Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 151941
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm
front this evening. Cold front Tuesday night. Another possible
system to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

The dry air has struggled to make inroads into southeast OH and
northern WV. Further south, low stratus, fog, and patchy
drizzle has greeted folks. While the drizzle will taper off and
the fog will lift...the low clouds will persist through the
remainder of the day. There is hope that northern areas can lift
the bases a bit this afternoon. Temps have moved little since
last night with our far reaches into southeast OH seeing temps
near the freezing mark. We will await the arrival of that pesky
front late this afternoon and evening with increasing isentropic
lift once again providing for a miserable night of periods of light
rain, fog, and low ceilings. Across Perry/Morgan/Athens...temps
may creep down to freezing tonight but chances of precip making
into those counties overnight are too small to carry any
freezing rain hazard. Something to monitor for though.

We will see upper heights begin to build on Monday, but the old
front/inverted trof should provide enough low level forcing for
areas of light rain in the morning. This should taper off in the
afternoon as southeast flow near the surface develops and
shakes the off the inverted trof. This should also allow for the
low stratus to finally lift in earnest. It will be much warmer
with highs running a good 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

A band of showers in advance of an approaching cold front will move
across the area late Monday night into Tuesday. The weak cold front
itself should move through Tuesday night. Some cooler air is
expected behind the front on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

Models continue to have considerable differences in timing with
systems for the end of the week and into the weekend, although
agreeing on unseasonably warm weather. Therefore, forecast
confidence in precipitation chances at any particular time are low.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

Drier air advecting in from the north will allow northern TAF
sites to see improvement to perhaps VFR CIGS this afternoon.
Meanwhile, southern TAF sites will struggle to improve into
MVFR. Areas of light rain will move in late this afternoon from
west to east in association from the return of an old frontal
boundary. This may allow CIGS to briefly improve into MVFR
across southern terminals, before CIGS and VSBY lower once
again into IFR and then LIFR. This process will be delayed until
after 06Z for northern TAF sites.

The boundary/inverted trof will become overwhelmed by developing
southeast flow near the surface across the entire region. As
such the extent of light rain will decrease during the day
Monday as well as a slow improvement of CIGS and VSBY.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving and subsequent
deteriorating conditions thru the period may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    L    L    M    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    H    M    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    L    H    M    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

IFR possible Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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