Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 190537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL
SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY










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