Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 181724 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 124 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light snow showers continue through this evening in the lower elevations and through daybreak in the mountains. Dry and breezy Tuesday with increased risk of wildfire spread.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 PM Monday... Cold air crossing the Upper Great Lakes is yielding enhanced low level moisture across the region today. The surface layer remains quite dry in the lowlands making it a tough journey to the surface for any snowflakes falling out of the clouds based around 3000 to 4000 ft, but spotty flurries/snow showers remain possible through early this evening with little to no accumulation expected. In the mountains, upslope enhancement will yield a little better chance of some light accumulating snow, but the combination of warm ground temperatures, a fairly shallow dendritic growth layer and turbulent boundary layer flow should limit any accumulations to an inch or two. As skies clear overnight and winds lighten somewhat, will see temperatures dipping into the upper 20s across most of the lower elevations. While the growing season has not yet been declared open, those with sensitive vegetation that has emerged early are urged to take protective actions from the cold. Winds shift more westerly overnight tonight in response to surface low pressure approaching the Upper Great Lakes while surface high pressure settles into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Channeled flow between these features will yield breezy conditions Tuesday with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 20 to 30 mph. Coincident with these gusty winds, we will be mixing into some very dry air aloft yielding relative humidity values dipping into the mid 20s by Tuesday afternoon. While the greenup is underway, dead fuels remain quite dry and prone to carrying fire. In coordination with land management agencies and our neighboring offices, will issue a fire danger statement with afternoon to hopefully limit overnight burning and any holdover risk heading into Tuesday. As a reminder, fire season laws are in effect with open burning restricted to varying degrees during the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Strong northwest flow behind exiting upper-level trough keeps gusty winds around through the day Tuesday, with a wind advisory looking likely across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties late Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow showers will be tapering off Tuesday morning with a few residual upslope snow showers lasting into the afternoon. Tuesday will be 7 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday with the lowlands reaching the low 50s in spots. Secondary shortwave trough(clipper system) moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Reintroducing chances for snow and rain showers across the mountains Tuesday night. Additional snow accumulations look iffy, but minimal snowfall is possible across the West Virginia Ski Country. Fire weather could be a concern Tuesday afternoon as RH values are forecasted to be in the 20s and lower 30s across the forecast area and winds will be gusty; recent moisture that will be picked up today could mitigate this threat though. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Largely drying out Wednesday night and Thursday with high pressure at the surface underneath strong northwest flow. Thursday afternoon will certainly be a concern for fire weather as breezy to gusty northwest winds will mix down drier air, creating afternoon RHs forecasted to be in the 20s. Models are starting to agree on a track for our weekend system. The southern stream trough looks to track across the deep south on Friday, then moves northeast through the Piedmont of VA/NC/SC and the DelMarVa. Without a direct hit from this system, kept chance PoPs Friday through Saturday, due to the proximity of the low and energy from the system moving over. There does appear to be a brief window of snow showers that may occur across SE Ohio and the northeastern mountains Friday morning, but at this time confidence is low that there will be impacts or accumulations. Guidance is trending for warmer temperatures later this coming weekend/start of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 PM Monday... Broken to overcast ceiling 030-050 streaming off the Upper Great Lakes will produce light snow showers through this evening. Could briefly see some visibility reductions with this activity, but will remain most VFR in just flurries. Any snow showers taper off this evening with skies progressively clearing from west to east during the night. Winds northwesterly 8-12KTs with gusts up to around 20KTs tonight. Gusts should fall off tonight with winds switching more westerly, before breezy conditions resume during the day Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate. TAF amendments may be needed Monday afternoon for MVFR or even IFR conditions, as scattered snow showers target individual sites. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/LTC NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...JP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.