Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 160035
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
835 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses through this evening. Much cooler tonight
into Tuesday. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the
middle and latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 825 PM Sunday...Updated PoP again with showers coming
across the area to reflect current radar and meso model trends.
Also, took any mention of thunder out of the forecast with the
sun going down the instability will be too weak.

As of 350 PM Sunday...Just made a quick adjustment to get PoP
more aligned with current Radar as cold front enters the Ohio
Valley.


As of 215 PM Sunday...

Cold front traverses forecast area this evening with line of
convective showers. These convective showers should start to
become more active through the late afternoon and early evening
from modest daytime heating taking place so late in this
season. CAPE profiles, flow aloft, and sfc gradients point to a
potential for about 30 to 35 kt max gust potential as the front
moves through, reaching the eastern mountains late this evening.
Cold air advection along with upslope flow should lead to some
post frontal clouds remaining in place with areas of fog in
valleys that have decoupled boundary layers. Temperatures will
be noticeably cooler to start the work week as cold air
advection continues for Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

Much cooler and very dry high pressure will will settle over the
area Monday night, with clear skies and calm winds to help drop
temperatures even more. Thus, much of the northern mountains
will be prone to a freeze Monday night, while the remainder of
the area will be prone to frost. This will be highlighted in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Thereafter, high pressure
continues with a warming trend into mid week under lots of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

Typical pattern for autumn with dry west to northwest flow
pattern aloft and extensive high pressure below. Thus, this
period will continue to be dry with plenty of sunshine, leading
to a continued warming trend, with afternoon highs above normal
for the later half of the week. Nights will still be cool under
good radiational cooling, leading to a wide range in diurnal
temperatures this period. Relative humidities in the afternoons
will trend lower, but the good news is, winds should remain
relatively light, thereby negating the fire weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM Sunday...

A strong cold front is pushing through the region this evening.
There is a line of heavy showers and gusty winds along the
front and some locations could briefly drop to IFR for low
visibility in the heavy rain. Most confident in this at CRW and
CKB where the showers will arrive shortly. The front is already
through HTS and PKB, where HTS briefly dropped for half an hour
to IFR with the rain. Behind the front ceilings will likely dip
to MVFR with residual stratocu, especially along the mountains
and where IFR ceilings could develop later tonight, but not
enough confidence to place in 00Z TAFs.

VFR will return everywhere tomorrow morning as high pressure
builds into the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Sites could drop to IFR in showers or may
stay at MVFR. Possible IFR ceilings in mountains through early
Monday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 10/16/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Dense overnight and morning valley fog this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MPK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.