Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 241407
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1005 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES FOR
EARLY WEEK. FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS
DOWN INTO REGION WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS THIS MORNING FROM AREA THAT
DO NOT RECEIVE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE. WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREA...AND DECREASE CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SURFACE HIGH
GRADUALLY DRIFTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AT
500MB. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS...BLENDED IN MET FOR
MONDAYS HIGH...THEN USED A BIAS CORRECT CONSENSUS BLEND MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE HANGS ON MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...PERHAPS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING BY SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO ENCROACH NW
ZONES. THUS HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR THERE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLE TEMPS...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WE THOUGHT BACK AT 06Z...THE FOG COVERAGE WAS TRICKING OVERNIGHT
AS THE E FLOW WAS INCREASING.  GIVING UP ON THAT FOG NOW FOR THE CKB
AND EKN VCNTY DUE TO PATCHES OF CLOUDS.

WHAT FOG AND STRATUS IS OUT THERE AT 12Z...HAVE THE AFTER DAWN
STRATUS BREAKING UP FASTER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...FIGURING A BIT
MORE FLOW AT 925 MB WILL HELP.

THE SE FLOW ALSO HAS BKW CEILING HAS FORMED THOSE CEILINGS AROUND
1 THSD FT VCNTY BKW AND EASTERN SLOPES...WITH HIGHER RIDGES OBSCURED.
FIGURING THAT EASTERN SLOPE CEILING WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT THAN THE
WESTERN SLOPE STRATUS AND FOG.

MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL BY 16Z
THROUGH 21Z...EXCEPT 1 TO 2 THSD FT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN WV. ONLY HAVE 20 TO 30 POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO EARLY EVENING...SO NO MENTION OF PCPN IN
POINT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

HAVE PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMING AGAIN FOR EARLY MONDAY...BUT LATER
IN THE NIGHT...MOSTLY 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE/EXTENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
06Z TO 12Z MONDAY IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB










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