Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
319
FXUS61 KRLX 240745
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
345 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week
progresses. Cold front approaches later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday...

After a brief respite from the heat and humidity...models are
bringing more summer like conditions back. Today will be the
transition day as a weak warm front lifts northeastward across the
area. While deeper moisture will bring increased clouds
today...lack of dynamics and instability will limit precip
chances...as suggested by the models. So after some patchy early
morning river valley fog...will just go with increased clouds and
sprinkles as the weak front crosses the area today. While
temperatures will be warmer than yesterday under southerly
flow...clouds will temper highs to the mid and upper 80s. For
tonight...look for warm and humid conditions in the warm sector
with varying amounts of clouds...and lows near 70 with less fog
than this morning. Will bring a low chance of showers in the north
later tonight as models do show an upper disturbance affecting
this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday...

Hot and humid weather returns to the region in the short term
period...with upper ridging across the eastern U.S. Still looking at
a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday...particularly
across the north...as a disturbance moves through. Some storms could
contain rather gusty winds...mainly across the north...as winds
aloft strengthen to 30-40 kts. Greater risk for severe/strong storms
will lie just to the north of the cwa however.

Surface frontal boundary...associated with surface low moving east
across Canada...will sag south into the region later in the day
Friday. Still uncertainty with timing...and how far south frontal
boundary will trek...with the possibility that the front will stall
out or wash out across the CWA. There will be little forcing
associated with the front...and expecting mainly isolated showers
and thunderstorms...mainly during peak heating hours. Somewhat
drier/less humid air may filter in across the north for Saturday
behind the front...but looking like at least southern 2/3 of CWA
will continue to remain socked in with higher humidity.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Tuesday...

Stubborn high pressure continues through early next week though
decaying fronts do erode in the regions general vcnty. One thing
to keep an eye on is a developing tropical system that is
currently progged to move through the Gulf of Mexico during the
middle part of next week and may eventually provide a break to
our dry pattern. For now, have only slightly bumped PoPs in the
extended though with very little confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Wednesday...

06Z Wednesday through 06Z Thursday...

Cirrus overnight...will thicken and lower Wednesday...as an upper
disturbance with deeper moisture moves across the area. Cirrus
will be thin for most of night and...combined with calm
winds...allow for river valley fog to form. However...IFR fog will
mostly be limited to the more protected river valley areas...at
CRW and EKN...with MVFR fog elsewhere.

After 13z...With any fog having dissipated...becoming ceilings
6000-8000 feet with the batch of deep moisture associated with the
upper disturbance moving across the area from west to east. Not
enough dynamics to put more than low chance of measurable precip...so
will leave showers out of TAFS. Generally south winds 5 to 8 kts.

After 00z...clouds decreasing and lifting across the south and
central areas with departure of upper disturbance...but approach
of front from the north will keep vfr ceilings 6000-10000 feet up
north. Light to near calm winds tonight with even less fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 08/24/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the
weekend...depending on cloud cover.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...JMV



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.