Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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850
FXUS61 KRLX 161347
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
947 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled
pattern returns to end the week with another cold front.
Generally drier afterwards until Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Wednesday...Forecast remains on-track and no
changes needed at this time.

As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Despite some clouds drifting through, still getting river vally
fog across the forecast area. Expect this to dissipate shortly
after sunrise.

Can pick out a weak MCV moving through central TN/KY on radar
and satellite. Models show this brushing by to the south this
morning, so have isolated to scattered showers and storms --
mainly in SW VA. Models also show a weak vort lobe moving by
just to the north...so added some isolated showers and storms
across extreme NW forecast area this afternoon as well. A warm
front lifts through tonight, with POPs on the increase through
the night.

With a lot of clouds tonight, generally raised low temperatures
a degree or two across the board. Only minimal change made to
highs for this afternoon -- tweaked up a bit across central
forecast area, and down a bit north and south were
clouds/showers are will be more prevalent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

A front will drive a juicy air mass through the region Thursday
evening with PWATs in excess of 2 inches. Latest model trends
keep most upper level energy to be north of the area which
lends a little more uncertainty to the potential for severe
weather and/or flash flooding due to lack of forcing in our CWA.
Will maintain extra awareness for this period to see if anything
changes. Showers linger Friday. By Saturday morning, weak high
pressure rebuilds for a drier day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

High pressure remains over the region through Monday. Zonal flow
in a weakly forced environment makes this period a low
confidence forecast for timing/precip intensity. A front is
supposed to cross Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Fog will dissipate 13Z- 15Z with VFR expected for the remainder
of the day. Could get isolated to scattered showers across the
far south and far north today, but should not cause any
restrictions at TAF sites. A warm front lifts through overnight
with increasing clouds and showers. With clouds and showers
around did not go with dense fog...but could still get some MVFR
in fog and/or showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipation may vary. May get
more fog tonight than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
weekend. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending
on clouds.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ



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