Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 150017
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
817 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms later tonight into Friday as a cold front
gradually passes through the region. Cooler and dry this weekend.
Cold to start the new work week, with snow showers for some.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 435 PM Thursday...
Made a quick update to increase PoPs across the Mid-Ohio Valley
to represent the activity currently moving in/across the area.
Activity has generally weakened, with mainly just scattered
showers across SE OH and far northwest WV. A couple strong to
severe storms are approaching NE KY and our far southwestern
counties in SE OH. The area of most concern is NE KY as a
gradually weakening supercell continues to slide eastward
towards the area. Large hail and gusty winds are the main
threats. The storm should continue to slowly weaken as it
encounters dry low-level air across the region.
Further southeast, the main concern continues to be elevated
fire weather conditions this evening due to RH values in the
mid 20s to low 30s, with wind gusts of 15-25 MPH. Please
continue to follow local/state spring fire laws.
As of 200 PM Thursday...
Key Points:
- A decaying line of storms may bring some briefly gusty
conditions to Southeast Ohio in the middle or late afternoon.
- Locally heavy rain is possible later tonight into Friday
across much of the area.
The line of storms currently moving across western Ohio will
likely push east to our Ohio counties between 330PM and 5PM or
so this afternoon. It remains to be seen how strong they`ll be
by the time they reach there, but at least some showers and
gusty winds appear possible. As they reach and pass Parkersburg,
they`ll continue to weaken, and may completely dissipate before
reaching the Clarksburg area. After that initial line, expect a
brief break before areas of showers and some steadier rain ahead
of the approaching front, along with embedded thunderstorms,
slides southeastward across the area tonight. Expect the precip
to continue for much of the morning, then gradually end from
northwest to southeast in lower elevations between noon and
sunset on Friday. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing in the higher terrain at the end of the
period.
After a very warm day today, with lower elevation highs largely
in the mid to upper 70s and mountain highs in the 60s, the
clouds and S`ly winds ahead of the front will keep it mild
tonight - 50s to near 60s for most. With the rain and clouds
tomorrow, highs on Friday will be limited to the 50s in the
mountains and 60s at lower elevations, and if the front moves
faster than expected, that would limit temps further in our far
northwestern zones.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...
A few showers may linger across the south and the mountains Friday
evening before drier and cooler weather takes hold for the weekend.
Lows temperatures Saturday morning will be in the upper 30s to lower
40s with daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Surface low
pressure transiting north of the Upper Great Lakes Saturday night
will drag a generally dry reinforcing cool front through the
region.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...
Cool and dry conditions linger Sunday as much drier air behind the
cool front filters into the region. Persistent, cold northwesterly
flow over the Upper Great Lakes with H850 temps of around -18C
should yield a decent moisture flux off the water surface where
temperatures have risen to the mid 40s. Steep low level lapse rates
overhead, coupled with wet bulb zero values below the freezing mark
should yield some decent snow showers/squalls during the day Monday.
With air temperatures generally above freezing, soil temperatures
well above freezing and increasingly hostile to snow Sun angles,
would not expect any impactful snow accumulations, especially with
warm air above the cold dome constraining parcels to generally
beneath the dendritic growth layer. Localized visibility impacts in
heavy snow showers would be possible.
Weakening northwesterly flow coupled with the loss of surface
heating should see showers dissipating Monday evening with clearing
skies. With the aforementioned dry air in place and slackening
gradients, will likely see a hard freeze area wide Tuesday morning
which could be detrimental to any early vegetation that has emerged
in recent warmth.
Models solutions differ in the handling a clipper system passing
through the region on Tuesday night, this could yield some
additional light rain or snow showers, confidence is low given
expected rather dry low levels.
For the remainder of the week the region largely remains in the
baroclinic battleground between arctic high pressure and much warmer
to the south. With the lack of appreciable moisture, the temperature
forecast will be the primary conundrum.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 810 PM Thursday...
VFR conditions persist early tonight, with gradually worsening
flight conditions throughout the night as showers and thunderstorms
move in from the northwest. MVFR CIGs and IFR/MVFR VSBY
restrictions are expected as precipitation overspreads the area.
Some storms across the Mid-Ohio Valley will likely have gusty
winds, heavy rain, and potentially even hail with them.
MVFR CIGs linger area-wide on Friday, with even IFR possible at
times. Isolated to scattered rain showers persist throughout
the day, with MVFR VSBY likely in any heavier rainfall. Rain
gradually dissipates from northwest to southeast through the day.
Southwest flow persists throughout tonight and could be gusty
at times, particularly with any thunderstorms. A strengthening
low-level jet could result in low-level wind shear overnight,
with this coded into a few of the TAFs. Surface flow veers to
northwest throughout Friday following the passage of a cold front.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms tonight
could vary. Timing of reduced ceilings along/behind the front on
Friday may vary from the forecast. MVFR VSBY restrictions are
possible within heavier showers on Friday.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/15/24
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible Friday night with low stratus in/near the mountains.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK/JP/GW
NEAR TERM...FK/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GW