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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 161809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
209 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
STATIONARY FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH. NEW FRONT APPROACHES NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COVERAGE INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE LAST HOUR
OR SO AND NOW HAS THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN ITS SIGHT. CONVECTION WILL
WANE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL NOT NECESSARILY CEASE COMPLETELY
OVERNIGHT...WARRANTING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LATE FOG IF THE SKY CLEARS OVER SATURATED
GROUND.

NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN STELLAR IN DEFINING THE
PROPER LOCATION OF FORCING...AS RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE CURRENT
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LARGELY SOUTH OF THEIR PROGGED AREAS.
NAM IS NOT TOO BAD AND NEITHER IS THE RAP...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE
SOLUTIONS DESCEND INTO CHAOS EVEN A FEW HOURS BEYOND THE 18Z
FORECAST GIVING LITTLE CONFIDENCE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PROGS. IT
MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE THE TIMING OF THE MODELS IS JUST OFF BY
3 HOURS OR SO.

AGAIN...DO FEEL THE CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY DIURNALLY FORCED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...DO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE TONIGHT.

DO NOT SEE A LOT OF PROGRESS TO BE MADE WITH THE FRONT INTO
FRIDAY...AND WILL STILL BE OSCILLATING LIKELY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

WILL NEED TO WATCH TRAINING AREAS OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SO FAR...RAIN GAGE AMOUNTS ARE MODEST IN TERMS OF
MEASURED PRECIPITATION. ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN ZONES IS ON THE
DRIER SIDE TO BEGIN WITH...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING WORDING IN
THE HWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. WITH LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE DIRTY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOME FORM OF EMBEDDED WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE UPPER RIDGE....SOME
INSTABILITY...AND MODEST QPF. UNCERTAINTY EXIST AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SPREAD THIS WEEKEND...SOME KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERS SINKING IT SOUTH INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES.

INCREASED POPS TO 52 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH PCPN FOCUSING ALONG AND NEAR THE QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL...WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

KEPT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY REPRESENTATIVE...GENERALLY
IN LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE AID OF HEATING. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE MODEL TRENDS OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOMING THE EASTERN ANCHOR OF
AN OMEGA BLOCK...WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AND HAVE THE BEST
POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASING AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING
FOR A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST. ATTEMPTED TO KEEP THE TAFS AS
SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE...WITH MINIMAL TEMPOS...BUT DO EXPECT RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS AT PLACES LIKE CRW AND HTS. REMOVED SOME OF
THE IMMEDIATE TERM THUNDER THREATS OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT
PKB/CKB/EKN...AND CARRY SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THUNDER EXPECTED AT BKW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY CEASE
OVERNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR...BUT
DESCENDING INTO MVFR/IFR AS MIST AND FOG COULD SETTLE IN
LATE...AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE ABILITY OF THE SKY
TO CLEAR SOME WITH THE WET SURFACE IN PLACE.

ROUNDS OF CONVECTION RETURNS WITH HEATING FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT HAVE BRIEF IFR COVERED ENOUGH IN
TAFS. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26