Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191501 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1045 AM UPDATE... WOW...WHAT A YUCKY DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...MORE REMINISCENT OF FALL. IN FACT MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO SURPASS THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL TIME RECORD LOW MAXES FOR MONTH OF JULY APPEAR SAFE AT ALL SITES...THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. LOW CRUD AMID -RA FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER S/W TROF WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAX OVER C-E KY AS OF 15Z WHICH THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON. WILL ROLL WITH NEAR ACE POPS FROM C TO E WV ZONES AND SW VA INTO AFTN HRS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING PRECIP AXIS OFF TO THE E AND NE AS ENERGY PIVOTS THRU. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND NW OF OH RIVER BUT THEY WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS. UNDERCUT HIGHS TODAY BASED ON LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE BUT STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIP NOW MAKING IT INTO SW CWA...AND SHOULD SEE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL LIFT THROUGH TODAY...WITH RENEWED POPS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY...ALTHOUGH COULD GET SOME BREAKS ACROSS SE OHIO...AND HAVE WARMEST AFTERNOON HIGHS THERE. THIS COULD ALSO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...WITH NAM ADVERTISING UP TO AROUND 500J/KG CAPE. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN ACTUALLY GETTING ANYTHING. HAVE LIKELY POPS WINDING DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO LOWS FOR TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID 60S IN THE TRI-STATE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE WEAK 500 MB TROF IN THE EAST GETS NUDGED TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS HEIGHTS TRY TO RISE IN THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...A WEAKENING STEERING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND. THE ONLY CONSTANT APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK SE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. BOTH 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH EL AROUND 35 THSD IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. SO REINTRODUCED SOME POPS IN THE WEST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION FORMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY LEFT THE CHANCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM OR SHOWER COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE DAY. HELD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...WITH SOME 90 DEG MAXIMUMS REAPPEARING IN THE WEST. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...BUT WITH OVERNIGHT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THICK FOG YET. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONFIDENCE WAS INCREASING THAT THE UPPER TROF MENTIONED IN TEXT BELOW...WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... USED HPC/WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME TWEAKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A BREAK IN PCPN ACTIVITY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE RUNS LOW TO TARGET THE AREA WITH HIGHER POPS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. WENT WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY LOOK REPRESENTATIVE. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIG/VIS DEPENDING ON THE SITE. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING...AS VORT MAX CURRENTLY DRIVING PRECIP IN TN MOVES INTO AREA. WITH SE WIND EXPECT BKW TO GET LOCKED INTO LOW STRATUS WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...IF WE WERE TO GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WOULD EXPECT IT ALONG OR WEST OF OHIO RIVER WHERE BETTER DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR. DESPITE SOME FLOW...AND CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...THINK WET GROUND WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE 2-4 MILE VIS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ESPECIALLY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RA MAY VARY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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