Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230820 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 420 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure with warmer temperatures today. Warm front tonight into Friday morning. Low pressure systems pull cold fronts through Sunday, Tuesday and perhaps late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Thursday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. High pressure remains in control during the period with dry, and warmer weather, as the high slides off to the east and upper heights build across the region. Still quite dry air in place, with somewhat poor relative humidity recoveries across spots overnight. Looking at another low RH day today, with RH`s bottoming out in the teens to 20s. The good news is, overall surface winds should remain somewhat light. Warm frontal boundary will lift north across the region later tonight, with increasing clouds, and a slight chance for showers across the far north. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 420 AM Thursday... Surface ridging along the southeast U.S. coast keeps the area in south to southwest flow of increasingly warm and humid air Friday into Saturday night, providing a nice start to the first weekend of spring. A southern stream upper level low opens up as it passes north of the area Saturday night through Sunday night, pushing a weakening pacific cold front through the area late Sunday. This is likely to make Sunday a wet day with a good chance for thunderstorms, given some instability in a theta e ridge and over 30 kts mean mid level flow. Precipitation begin moving out of the area from west to east Sunday night, as the system pulls out, leaving low level moisture in its wake. Temperatures close to central guidance, including a warm Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 420 AM Thursday... Mild, moist but progressive spring pattern prevails this period with southern stream systems pulling cold fronts through the area every three days or so. One front crosses late Tuesday. Models begin to diverge on when the next upper level low ejects out of the southwestern states later next week. Temperatures close to central guidance, which is below the MEX early on.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 AM Thursday... VFR conditions for the period with light southerly surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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