Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200800 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 400 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front draped over Northern West Virginia is slowly drifting south this morning. It will stall and then drift back to the north today. A stronger cold front crosses from the west Sunday night with high pressure moving in behind it by Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 340 AM Saturday... Cold front continues to slowly drift to the south this morning. This front will eventually stall across Central West Virginia and then start to slowly lift northward this afternoon and evening. Generally the front will be nearly stationary for most of the day. Similar to yesterday, much uncertainty exists with today`s forecast. Again we are looking at a high Cape and low shear day, with generally isolated thunderstorms possible in the warm sector through the day today, as upper level ridge keeps the midlevels quite dry and capped through much of the day. However, later this afternoon the flow will shift to southerly and the front will finally start to drift north again. Convection will likely develop to our west/southwest and move along this boundary this evening. Would expect something similar to what we saw last night, but this time the line of convection may not make it too far east of the Ohio River Valley. PWATs will be high again this evening and with yesterday`s convection flash flood guidance values will be low in some areas. We may have water issues if convection tonight goes over these same areas once again.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... By Sunday and Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms activity will increase from west to east as a warm front lifts northeast followed by a cold front. Pwats increase to 1.9 inches with limited sfc CAPE and deep layered shear. Therefore, expect an environment conducive to flash flooding and not severe for Sunday. The cold front moves east diminishing rainfall over the area during the overnight hours. Areas that have already received heavy rainfall from Friday morning and afternoons will be more vulnerable for water problems and for the potential flash flooding during the end of the weekend. Behind the front, expect a period of cooler and drier air early Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... Cooler and drier weather will prevail at the beginning of next week. However, the chances for rain return by midweek with the next frontal system. Temperatures will return to a more seasonable level during this period. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Saturday... Showers and thunderstorms are coming to an end across the area for the remainder of the night. Now the big question is if we see fog or low stratus with the abundant moisture in the low levels. Valley fog could form and may become dense in areas that received rainfall. Low stratus may be more likely in vicinity of stationary front that stretches from east to west across Northern West Virginia. Conditions should improve back to VFR by late morning. More showers and thunderstorms are possible by Saturday afternoon, but still quite a bit of uncertainty on where showers or storms will set up. Southeast upslope flow should bring MVFR ceilings back into BKW by midnight Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cloud cover could keep areas from seeing fog even with the saturated grounds. Uncertainty on how far south stratus will drift with the stationary front. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L M H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H L H L L H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M H H M M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Isolated IFR possible in fog Sunday and Monday nights, and in showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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