Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201335 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 935 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPT/RH GRIDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE DEEMED NECESSARY. DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST IN LOWER TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS...AND DRY ATMOSPHERE...FELT AN SPS WAS WARRANTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DRY 850 MB AIR TODAY AND SOME SUNSHINE...WILL INCREASE THE DAYTIME WINDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WILL ALSO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING DRY. APPEARS SOME PREFRONTAL ACTION TUESDAY MORNING WITH BAND OF SHRA AND THUNDER WITH FRONT TO FOLLOW. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. CONTINUED THAT TREND FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. SOME PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOL DAY TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU ESPECIALLY N WV...WHICH DISSIPATES LATE WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL TROF AND SUBSEQUENT WAA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/SL SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY

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