Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151454 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1054 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST TODAY. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1050 AM UPDATE... FOG BEING STUBBORN TO LIFT THIS MORNING UNDER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND WEAK FLOW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW IT BEGINNING TO LIFT THOUGH. AS IT DOES SO...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF BKN STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS AND SE WV. THE AFTERNOON STILL SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS OVERHEAD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THIS MORNING. AS A A RESULT...DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECT FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES....WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PREVIOUS POP FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL TIMING. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV NUMBERS. HOWEVER...TRENDED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH WERE COOLER FOR HIGHS TODAY. MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE CLOSE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND COULD NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THEN...A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE MID AND UPPER PLAINS...EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND WV ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WEAK TO CALM FLOW...WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK TO PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EACH DAY. USE A COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REFLECT COOL NIGHTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD AFTERNOONS DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AT H850 ABOUT 9C THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS AT START OF OF THIS TIME FRAME...WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE FIGURED FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS THE DOOR SHUT FOR THE RETURN OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. WITH HIGH CENTER JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WILL TRY TO HAVE MINIMUM TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCLUDED JUST THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS E OF ELKINS. FIGURING NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH A E AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 850 MBS...DID KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MENTIONED A 20 SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY IN THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE. WILL ACCEPT WPC MEDIUM RANGE AND START INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE DAY 7 FEATURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE. RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z...BUT MVFR TO LOW END VFR STRATUS HANGS ON IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR BR...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF IFR/LIFR DENSE FOG AFT 06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ NEAR TERM...JSH/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...JSH

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