Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 271431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT
ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE
SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER
NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER
BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH
THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR
ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A
MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR
STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED
MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH
FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO
QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING
ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY
BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE
THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JW


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