Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP.
FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL


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