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000
FXUS61 KRLX 190704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
304 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. REMNANTS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ADDS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEW FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
COMMENCES. WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PW VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 1.4 INCHES...AND THE LIGHT FLOW...EXPECT STORMS TO BE SLOW
MOVERS..AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ONCE AGAIN. SO FAR COVERAGE HAS
BEEN RATHER SPOTTY...AND GROUND SEEMS ABLE TO HANDLE THE
DOWNPOURS...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION OF LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES
IN HWO. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV...AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER ALONG EASTERN SLOPES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US....AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE MID OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK SOME. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. POP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC/ECMWF TRENDING TO GO WITH A STRONGER/FASTER UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...AND UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY WHEN THE ACTUALLY FRONT CROSSES.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA RIDGES IN...WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS FILTERING IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z...CREATING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING AT KBKW. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z...WHEN SOME LIFTING OF CIGS MAY OCCUR.

WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE 2 TO 3 THSD FT BY 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY...THUS...COULD BE
SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...PARTICULARLY 10-15Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN...PARTICULARLY AFTER
16Z...AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY AROUND 00-02Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND HEIGHT OF CEILINGS 09Z TO 15Z
SUNDAY COULD VARY. DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF FOG COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/19/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IF PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR FOG
POSSIBLE FOR DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL