Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
621 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system overnight with scattered showers. Unseasonably warm
through the work week with another weak system Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 605 PM Saturday...

Reworked the POPs tonight based on the latest runs of the RAP
and HRRR, while still using the NAM component in a blend. Upper
level deformation zone will keep the northern extent of the
showers from going too far north into Perry and Morgan counties.


As of 1250 PM Saturday...

Models show a weak system with an upper level trough moving across
the area overnight, producing some showers. Dynamics are weak enough
that models are a bit varied on the placement of showers at any
particular time, so will generally stay with just high chance pops
in the most likely areas. With clouds remaining through the night,
will keep low temperatures are the warmer side of MOS guidance.

A stratus deck behind the system should lift into a cumulus deck on
Sunday as high pressure builds in, allowing for some sunshine,
especially in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system
looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. I hedged
toward the slower NAM given the stout upper ridge that will be
in place ahead of this system. Still feel many southern areas
hit or surpass 70 degrees Monday and possibly Tuesday, despite
the abundance of high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

The very warm pattern continues through the week. A weak system
passes Wednesday. This prolonged stretch of warmth will allow
for an early start to budding and blooming of some varieties
trees/vegetation. They looks to be a brief respite from the
warmth over the weekend as a colder air works in.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 605 PM Saturday...

Upper level system will continue to overspread scattered showers
across the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians through
tonight. Ceilings to lower to MVFR with brief MVFR in showers.
BKW would be most prone to going down to IFR ceilings, and have
this in the TAF from 07Z to 12Z. This takes the overall
confidence down somewhat, however. Southern terminals will
settle in the 1-2kft range later tonight.

Rain ends with cumulus field developing Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon, then medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lower clouds could vary. Brief
IFR in showers is possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26


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