Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 142224 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 624 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING THIS EVENING. THEN...POPULATED OVERNIGHT POPS FOLLOWING THE WRFARW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PINPOINTING ON ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS WV INTO 12Z TUESDAY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE THE RULE...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WV LOWLANDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE THREAT OF SEEING A STORM DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY... WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND AS A RESULT...HAVE CHANGED THE PRECIP TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER 16Z TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX IN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS WELL. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE QUITE TRICKY AS LATEST MOS NUMBERS ALL SUGGEST THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER 13Z...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY SLOWLY FALLING MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPS AT SUNRISE COULD BE IN THE 50S...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH TEMP TRENDS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY CLOSER TO THOSE SHOWN BY THE MET GUIDANCE...AS I FEEL THE HOURLY MAV TEMPS ARE TOO WARM FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... OUR SPRING FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...WE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE LOWLAND COUNTIES. OF COURSE...THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLDER...BUT THE SPRING FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT BEEN INITIATED FOR THOSE COUNTIES YET. CONSIDERING MODEL FORECASTS...THAT HAVE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MINUS 10C TO MINUS 12C...WAS A BIT SLOWER LOWERING THE POPS IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF IN WV TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE IS LONG GONE...MOISTURE LINGERS AOB 5 THSD. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE LAYER MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME CRYSTAL GROWTH/FLAKES. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW FOR THE HIGH CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE WIND AND CLOUDS HOLDING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SIDED MORE TOWARD THE MILDER GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN WV. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS...WAS COLDER IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. WITH THE WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIKED OUR PREVIOUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THAT NIGHT...BEING A BIT WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. LOWERED SKY GRIDS AOB 10 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE SOME CIRRUS INCREASING THOSE NUMBERS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGE ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE THURSDAY EITHER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MULTIPLE S/W TROFS SWING THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEAN UPPER TROF TRIES TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE E CONUS. NO DAY LOOKS LIKE A TOTAL WASHOUT BUT DO BELIEVE A FEW SHRA WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR THOSE DAYS. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY THE RULE IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWLAND COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z. TSRA POSSIBLE AND TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL BE PREVAILING...SO HAVE OPTED FOR THE VCTS/CB CODING IN THE TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 03Z...CROSS THE OHIO RIVER 06Z-08Z AND THEN PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AFT 13Z. EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS FRONT PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. TSRA POSSIBLE AND TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL BE PREVAILING...SO HAVE OPTED FOR THE VCTS/CB CODING IN THE TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30KT THRU 23Z. A SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST CAN BE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PASS TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20 KT SHOULD BE THE RULE AFT 13Z TUE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY BOUNCES COULD LEAD TO TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS. MAY NEED PREVAILING TSRA. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN WV MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/30 NEAR TERM...JSH/ARJ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JSH

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