Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 072012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
PUSH EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES AND THE OHIO VALLEY RIVER COUNTIES OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH EAST. THEY ALSO HINT
THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND
WEAKEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.

SPC HAS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
BECAUSE MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...HAVE ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH REGION EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...DO
NOT SEE A REASON TO ISSUE ANY WATER RELATED PRODUCTS FOR NOW. BUT
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SET-UP...THERE COULD BE SOME WATER
ISSUES TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL INCREASE POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THAN THE NAM. SREF WOULD INDICATE THAT THE
NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER. THEREFORE...WILL LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR. GFS INDICATES THAT
AN IMPULSE COULD COMBINE WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE TO FIRE A COUPLE OF
STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE SMALL
POPS IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES THE AREA
UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS....SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SWITCHED TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS BRINGS A SYSTEM INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO.INDIANA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS WITH
MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO
COUNTIES BY 21Z...THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES BY 00Z AND THEN MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY 05Z. OUT SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RIVER FOG TUESDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS AND WELL
MIXED BL IN BREEZES WILL PRECLUDE FORMATION.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND RACE EAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THE STRONGEST STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THRU 18Z. HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AFT 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JSH










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