Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 151426
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1026 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms into Friday as a cold front gradually
passes through the region. Cooler and dry this weekend. Cold to
start the new work week, with snow showers for some.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 925 AM Friday...
Undercut PoPs again based on latest trends. Still should see
showers developing along and ahead of the approaching cold front
late morning into this afternoon. Could still see a couple
strikes ahead of the front, but instability will be pretty
meager.
As of 725 AM Friday...
Made some significant reductions to PoPs this morning to better
reflect current conditions. Should see some additional showers
developing ahead of an approaching cold front late morning into
this afternoon.
As of 225 AM Friday...
A weak low pressure system developed along a lingering cold front
northeast of the area this morning. This cold front will push
southeast today, spreading showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms
mainly across the WV lowlands. Although the best instability stays
west of the area, plenty of deep layered shear and SRH will be
present under PWATs around 1 inch to support moderate to heavy
showers.
Very weak CAA at H850 and behind the front will keep about normal
temperatures this afternoon, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s higher elevations. A
few showers may linger across the south and the mountains Friday
evening before drier and cooler weather takes hold for the weekend.
Central guidance suggests clear skies developing across the Middle
Ohio valley tonight. The clearing and subsiding winds will promote
patchy dense fog over areas that previously received rainfall.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...
To start this period off on Saturday, we have upper level zonal
flow and surface high pressure which will hold the area at bay
from unsettled weather. Temperatures will be trending downward
from what the area has been enduring which will be right above
seasonable.
For Sunday, a low pressure system to the north will traverse across
the region eastward promoting some slight chance POPs of rain
for the northern periphery of the CWA. The features frontal
boundary will hang just down into our area, which should be
fairly dry, but will still have potential to see a shower or two
in that region. This will reinforce cooler temperatures
dropping them down to right around seasonable, maybe even a few
degrees below for Sunday.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...
Starting Monday, a clipper type system will spread some snow
potential to the area with accumulations mainly across the
mountains. Some accumulations got into the forecast from
central guidance across some of the lowlands, but with warm
ground temperatures and surface temperatures in the low 40s
forecast that day, it will be difficult to get any accumulations
unless the surface temperatures decrease by then. Regardless,
only little to no accumulations are expected in the lowlands
anyways with slightly higher amounts up to 2 inches in the
northeast mountains through the afternoon.
Some lingering showers may add to the totals in the mountains
for the rest of the day on Monday, however the additional
amounts would likely be insignificant to the actual totals.
For Tuesday, cooler trends will persist with slight chances for
some more snow showers in the northeast mountains mainly.
Temperatures will start to trend warmer on Wednesday lasting
through the rest of this period with dryer weather until
possibly late Thursday.
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.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 649 AM Friday...
Lingering stratiformed light rain exits east of the Appalachians by
12Z. A cold front is expected to dig southeast today, spreading
additional rain showers. Although guidance suggests limited
bouyancy, dynamic instability is high/enough to promote afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly along and east of the OH River.
General guidance suggest ceilings will become MVFR behind the cold
front, affecting most terminals by 18Z. Brief periods of IFR
conditions are expected along showers or storms path this afternoon.
Rain gradually dissipates from northwest to southeast by Friday
evening.
Flight conditions will gradually deteriorate this evening as the
cold front exits southeast. Some areas of IFR under dense fog could
develop over areas where skies clear overnight tonight.
South to southwest winds less than 10 knots will become
northwest behind the cold front this afternoon and evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms today could
vary. Timing of reduced ceilings this afternoon or tonight may vary
from the forecast. Brief periods of IFR restrictions are possible
within heavier showers this afternoon.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H M H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M L H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ARJ