREA...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING FLOW AND MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. DRIER ON FRIDAY. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RADAR INDICATES SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORMS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...FEW CLOUDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WHILE MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LOCATED IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO HAVE LIGHT FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE EXPECTED WEATHER ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESEMBLE THAT FROM TODAY. DENSE FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THERE MAY BE MORE STORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO FORECASTED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NOT SURE IF I WANT TO GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE...BUT DID BUMP FORECASTED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM TODAY...CONTINUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 700 MB FLOW STILL 5 TO 10 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY. THE WET GROUND MAY HINDER SOME 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. YET...WHAT WIND THERE IS...MAY BE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES. BEFORE WE START LOOKING WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WE NEED TO LOOK SOUTH...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK 500 MB CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. 00Z GFS WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK N AND NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. DID NOT JUMP ON THAT SOLUTION YET. YET...DID INCREASE POPS AND CLOUDS A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LINGER SOME 30 TO 20 POPS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...TRIED TO HOLD THE WESTERN LOWLANDS NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...00Z NAM WAS THE FASTEST WITH FIRST ROUNDS OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...ITS MOS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A GOOD BIT LOWER. DID NOT GO THAT FAST. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 20 TO 21Z WEDNESDAY...SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AGREE WITH SPC AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IN TERMS OF SEVERITY OF STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT FOR DAY 3. YET...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. STEERING FLOW INCREASING TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS ON NAM...GFS WEAKER IN MID LEVELS. WE STILL HAVE NO HAZARD IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE SURFACE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 00Z NAM WAS AGAIN THE FASTEST CLEARING FROM NNW TO SSE. DID NOT GO THAT FAST. HELD ONTO POST FRONTAL CLOUDS THROUGH MOST THURSDAY NIGHT... MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TIL NEAR DAWN FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... POPULATED GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. 5H TROUGH SLIDES EAST...WHILE AT THE SFC THERE WILL BE AND AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...WITH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ON FRIDAY AND SATUDAY. A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...AS CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. NEAR-CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN BY 03Z-06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FOR THE LOWLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF REDUCED VIS IN THOSE AREAS. THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND COVERAGE MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...JSH

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