Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041830 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 230 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... EVER PRESENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SPELL MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ALONG A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE SAME. NOT GOING TO GIVE UP ON THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS IN TERMS OF POPS...AND WILL KEEP THEM IN CHANCE...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY OVER DONE. ONE OF THE CHANGES WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...MIXING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS COOLER BY A SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMPERATURE GAP FROM THE LOWLANDS THAN NORMAL...KEEPING PLACES LIKE SNOWSHOE 15-20 DEGREES OFF THE LOWLAND PACE AND BKW CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AREA REMAINS IN A WARM HUMID PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE. THUS...THE PATTERN OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE A GOOD INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION. FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED TO HUG THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVER WEEKEND...AND KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONVECTION MAINLY CENTERED ON THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 17Z TODAY...SO WILL PUT VCTS/CB IN AT CKB AND EKN. USING LARGELY A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WHEN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. BASED THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT ON DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE TERRIBLE SIDE...DUMPING ALL RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS INTO LIFR WHEN THERE TENDS TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AND BOUNCING OF THE OBS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS IF STORMS FORM/MOVE TOWARDS TERMINALS AT ANYTIME. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING NEXT SEVERAL NTS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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