Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 042007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING THRU SE WV AS OF 18Z...WITH A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR SHRA. IN ITS WAKE ARE SOME MAINLY BKN LOW END VFR CU
WHICH WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS WORKING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...ROLLED WITH IFR OR
WORSE FOG FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST. ANY FOG WILL SCT OUT SUNDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO THE
MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN SW VA AND SE WV BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS
IS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.