Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 180957
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND 14Z
AT MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL
FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST
WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA
AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12
MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS
POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR
NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD.

DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP
TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY.
THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF IFR LOW STRATUS AND RADIATION FOG WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z LIFTING TO A LOW CLOUD DECK UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND MOST PART OF TONIGHT.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATION FOG AND LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP A BIT LATER THAN COMPARED WITH
LAST NIGHT.

THE NAM MODEL SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING AROUND
18-21Z. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MID CLOUD
FORMATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO ANOTHER CLOUD VERSUS
FOG ISSUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. COULD NOT EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTH OR MOUNTAIN WITH
WEAKER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE TURNING OF SOUTHEAST FLOW
LATE THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 09/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ







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