Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221815
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances drop southeast into Saturday. Front stalls in
Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest radar mosaic shows showers/storms were moving/developing
southeast across our southeast Ohio...Northeast Kentucky and along
the Ohio River in West Virginia. These storms appear to be the
result of an upper level disturbance which is moving toward the
area.

This feature is expected to generally remain west of our forecast
area. However... models suggest these storms could continue to
mainly impact our western counties into the late evening hours.

Precipitable water values top 2 inches along and west of the Ohio
River, indicating downpours are also possible in any
thunderstorms.

Did not make any major changes for the overnight period. While
most of the storms should dissipate before midnight...an isolated
storm or two could continue during the overnight hours.

Saturday could be the hottest day of the year so far. Latest temp
guidance is warmer than our previous forecast for highs and have
tweaked our MaxT grid up a degree or two. Felt our forecasted
dewpoint temps may have been a little high...so have tweaked them
down.

Current thinking is that heat indices will top out between 100 and
105 Saturday afternoon across our western counties. Only fly in the
ointment would be debris clouds from overnight that may act to keep
daytime temps down.

Am leaning towards issuing a Heat Advisory for portions of
southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky and the western counties of
West Virginia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The heat wave will continue this weekend with temperatures
reaching the lower 90s. Models show a dry column through the
period with some moisture at the mid levels and high sfc CAPE
values. Can no ruled out low chance for showers and storms by
Sunday afternoon.

A weak cold front becomes stationary in the vicinity to our
north. Convective complexes can develop under northwest flow.
Remnants of these complexes can dig southeast while diminishing in
intensity. This will bring debris clouds to the area. Despite the
clouds, temperatures will climb again Sunday mainly lowlands.
Moisture and hot temperatures can make heat index to climb into
the 100s this weekend.

Went with the superblend guidance for temperatures through the
period. Continued advertising possible heat advisories for the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It will turn more unsettled early next week with the arrival of a
frontal boundary coupled with a s/w trof passage. These features
will make a run toward the area later on Monday with convection
chances increasing thru the afternoon and especially into the
evening hours. The upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern
turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere.
This will keep the unsettled pattern going thru Tuesday as the the
front will be in no hurry to push through. With the light flow and
high pwats...some slow moving downpours are in the cards. The
front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level
drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances
confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture.

Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
Latest radar mosaic continues to indicate scattered showers and
storms with MVFR...local IFR...conditions were pushing across
southeast Ohio. Outside of the area...vfr conditions prevailed.

An upper level disturbance will push southeast into the nighttime
hours. As a result...the storms should continue to move/develop
southeast during the afternoon hours. The best chance will
be along and west of the Ohio River, and have continued VCTS on
the PKB and HTS TAFs into the evening hours.

Models still fairly insistent on fog formation tonight, but think
there will be enough remnant clouds around to allow for dense fog
formation. Have generally gone with 6sm br between 08Z and 12Z
everywhere...with some 3-5sm br in favored river valleys...at
places like CRW/EKN.

VFR conditions are expected after 13Z...with isolated storms
possible after 15Z.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to expand VCTS this afternoon and
evening. Dense river valley fog may form tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH



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