Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 151948
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upslope tonight. High pressure Saturday. A weak system
brings some light rain Sunday afternoon and night. Another
clipper crosses Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM Friday...

Some cold air advection behind an upper level wave will allow
for some weak upslope this evening in the northern WV mountains.
Moisture may become deep enough for some light snow showers. Due
to the limited moisture and weak nature of the upslope, think
any accumulations would remain less than in inch.

Temperatures tonight are once again rather tricky due to the
combination of some wind, a stratus deck that will be
dissipating, and some warm advection clouds.

Warm air advection sets in later tonight with high pressure
building over the area on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Friday...

A notable warming trend this weekend as the mean longwave trof
that has been parked across the eastern CONUS is replaces by
quasi zonal flow with embedded s/w ridging. A dampening system
within this flow will cross late Sunday. Trend has been for much
less qpf with this system amid some very dry low levels. Pops
have been lowered as a result. There is some concern for a brief
light mix across the northern zones on the front end of this
but this looks like a minimal impact scenario at the moment.
Clouds will linger Monday with highs being tempered a bit as a
result.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

Generally quiet in the extended with a cold front slated for
Tuesday night. Moisture is lacking with this feature so only
slight chance pops which would take the form of rain, followed
by a brief chance for mountain snow showers late Tuesday night.
The quasi zonal flow continues across the eastern CONUS into
late week with mild conditions prevailing. This begins to change
Day 7 and beyond. A forecast challenge awaits heading into
Christmas amid significant ensemble spread with what may turn
out to be a noteworthy overrunning event, as we lie within the
battleground for cold air/warm supremacy.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

A weak wave is moving over the region. This wave is creating
a large hole in the VFR/MVFR stratus deck. The stratus deck
will gradually raise some this afternoon with the hole
propagating with the upper level wave. Some cold air advection
behind the wave will allow for some weak upslope this evening in
the northern WV mountains. This will allow the stratus deck to
solidify on the western slopes of the mountains and lower some
this evening. Later tonight, the stratus deck will gradually
dissipate as warm air advection sets in. After the stratus deck
dissipates, VFR conditions can be expected for Saturday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow showers could cause restrictions in
northeastern WV this evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    M    L    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday
night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY


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