Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 010542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1010 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME UPDATES TO POPS...HAVE SOME CONVECTION
STILL GOING OUT TOWARD CVG...AND WHILE THINKING THIS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF CWA...DID HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS TRI-STATE A BIT
LONGER. ALSO ADDED BACK IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE CONVECTION
NEAR CMH. ANTICIPATE IT TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS VERY
NORTHERN CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE ACROSS OH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LAGGING BEHIND. NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH THE FIRST AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE
SLATED FOR AROUND 18Z ENTERING SE OH AND MAKING INROADS INTO C WV
BY 22Z AND SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z. INSTABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH OVERALL SHEAR WHICH REMAINS LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG
WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER TROF AXIS. SO...EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SVR
TO ROLL THRU SE OH LATER THIS AFTN...WEAKENING AFTER 00Z FOR E WV.
A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL...PWATS ARE MEAGER BUT THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TRAINING ACROSS SE OH FOR SOME ISOLATED ISSUES IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

AFTER CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...WILL BE WATCHING FOR
THE FRONT TO SAG IN. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH JUST ENOUGH BL PUFF
AN DRY AIR ADVECTING IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH IN ADDITION TO SOME FG. THIS STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT MID MORNING INTO CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES.
HAVE LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY TOMORROW SAVE FOR S ZONES AS MUCH
OF THE REGION IS DRY AIR CAPPED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SLOWLY SOUTH THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE JUICY...WITH MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND PWATS AROUND 1.9
INCHES. H500 CHARTS SHOW A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES PASSING BY.
EXPECT THESE SHORT WAVES TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST SUPPRESSING PCPN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
GENERALLY...LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST.

MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE
LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

ISOLD -SHRA REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN WV...CREATING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING
RATHER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. ANY FOG
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER 13-14Z...FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN...GENERALLY AFTER 18-21Z...AND
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA...ALTHOUGH ISOLD
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE
CONVECTION WILL BE KBKW...KCRW AND KHTS. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG OR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.