Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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598
FXUS61 KRLX 210746
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
246 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm through the weekend. Upper trough Sunday.
Stronger upper low Sunday night and Monday, exiting Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 730 PM Friday...

With only thin cirrus and light winds, have lowered overnight low
temperatures in many areas.


As of 610 PM Friday...

Cumulus clouds have quickly dissipated this evening and cirrus have
yet to become very thick. Therefore, lowered sky cover this evening.


As of 215 PM Friday...

Warm air has surged into the region behind a warm front that
passed earlier today. Temperatures have already reached the low
60s across the Southern half of the forecast area. Although it
remains mostly cloudy this afternoon, there are some breaks in
the clouds and areas that see any persistent sunshine could
climb into the upper 60s.

Forecast soundings indicate enough low level moisture lingers
tonight for mostly cloudy skies to persist. This will also keep
us quite mild overnight with lows generally in the low 50s to
upper 40s. With the saturated ground, it is possible that we see
some fog develop by early Saturday morning, but this will depend
on cloud cover.

Tomorrow will be another very warm January day as warm air
advection continues. Weak overrunning starts again in the afternoon.
Right now the current thinking is that precipitation will
likely hold off until after 00Z, but have added some slight
chance to low chance PoP across the Southern forecast area
tomorrow evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Looking at a significant, long duration rain maker through the
short term with a deepening upper level low rotating
northeastward from the deep south. Two distinct waves of energy
will bring the rain. The first is an upper level trough oriented
west to east, moving northward, and the second is the parent
low. NAM showing strong low level frontogenesis Sunday night,
and good upper level support in the form of Q vector convergence
over the northeastern CWA. Right now, will handle the potential
for flooding in the HWO, but high QPF amounts over the short
term with good basin coverage could be problematic.

All of this will occur in the warm sector of the surface frontal
system associated with the upper low, so there is need to
determine the efficacy of the dynamic cooling in terms of snow
potential. Core of the upper low will need to be in close
proximity to the CWA for snow to occur, which will primarily be
in the highest elevations. Rain otherwise.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

System exits, pulling a colder airmass into the area, but only
chances for snow will remain in the mountains. A brief recovery
to the temperatures back above normal comes Wednesday, with the
next cold front not far behind, and a wholesale airmass change
heading for the end of the week and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z Saturday thru 06Z Sunday...
As of 105 AM Saturday...

A deep moist southerly flow will prevail this period with
abundant clouds. An upper disturbance will pass mostly south
and east of the area this afternoon and evening, with another
upper disturbance approaching from the southwest by Sunday
morning.

Clouds across the north at 06Z are thin enough with near calm
winds and wet ground to bring IFR river valley fog, affecting
PKB, CKB ,EKN, with IFR fog possible later at CRW. Otherwise,
ceilings overnight will be VFR ranging from 5000 to 250000
feet. The fog will tend to lessen toward dawn as boundary layer
winds bring to stir. VFR ceilings around 4000 feet will be the
rule by 16Z, with widely scattered VFR showers mainly over the
southern mountains this afternoon and evening with the first
upper disturbance. After 00Z ceilings mainly aoa 7000 feet with
possible IFR fog at EKN by 08Z. Otherwise, expect scattered
showers into the southern coal fields by 12Z Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium with fog overnight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of river valley fog
overnight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 01/21/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    L

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday with another
system.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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