Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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115 FXUS61 KRLX 141822 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 222 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure influences fade tonight. A cold front crosses Sunday afternoon and evening. Much cooler early next week. High pressure with warming trend balance of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Saturday... Mainly clear conditions and unseasonably warm weather continues for the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Overnight temperatures stay on the mild side for the most part in south southwesterly flow as strong cold front pushes towards the area. No major timing changes with the showers/storms and frontal passage. Best chance for thunder will be upon arrival in the Ohio and Kentucky zones, gradually fading away around the I-79 corridor. Regardless, wind threat exists, and may need a few statements as the convection works through the CWA. Temperatures should be above normal again Sunday with time to heat/mix before the cold front passes, and wind gusts will also be on the increase as the dynamics strengthen in proximity to the system. Cold front should be a clean sweeper through the mountains heading into the short term with a significant change of airmass.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM Saturday... On Sunday, a cold front will traverse the CWA, with showers, and isolated thunderstorms forming as it does so. With strengthening pressure gradient and winds aloft, some of the showers or isolated storms could have gusty winds associated with them, although at this point, no widespread severe is expected. Precipitation will continue into Sunday evening across far southern/eastern zones, as the front continues to push eastward. Much cooler temperatures will usher into the region behind the front for Monday, but no widepsread fog or frost/freeze expected in the short term period due to continued light wind behind frontal passage. There will however be a slight possibility for showers or sprinkles across the far north on Monday, as upper shortwave trough moves east through the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 420 AM Saturday... Much cooler, and very dry early and mid next week behind cold front. Monday night/Tuesday morning still looks to be a night of good radiational cooling, with surface high across the region, and much cooler air across the CWA, 850mb temps in the single digits. Expecting a fairly widespread frost/freeze Tuesday morning, and as with previous forecast, lowered temps a bit Tuesday morning from the blender. The southern lowlands/coal fields of WV are the more iffy locations with this scenario, with other areas more likely. Focus for the remainder of the week turns to the very dry air mass progged to be in place, with cool mornings, and warm sunny days. No significant fire threat at this time due to overall lack of winds, but will be warmer, with low RH afternoons. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 135 PM Saturday... VFR through the period, with the exception of EKN going to LIFR fog after 07Z tonight. Some wind gusts to 15-20kts will be possible today in increasing southerly flow. This will increase Sunday, especially as daytime heating/boundary layer mixing commences, with gusts to 20-25kts possible by the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LIFR in EKN tonight is in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible with a cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Dense overnight and morning valley fog next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...26

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