Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191922 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 222 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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PERSISTENT CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS MAY CLIP THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. DRY ON SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND MAY CLIP OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH SOME PRECIPITATION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODELS AND SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH THE STRATOCU. SOME DRYING...ERODING CLOUDS AND CLEARING SKIES TAKING PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES AND INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. THIS CLEARING WON`T LAST LONG AS SATELLITE PICS SHOWING HIGH TO MID CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SW. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS AND ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A WAVE LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES. THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SKIRTS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AROUND THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIMES. WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND AND A QUICK WARM UP AS THE SUN RISES...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT/ TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THERE -SN OR A -RASN WILL BE OBSERVED. AT THIS POINT...IMPACTS FOR THIS EVENT LOOK MINIMAL. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE OVER AN INCH...AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. THIS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY CHANGING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW CWA WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG AND POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REMAINS A TRICKY SYSTEM TO FORECAST IN TERMS OF OVERALL IMPACTS...AS GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY AT LEAST INITIALLY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWLANDS...TO LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE HOWEVER DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THE STORM IN THE HWO...SINCE IT WILL AFFECT THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS. SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS DAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF -SHSN.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON OVER TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BKW WHICH MAY GO VFR CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS START INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY BECOME MAINLY VFR TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY NORTH. AFT 12Z CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN AS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TRANSITION FROM MVFR CIGS TO VFR CIGS MAY VARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY. ALSO, TIMING OF REFORMATION OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN WV SATURDAY MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BEING IFR TO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/SL/LS NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JS

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