Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 121931
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers continue this evening in cold air advection.
Another system arrives by late week with another chance for snow
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Strong cold air advection behind a cold front will continue this
evening. This will combine with an upslope flow and a plume off
of Lake Michigan to provide some snow showers. With the arctic
air becoming drier as the night progresses, the snow showers
will become tighter against the mountains except in the lake
plume. This plume should gradually lift northward overnight.
Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the WV
mountains for snow.

The combination of winds and cold temperatures will push wind
chills in the higher elevations into the -10 to -20 F range. Will
continue the Wind Chill Advisory for these areas.

Warm air advection can be expected on Wednesday as a warm front
lifts northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure will move across the region just north of the CWA
Wednesday night with its trailing cold front passing early
Thursday morning. Temps will still be cold enough for snow as it
passes. More accumulations are possible in favorable upslope
areas into Thursday morning. As the front exits Thursday another
good shot of cold air will infiltrate the area.

Another clipper system will bring yet another round of snow and
snow showers to the area on Friday into Friday night.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 233 AM Tuesday...

High pressure will briefly be in control with a warm front posed
to our west and north on Saturday. This will keep the weather
dry with warmer temperatures expected. Low pressure is expected
to approach the area from the southwest on Sunday and then push
east Sunday night. Temperatures on a southwesterly flow should
be warm enough to bring rain to the lowlands and a rain to
rain/snow mix in the mountains.

Flow becomes more zonal for the beginning of the work week with
high pressure mainly in control. Seasonable temperatures for
this time of year area expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Snow showers can be expected this afternoon and evening,
producing IFR/LIFR conditions at times. As drier arctic air
moves into the area, predominate ceilings in the lowlands
outside of the Lake Michigan plume will become VFR. The lake
plume will continue to produce IFR conditions at times,
gradually shifting northward tonight. As warm air advection sets
in Wednesday morning, expect any remaining restrictions in the
northern WV mountains to end.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and associated
restrictions could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Another round of snow is expected Wednesday night and Thursday,
particularly across the north, with IFR conditions possible.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ516-
     518-520-522>526.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ518-520-
     522>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JB/RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...RPY



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