Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 261037
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
A weak frontal boundary slowly dissipates through tonight. Next
system late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak quasi stationary front remains just northwest of the area
as seen in the sfc obs maps. The HRRR and RAP models bring PCPN
during the afternoon hours when the heat is at its peak. Diurnal
heating will combined with abundant moisture to produce showers or
storms during the afternoon hours. A tongue of moisture, evident
in precipitable water around 2 inches continues in place. This can
support isolated heavy downpours through tonight.
Went with the National blend of models for temperatures through
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models in decent agreement with a weak wave combining with daytime
heating to pop some showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Have
generally south to north POP gradient, with the highest POPs across
southern CWA gradually decreasing to the north.
The models are having a bit more trouble agreeing on a more
significant surface low for Thursday into Friday. NAM and GFS show
this wave riding along a warm front and crossing CWA Thursday into
Thursday night... with the GFS a touch faster than the NAM. The
ECMWF is farther NW with the surface low, and 12 to 18 hours slower.
At any rate, with the warm front lifting through the region went
with likely POPs Thursday. Precipitable water values look to be 2+
inches with this wave, so will have to keep a close eye on rainfall
amounts, especially if the warm front is slow moving or becomes
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Used a blend of the ECENS mean...NAEFS mean...AND GEFS mean.
Weighted a bit more toward the ECENS mean than the others. This
would leave the area in the warm sector with plenty of moisture Saturday.
A cold front would then push into the area Sunday. Still
questionable if this front would push south of the area or not for
early next week.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect widespread IFR conditions per the latest high resolution
models, radar and satellite images at least through 12z. Patchy
river valley fog will be possible along deeper valleys, however
may not be enough to affect CRW and EKN overnight.
Other deterministic models indicate a slight chance for showers or
storms moving overnight across southeast oh into northern WV
overnight. Bufkit soundings show high CAPE, low sheared
environment for thursday afternoon. Coded VCTS at most sites for
now as they are difficult to predict either storms will hit an
airport or not this far.
Widespread VFR conditions expected Tuesday
A diffuse frontal boundary will remain over the area through late
Tuesday. Do not see any disturbance that can enhance convection
along the boundary so the chance for showers and storms is low.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect
any TAF site Tuesday afternoon. Timing of Fog formation and
intensity may vary overnight into Tuesday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon
and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week
depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the
previous afternoon or night.