Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 261837
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
237 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WEST VIRGINIA
TONIGHT. FRONT WASHES OUT IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.  HEAT BUILDS
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
GETS FRUSTRATING AT TIMES DURING THESE MID SUMMER DOG DAYS TO TRY TO BE
DETERMINISTIC. AT 17Z SUNDAY...THE FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH.
ANALYZING THE FRONT FROM NEAR YNG TO FDY TO FWA. HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT
INTO SE OHIO...BUT DEW POINTS STILL LOWER IN INTERIOR WV.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TOP OUT NEAR 90 IN MANY OF THE USUAL HOTS SPOTS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF WV.

WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCE POPS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WV THIS
AFTERNOON...WORKING INTO SW COUNTIES LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

WITH FRONT BECOMING SO DIFFUSE ON MONDAY...HARD TO PICTURE HOW CLOUDS WILL
REACT.  WILL TRY TO HAVE A LOT OF 2 TO 3 THSD FOOT CEILINGS 12Z TO 16Z BEFORE
TRYING TO LIFT.  WITH THAT THINKING...TRIED TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY
A BIT UNDER 12Z MOS GUIDANCE...MORE TOWARD OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ALSO...THINK HAZE MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY TOWARD
HTS-CRW VCNTY. 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THAT HAZE.

STILL HAVE THE CHANCE POPS MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY...BUT IF THE WEAK
DIFFUSE FRONT LEAVES GRADIENT FURTHER NORTH...MAY NEED SOME HIGHER POPS INTO THE
MID OHIO VALLEY VCNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL REMAIN OF THE WEAKENING...DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
POSSIBLY KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY THEN...ATTENTION IS TURNING TO STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREEING ON SPEEDING THIS FEATURE
UP...BUT LEERY TO GO TO FAST AS FRONTS TYPICALLY SLOW DOWN AS THE
APPROACH US AND MODELS OFTEN ARE A BIT TOO FAST. SO DID SPEED UP
PREVIOUS FORECAST SOME...BUT NOT AS FAST AS CURRENT MODEL SUITE
WOULD SUGGEST. HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER PRE-DAWN
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AS WELL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

BUMPED UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS A BIT...WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOW HAVE LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR ITSELF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLUTION
AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT
CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FRONT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETS FRUSTRATING AT TIMES DURING THESE MID SUMMER DOG DAYS TO TRY TO BE
DETERMINISTIC. AT 17Z SUNDAY...THE FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH.
ANALYZING THE FRONT FROM NEAR YNG TO FDY TO FWA. HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT
INTO SE OHIO...BUT DEW POINTS STILL LOWER IN INTERIOR WV.  MINIMUM OF CU
IN THS HTS TO BKW CORRIDOR AT 17Z..WITH STORM DEVELOP IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN SE OHIO
ACROSS PKB-CKB CORRIDOR. HAD TO GO WITH VCNTY ON THE 18Z TAFS FOR CKB AND PKB...
AND ADJUST WITH RADAR TRENDS.  A STORM OR SHOWER MAY REACH FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
HTS-CRW AFTER 22Z...DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

DID NOT HIT FOG HARD OVERNIGHT...FIGURING ON LAYERS OR PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.  ELKINS STILL VULNERABLE IF CLOUDS BREAK.

WITH FRONT BECOMING SO DIFFUSE ON MONDAY...HARD TO PICTURE HOW CLOUDS WILL
REACT.  WILL TRY TO HAVE A LOT OF MVFR CEILINGS 09Z TO 15Z MONDAY...2 TO 3 THSD
FOOT CEILINGS BEFORE TRYING TO LIFT...COULD EVEN BE A SHOWER STILL AROUND MONDAY
MORNING.

STILL HAVE THE CHANCE POPS MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY...BUT IF THE WEAK
DIFFUSE FRONT LEAVES GRADIENT FURTHER NORTH...MAY NEED SOME HIGHER POPS INTO THE
MID OHIO VALLEY VCNTY TOWARD PKB TAF SITE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 20Z TODAY TO 03Z
MONDAY COULD BE GREATER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. FOG DURING THE
06Z TO 12Z MONDAY TIME FRAME MAY BE THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN
FORECAST IF CLOUDS DO NOT LINGER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/DTC
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...KTB


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