-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
682
FXUS61 KRLX 301337
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
937 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today into
tonight. High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend
Wednesday into Friday. Warm and unsettled this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 940 AM Tuesday...

Updated POPS with the latest meso models to better represent
timing of precipitation and thunderstorms today.


As of 640 AM Tuesday...

Updated PoPs to get the best timing for precipitation onset
today. Thunderstorm activity seems to be a lesser threat today
with better chances across SE Ohio, NE Kentucky and along the
Ohio River later this morning. WPC has backed off on the
excessive rainfall risk for our area today as PWATs and QPF are
trending downward as well.

As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Slow moving, weak cold front to our west will gradually inch
closer this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of
the front will affect the area today as the front knocks on the
door. Not expecting severe weather with this system but heavy
downpours are possible today with PWATs between 1.00" and 1.30".
WPC subsequently has the area outlooked in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall. After the recent dry spell though most of
the rain will be needed and only expecting localized water
issues for locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rain.

High temperatures are trending downward due to increased
cloud cover and moisture today. Going to see quite a cool down
today with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area.
Models are showing weak lapse rates, LI, MUCAPE and
SBCAPE due to the weaker nature of this front. However, there
looks enough 0-3km instability to manifest some isolated
thunderstorms or rumbles of thunder within some heavier showers
this afternoon.

The front briefly stalls this evening, bisecting the forecast area,
before lifting north as a warm front overnight into Wednesday
morning. Showers will taper off early this evening as a result,
becoming more centralized along the mountains overnight before
pushing out early Wednesday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

High pressure brings dry weather Wednesday through Thursday
night. Dead low level flow in the wake of the wet weather in
the near term may result in areas of fog and stratus Wednesday
morning, especially east of the Ohio River. However, the
incoming air mass is quite dry from just above the surface on
up, so any morning clouds and fog will burn off, giving way to
sunshine for the balance of the day.

A weakening cold front approaches the middle Ohio Valley from
the northwest Wednesday night, but its associated mid-upper
level short wave trough passes north of the area as mid-upper
level ridging builds over the area. Nothing more than a few
clouds are forecast for portions of southeast Ohio Wednesday
night, and weak high pressure reestablishes for Thursday.

The high drifts east of the area Thursday night, giving way to
light southerly low level flow, but mid- upper level ridging
maintains dry weather.

Central guidance reflects temperatures remaining above normal
Wednesday, and then a return to very warm weather on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

To describe the weather heading into the weekend as being
affected by a cold front moving into the area is at odds with
the overall zeitgeist of the weather pattern heading into the
long term, in which we are moving into a warm and humid regime
as we move into the month of May.

The cold front does bring an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday, with some diurnal
weakening overnight Friday night, but it washes out on
Saturday, as its associated mid-upper level short wave trough
dampens and lifts out to the northeast, and mid-upper level
ridging rebuilds over the area.

The air mass behind the cold front never really makes inroads
into the forecast area. Rather, warm and somewhat humid air
remains in place, and with weak mid-upper level ripples moving
through, the chance for showers, highest in the afternoon and
evening, when thunderstorms are also possible, continues into
next week.

Showers and thunderstorms not arriving or forming into Friday
afternoon allows morning heating and a very warm day until
interrupted by rain. High temperatures are suppressed a bit
Saturday by the high chance for rain, and to a lesser extent
beyond that, but remain modestly above normal. Lows also remain
above normal, as we settle into lower 60s to lower 80s for
diurnal ranges across the lowlands, and lower 50s to mid 60s
over the higher ridges, early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Tuesday...

CIGs gradually lowering this morning as showers filter in from
the west our due to a cold front located across IN/OH. CIGs
look to remain mostly low-end VFR with pockets of MVFR through
the day. MVFR will be more prominent early this afternoon as
more widespread shower activity moves across.

There does remain the chance for some isolated thunderstorms
this morning/early afternoon due to instability from heating,
so left VCTS in at most sites to cover the possibility; more
certainty for thunderstorms remains in the afternoon hours,
especially for western most sites of HTS and PKB where more lift
will be from the front.

Will start to see showers and thunderstorms tapering off from
west to east by ~00Z, but chances will remain in the mountains
overnight. MVFR or IFR CIG restrictions will likely remain
across this area as well. Widespread dense fog will be a strong
possibility at most sites tonight into Wednesday with recent
rainfall across the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Shower and thunderstorm timing and location
may vary from forecast. CIGs may be lower than forecast today.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to dense fog Wednesday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY/LTC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC