Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 221533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1021 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SYSTEM CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM
MOVES IN TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRINGS
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE. EXPANDED POPS WESTWARD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
STILL CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
MINIMAL ICE ACCUM EAST FACING SLOPES OF POCAHONTAS AND FAR EASTERN
RANDOLPH...ELSEWHERE IN MOUNTAINS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WILL
CONTINUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR POCAHONTAS...BUT NOT EXPANDING
IT FOR RANDOLPH DUE TO VERY SMALL AREA AND LESS POPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PESKY MOISTURE FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST AS WELL AS
WAA WILL COMBINE FOR LIGHT PRECIP MOVING UP THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...MAINLY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A
SUBTLE SHIFT E WITH W EXTENT OF LIGHT PRECIP TO WHERE MOST FALLS
OVER POCAHONTAS AND E RANDOLPH CO. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A BRIEF ONSET OF FZRA WITH PSBL SLEET...BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO LIQUID AND PULLING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLIGHT
DELAY IN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...THINK WINTRY PRECIP MAY WILL BE
BRIEF. LOOKING AT ABOUT 3 HR PERIOD BEGINNING LATE MORNING FOR
THOSE CO. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH AID OF DEVELOPING SE DOWN SLOPE FLOW. SOME PEAKS OF
SUN IS PSBL S OF I64 LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE SE FLOW INCREASES
TONIGHT AND WAA ALOFT CONTINUES...THINK THE RIDGES WILL SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS SHOULD HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES WITH
POCKETS OF DZ PSBL OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA
INCREASING ALONG AND W OF THE OH RIVER LATE TONIGHT FROM ADVANCING
WARM FRONT. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL REALIZED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWLANDS.

HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE FOR POCAHONTAS CO...ALTHOUGH WINDOW FOR
FZRA IS RATHER SHORT BUT A TRACE IS ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR THE HEADLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NAM IN CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE SREF...INDICATING IT IS AN OUTLIER. WILL
DISREGARD THE NAM.

OTHER MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND
STALLING ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THEN FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND MOVES NORTHWARD WEST OF
THE AREA...PUSHING A RAIN SHIELD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADJUST TIMING OF POPS SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ONLY HAVE -6
C 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NOT THE BEST FOR UPSLOPE.
STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED
HOWEVER...SO WILL LEAVE SOME POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT
AND CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS POINT...REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS HOWEVER ON THURSDAY ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY POST FRONTAL.

AREA DRIES OUT THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...CREATING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL USHER
IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. TRENDED TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE SE COAST WITH LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SLEET
AND/OR FZRA IS EXPECTED ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. ICE ACCUM MINIMAL.

LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO KBKW THIS EVENING FOR IFR CIGS. THINK KEKN WILL ESCAPE
NOT ONLY THE WINTRY PRECIP BUT POSSIBLY PRECIP ALL TOGETHER AND
REMAIN VFR. DO HAVE VCSH CODED UP. ELSEWHERE JUST SOME 4 TO 6 THSD
FT BASES EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY AMID DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

LOW CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ACCOMPANIED BY DRIZZLE
TONIGHT.

SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH KBKW GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU
THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IFR STRATUS DECK IN KBKW MAY VARY AND
MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NT INTO WED...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
WED NT...AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV/30










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