Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 310854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
445 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLS IN OUR VICINITY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEAK FLOW TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR SEEPS
INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 08Z MID LEVEL ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB VORT MAX SOUTH OF IND.
IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS TODAY...WITH ITS AXIS PASSING PKB AROUND 14Z.
WILL HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR COMES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN ITS WAKE.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT REACHING PKB TO GRAYSON NEAR 00Z MONDAY...THEN
NEAR CKB TO CRW AROUND 06Z MONDAY.  DIVERGING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  GLOBAL GFS AND ECMWF NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION REFORMING DURING
THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.  00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM MODELS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. WITH
FRONT APPROACHING AND INSTABILITY INCREASING...WILL TRY TO INCREASE POPS DURING THE
18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME MAINLY SE OF THE OHIO RIVER. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 35 THSD.
WILL MENTION SOME DOWNPOURS IN THE LIKELY POP AREAS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...CAN HANDLE 1 TO 2 INCHES.

INSTABILITY WANES AFTER 03Z...BUT WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR CKB TO CRW LINE...WILL
KEEP POPS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SE OF THE OHIO RIVER.  CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER
NEAR AND WEST OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CWA IN FAIRLY WEEK FLOW WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY STUCK JUST TO OUR SE.
HAVE HIGHEST POPS TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...CLOSER TO THIS BOUNDARY. HAVE LIKELY POP ON MONDAY AND
HIGH CHANCE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/VA. POPS
TAPER OFF TO DRIER WEATHER ACROSS FAR NW AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
FILTER INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 500MB TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND THE
CLOSED LOW THEN DRIFTS AROUND TO OUR SW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE EAST OF THE
OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST HANDLING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WHERE IT RAIN SATURDAY EVENING.  THINKING ELKINS MAY
IMPROVE BY DAWN.

WEAKENING MID LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE IN INDIANA AT 06Z
COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS REACHING OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES 08Z TO 10Z...THEN MOVE THROUGH
WV 10 TO 15Z.  HAVE CLOUDS AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT INCREASING WITH THAT FEATURE.

HARD TO TIME ADDITIONAL ROUNDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  HAVE MAIN CHANCES AFTER 19Z EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WV...RATHER THAN SE OHIO.  CEILINGS
2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY AOB 3 MILES IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION...BUT KEPT
TAFS MOSTLY MVFR VSBY.

INSTABILITY WANES SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THINKING SHOWERS WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN WV AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASING FORECAST ON THE FRONT STALLING NEAR
CKB-CRW BY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...OR 06Z MONDAY.  LOWER CEILINGS BEHIND
THE FRONT AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT MAY FORM IN SE OHIO 03Z TO 06Z MONDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HAVE WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS 3 TO
4 THSD FT 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS
INTO THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING THE LOWERING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT COULD VARY AS THE FRONT SLOWS.

.AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

IFR IN CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB



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