Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250236
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After another warm, muggy night, and another hot, humid day on
Monday, a weak cold front drops through Monday night lingering
into Tuesday. Another system is slated for late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
Removed PoPs for the rest of tonight, but still allow a slight
chance north toward dawn Monday, in the very warm and humid night
air.

815 PM UPDATE...
Heat advisory for today expired, but for Monday continued for all
but the far northern tier lowland counties.

The slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm is left in for the
overnight, mainly across northern portions of the area.

515 PM UPDATE...
In coordination with ILN, have issued heat advisory for Monday
afternoon for a similar area as today, except with the northern
tier trimmed on account of the approaching cold front.

Previous discussion...
High pressure bringing oppressive dew points to the area with
temps in the 90s making for heat indices hovering around 100.
Abundant moisture and instability may kick off an isolated shower
this afternoon, but lack of forcing mechanisms and dynamics should
quell anything significant relegating everything to garden variety
modes. Radar indicates a few of these pinhole cells are already
popping up here and there.

A front to our north should slide close to our area by Monday
morning increasing clouds and giving a slight chance for some
PoPs and some relief from the heat and humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The front and associated upper level wave will slowly sag into the
area Monday night with a good chance for shra/tsra. High pwats and
relatively weak flow spells torrential downpours as the main
hazard. This system still looks to meander about southern sections
on Tuesday and the overall flow becomes more zonal and remains
weak. So have the best chances for shra/tsra across S zones
Tuesday with drier air taking hold across SE OH/N WV. A slight
nudge further S on Wednesday but still sct mainly diurnally driven
shra/tsra generally S of I64 corridor. The heat wave will give way
to temps more close to normal for this time of year...but still a
bit toasty.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This front dissolves later on Thursday as the next s/w trof and
surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage
by Friday. An amplifying upper level trof will settle in for the
weekend with a cooler airmass taking hold.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After a VFR start, valley fog is again likely to form overnight,
and may become dense. However, since none of the TAF sites
received rain this past afternoon, did not take any all the way
down to VLIFR.

Once the fog burns off Monday morning, expect another VFR day
with cu forming midday and afternoon. However, a weak cold front
sinking southeastward toward the area will increase the chance
for showers and thunderstorms late in the day across the middle
Ohio Valley and northern WV.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast.
VLIFR (1/4SM OVC001) is still possible toward dawn Monday. Fog may
lift into MVFR stratocu or MVFR stratocu may form briefly mid or
late Monday morning. A shower or thunderstorm may directly impact
a TAF site Monday afternoon with brief IFR conditions.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 07/25/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms early Monday night. Early morning
IFR fog possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for WVZ005>009-
     013>019-024>029.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ075-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/JW
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



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