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000
FXUS61 KRLX 150001
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
801 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND STALLS OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SCHC THUNDER INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN WV ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MENTION OF
THUNDER WANING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE YES/NO FACTOR OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY.

WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ALOFT...AND WILL FIND THE CWA IN VERY
DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE COME THIS TIME WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...WARM FRONT IS LIKELY BACK IN INDIANA/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL DECK FROM WARM
FRONT/VORT MAX NOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD LINGER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...WITH MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP HINTS OF PVA RUNNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME HINTS OF PATCHY DEFORMATION OVER
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...BUT TWO INHIBITING PROBLEMS. FIRST IS THE
LACK OF MOISTURE. TONIGHT...WITH SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION
OCCURRING NEAR THE INVERSION AND ANOTHER UP AROUND THE 600MB LEVEL
MAY NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN WEAK ELEVATED ASCENT. SECOND IS
A SECOND INVERSION ALOFT IN THE 750-700MB LAYER. CANNOT DECISIVELY
SAY THAT NO PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND...BUT THE BET ON
THIS FORECAST IS NOTHING MEASURABLE WILL FALL. CAPPED THE POPS AT
14 PERCENT AND ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE 14 VALUE. SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY WET SURFACES FROM PERRY TO POCAHONTAS.

COLUMN RETURNS TO A PRIMARILY DRY STATE WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
RELATIVELY HIGH BASED CUMULUS IN PLACE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
850MB TEMPERATURES HIT THE UPPER TEENS...TRANSLATING TO A JOLT IN
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENTERING INTO UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. CULPRIT IS A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE CWA WED
NIGHT. BRING THIS INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING
BACK TO N CWA BOUNDARY THU. THERE ARE SOME DIFF AMONGST THE MDLS
PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AT ANY GIVEN
TIME. HEDGED FCST ON MESO NAM VS GFS. WILL CARRY A DIURNAL TREND IN
POPS...LKLY IN AFTN...CHC OVERNIGHT. PW ARND 1.4 INCHES POOLED ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS
AND QUASI STATIONARY NATURE TO BOUNDARY...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
TRAINING FOR ANY WATER CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY...LEAVING THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO WERE USED WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PA. SOUTHWEST
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S IN HIGHER TERRAIN...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW...CANT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY PKB/CKB/EKN...VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MFVR AND PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING IN SE OH AFTER 18Z AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE OHIO MAY BE
DIFFERENT FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 05/15/13
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LONGER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...SL/JM