Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 280525
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. COLD FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH
FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO
PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME THICKER
CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE WORK WEEK.
WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A
SMALL DIFFERENCE MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST. WILL RUN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR NOW. WITH GFS MOS IN THE MID CHANCE
CATEGORY EVEN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LIKELY
POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/AND ECENS MEAN.
THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AND/OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. BASED FOG THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HEAVILY ON WHAT
HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE 13Z-14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT. WILL START TO SEE MORE HIGH...AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JMV/JW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ







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