Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OSCILLATING SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL. MUCH COLDER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS CWA...AS OF 05Z IT WAS MOVING
INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS WILL BE
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE FIRST TIER OF WESTERN WV COUNTIES ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BY SUNRISE.
OVERALL GOAL FOR THIS FORECAST WAS TO TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT.
GRANTED THAT IS A LITTLE TOUGH WITH A SLOWLY OSCILLATING SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
CWA...AND MAY EVEN COME BACK INTO OUR NORTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AS
A SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR WEST. DRIED OUT POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. DO HAVE SOME THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...BUT
WITH NO REAL SURFACE FOCUS BY THIS AFTERNOON IT COULD BE HARD TO GET
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO.

THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS RELOADING LATER TODAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HARD TO SAY IF THIS WILL TRULY
BE CONNECTED TO ANY REMAINING BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA...BUT AS THE LOW
MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER...HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH ACROSS
CWA. REALLY THINKING THIS IS MORE THE NOSE OF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW THAN A TRUE WARM FRONT. REGARDLESS...DO HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF
POPS DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ENCROACHING INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY 12Z AS THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO.

HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPS THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS
UP. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE TO OHIO BY 12Z THURSDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS PA...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED EASTWARD.  CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT WILL
BE WEST OF OUR AREA AT 12Z...ALONG A CKB TO CRW TO JKL LINE AT
18Z...AND THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 21Z.

HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.  THE INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET AND
EXPECT ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

EVEN AS FRONT PUSHES EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.  THE TROF SHOULD PUSH EAST LATER FRIDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MID MINUS TEENS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH TROUGH ALOFT CUTS IN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND
BELOW...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEARER SKIES AND
POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY OUT OF THE COLDER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK AND APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS CWA...BUT EXPECTING THINGS TO
REMAIN VFR WITH THIS. COULD SEE A SOME LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER WINDS
ALSO PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN OR FOG. SE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN SLOPES BY EARLY MORNING...ALSO HAVE
THIS INTO BKW THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...HAVE ATLEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
COULD EVEN HAVE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
ENOUGH PROBABILITIES TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. SHOULD A HEAVIER
SHOWER/TSTORM CROSS A TERMINAL...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 03/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










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