Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY


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