Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310244 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1044 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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1030 PM UPDATE... ALL THUNDER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE I64 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD INTO THE COALFIELDS. IN FACT...SEEING SOME FURTHER REGENERATION ALONG A VERY DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO INDIANA. NEW CELLS GOING UP ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OHIO...JUST WEST OF CMH AT THIS TIME...APPARENTLY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX. STILL EXPECTING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY END BUT HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH 06Z. ACTIVITY WEST OF CMH WILL BRUSH THE NW ZONES SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...THOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE RUNNING INTO FAR LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING REALIZED FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. ALSO ADJUSTED CORRESPONDING SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND NEAR-DAWN HOURS...SAVE ANY VERY LOW STRATUS WHICH MAY FORM IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT. 730 PM UPDATE... FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES. MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12 HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING ACROSS. THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR CKB SOUTHWESTWARD TO CRW...THEN WEST TO NEAR HTS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS...BUT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH HARDER AT THE LOWLAND TERMINALS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING RAIN...AND AS A RESULT ARE ALREADY AT ABOUT A 2-4 DEW POINT DEPRESSION. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/31/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H L L L L L L L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H M H M H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/50 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...50

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