Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 190551
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
151 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low drops southeast to the mid Atlantic coast early
this morning. High pressure crosses tonight. A system crosses
late Monday through Tuesday. High pressure mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 150 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track.

As of 1010 PM Saturday...

Rain changing over to snow in the mountains...on track with
previous forecast. Updated temps with current obs and trends but
no other changes made.

As of 220 PM Saturday...

Cold pool convection showers and storms are easily churning out
consistent one half inch hail as the cold front digs into the
mountains, aided by fairly efficient heating that got
temperatures into the mid 50s. Cold air advection aloft is not
far behind, as evidenced by the encroaching low level stratocu
in its wake, which will be a persistent feature into the
overnight. As the low level flow transitions to the northwest,
convection will turn into a modest northwest flow event for snow
showers in the higher elevations. Have scaled back the totals
for the mountain valleys tonight, thinking the best snowfall
will be on the far western slopes. Moisture depth gets a little
thin around dawn, and may have to transition to freezing
drizzle. End the upslope and clouds with the commencing of warm
air advection at 925mb after 18Z Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Quiet weather Sunday night and Monday with temps trying to
moderate ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will
slowly work across the area Monday night and most of Tuesday
with a good chance of showers. The showers will tend to wane
late Tuesday as the front slips south of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

The upper level trof will amplify over the region midweek with a
impulse rounding the base into the area on Wednesday. Overrunning
precip will break out as the day progresses, especially across
southern zones. Enough cold air should be in place for some wet
snow in the higher elevations.

Upper level ridging will build into the region to end the
workweek providing for a significant warmup come Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 AM Sunday...

Upslope northwest flow keeps low level moisture in place today,
bringing MVFR ceilings across the lowlands, and IFR ceilings
along with MVFR to IFR snow showers, to the mountains. The snow
showers should diminish this morning, and the ceilings will mix
higher, to VFR, by this afternoon. These clouds are likely to
scatter out tonight, as high pressure builds into the area,
cutting off the upslope flow, although flow aloft will remain
light northwest through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Categories may fluctuate in rain and snow
showers early this morning. Timing of ceiling changes may vary,
including timing of improvement later this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 03/19/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    M    L    L    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in precipitation Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM



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