Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 181837
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
237 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper trough Saturday brings more showers to northern areas.
High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front possible mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 235 PM Friday...

Showers are coming to end this afternoon with clearing from west
to east as cold front pushes through the region. Showers will
likely linger in the mountains through early this evening and
can`t rule at an isolated thunderstorms in the mountains as
well. Clearing skies tonight and this combined with the moist
ground will produce dense fog across the river valleys after
Midnight and into early Saturday morning. An upper level trough
will graze the Northern Half of the forecast area tomorrow and
have increased PoPs from late Saturday Morning through tomorrow
evening when the trough lifts to the Northeast. Not expecting
much in the way of precip with most of the abundant moisture
exiting the area today with the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Upper level trough brings another batch of showers/storms
through primarily the northern half of the forecast area
Saturday before the long wave pattern goes back to ridge
dominant over the southeastern US. This ridge will bring higher
heights over the region, with temperatures back into the upper
80s to lower 90s for the lowlands through the weekend and into
the beginning of next week. Expecting mainly dry weather after
Saturday

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Long term operational models showing some consistency in the
development of a closed low over the Canadian prairies that will
drop into the Great Lakes for the middle of next week.
Associated cold front will bring the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians back into a cooler and drier airmass in a more
amplified ridge/trough pattern from west to east across the
CONUS. CPC outlook is supportive of the operational model
solutions as of this point with chances for below normal temps
embedded in the northeast quadrant of the lower 48.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

Cold front is almost through the region and will cross the
mountains later this afternoon. Still a chance for brief IFR
conditions in showers at BKW and EKN, but stations to the west
should continue to improve with the exiting. High pressure
builds in tonight with clearing skies. However, the moist ground
and mostly clear skies setting in tonight will likely produce
thick river valley fog from about Midnight through Saturday
morning. Conditions will improve tomorrow with VFR conditions
expected after the fog lifts at around 13 or 14Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers at BKW and
EKN this afternoon may vary and development of fog tonight may
differ than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Dense river valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK


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