Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190311 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1111 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow flurries end in the lower elevations overnight but mountain snow showers continue until daybreak. Dry and breezy Tuesday with increased risk of wildfire spread. Mainly dry into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1110 PM Monday... Light snow showers/flurries were slowly waning. BKW received close to an inch with a couple of bursts of 1/4SM +SN. Other snowfall amounts include close to an inch at Snowshoe, and a trace near Marlinton and Oak Hill. Still expect one last uptick in upslope snow along the northern mountains overnight as flow aligns in the vertical a little better. As of 805 PM Monday... Scattered snow showers were most stout over southern WV, and will continue moving on through and out of the area with the short wave trough axis and last of the cold advection tonight. Lighter snow showers and flurries elsewhere will dissipate tonight, except along the northern mountains, where upslope flow could keep snow showers going much of the night. Temperatures and dew points were largely on track this evening, but did lower dew points and, correspondingly, RH values a bit for Tuesday afternoon. The wind forecast looked good with gusty winds much of the time through Tuesday, and beyond, as high pressure passing well south of the area allows gradient flow to continue. As of 120 PM Monday... Cold air crossing the Upper Great Lakes is yielding enhanced low level moisture across the region today. The surface layer remains quite dry in the lowlands making it a tough journey to the surface for any snowflakes falling out of the clouds based around 3000 to 4000 ft, but spotty flurries/snow showers remain possible through early this evening with little to no accumulation expected. In the mountains, upslope enhancement will yield a little better chance of some light accumulating snow, but the combination of warm ground temperatures, a fairly shallow dendritic growth layer and turbulent boundary layer flow should limit any accumulations to an inch or two. As skies clear overnight and winds lighten somewhat, will see temperatures dipping into the upper 20s across most of the lower elevations. While the growing season has not yet been declared open, those with sensitive vegetation that has emerged early are urged to take protective actions from the cold. Winds shift more westerly overnight tonight in response to surface low pressure approaching the Upper Great Lakes while surface high pressure settles into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Channeled flow between these features will yield breezy conditions Tuesday with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 20 to 30 mph. Coincident with these gusty winds, we will be mixing into some very dry air aloft yielding relative humidity values dipping into the mid 20s by Tuesday afternoon. While the greenup is underway, dead fuels remain quite dry and prone to carrying fire. In coordination with land management agencies and our neighboring offices, will issue a fire danger statement with afternoon to hopefully limit overnight burning and any holdover risk heading into Tuesday. As a reminder, fire season laws are in effect with open burning restricted to varying degrees during the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday... Mainly dry conditions will persist through the short term period as a broad, low amplitude upper trough continues to persist across the eastern CONUS. A weak cold front will slide through on Wednesday, bringing the chance for isolated rain or snow showers across the mountains. Otherwise, dry weather is progged for the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the region, with fire weather concerns being the main headline. Given dry air aloft and daytime mixing, did lower dew points to the 10th percentile on Wednesday/Thursday afternoons, resulting in minimum RH values in the 20s both days across some or most of the forecast area. Wednesday is likely the most concerning day, with wind gusts of 20-30 mph (if not higher) progged for much of the area. Surface flow will be much lighter on Thursday. High temperatures will be near normal on Wednesday, while ~ 10 degrees below normal on Thursday, amid plenty of sunshine both days. Did trim overnight lows each night a bit from central guidance given dry air aloft mixing down to the surface each afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... The extended portion of the forecast looks a bit more active as a disturbance crosses the region Friday into Saturday, with another disturbance approaching the region on Monday. Precipitation Friday into Saturday generally looks to be on the lighter side and in the form of mainly rain, but could be a bit heavier if northern/southern stream phase early enough as some guidance shows. Regardless, a much needed wetting rain is possible, with dry conditions returning late Saturday into Monday in advance of the next system to the west. Near seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday amid a slow warming trend. Monday is progged to be ~ 10 degrees above normal as warm advection ahead of low pressure begins in ernest across the area. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Monday... Scattered showers will produce brief IFR restrictions south and brief MVFR restrictions north through about 03Z, before dissipating. Snow showers will persist longer in the EKN area, perhaps even much of the night. MVFR ceilings are likely to become predominate even outside snow showers at EKN and BKW overnight, and continue into Tuesday morning. Stratocumulus will lift and break up from south to north the rest of Tuesday morning. West to northwest surface flow will be gusty at times, settling down across the lowlands overnight, before becoming stronger throughout the area on Tuesday. West to southwest surface flow Tuesday afternoon will gust into the 20 to 25 kt range across the south, and 25 to 30 kt range across the north, and in the mountains. Moderate west to northwest flow aloft tonight into Tuesday morning will become moderate west to southwest for Tuesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF amendments may still be needed tonight for MVFR or even IFR conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites. Timing of MVFR stratocumulus in the mountains outside snow showers overnight into Tuesday morning may vary, EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/19/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/GW NEAR TERM...TRM/JP SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...TRM

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