Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 160539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER PER LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RULES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS DO HAVE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT ONLY SOME
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING SOME. FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR FRONTAL
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGES...AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST.

RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS AT 2K FEET.
THESE WINDS...TOGETHER WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT DENSE
FOG FORMATION AT MOST PLACES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT MVFR AT EKN AND OTHER PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. MVFR/IFR LOW
STRATUS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY
TUESDAY PER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO
KEEP THEM OUT OF TAF PER LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL SLOW DOWN WIND FLOW
AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEAK.
WITH WEAKER TO CALM FLOW AT NIGHT...AND FEW CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS AS
COOLER BUT WEAK FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS MAY VARY AT ONSET LATE OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/16/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    L    M    H    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ







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