Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011957 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 357 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/FLOW INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT STREAKS ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO LIFT/BREAKUP TODAY LENDING TOWARDS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO LOW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SITUATED IN EASTERN OHIO. REGARDLESS...MOST STRATUS IS BREAKING/LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK... SO WE STILL MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE CURRENTLY CLOUDY PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA NEAR KENNA AND BUFFALO. A RETURN TO FOGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET ON THE WEATHER FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE THIS PERIOD AS L/W TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS FROM THE WRN CONUS TO THE ERN CONUS...DRIVING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MAIN FEATURE DOWN ON FRI BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HOURS. THIS MOVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS...HAVE ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE THUNDERSTORM FCST GIVEN 50 KTS MEAN MID LAYER FLOW...A GRANDE OF CAPE AND STRONGLY FORCED LIFT. LEAD S/W TROUGH OVER UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON LIFTS OUT...SECOND S/W TROUGH OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MAIN TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI NT AND SAT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY CLOSING OFF JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES FRI NT. THIS GIVES RISE TO COLDER SOLN FOR SAT...WITH AT LEAST SCHC POPS ACROSS THE N AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOT YET CODED...BUT THE VERY HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD SEE THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE UPCOMING 2014/2015 SEASON GIVEN H85 TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO -2C. BLENDED IN THE MET FOR LOWS THU NT AND HIGHS FRI...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THU NT AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FRI WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. BLENDED IN NAM / GFS MODEL DATA FOR FRI NT AND SATURDAY AS THE SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE CHARGES THROUGH. ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP SAT AND SAT NT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD THIS PERIOD AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W SLOWLY RETREATS. THIS RESULTS IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWED WPC IDEA OF CHANCE POPS MON INTO TUE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN THEREAFTER. BLENDED IN WPC TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FCST.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS FROM KHTS TO KCKB. MOST SHOULD ERODE AWAY BEFORE NIGHTFALL. WITH FORECASTED CLEARING SKIES WE ARE BRINGING IFR FOG TO THE VALLEY TAF SITES. THOUGH THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXTENT AND TIMING BECAUSE OF THE SLOW BURN OFF TODAY. PLUS GENERAL ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY HUMID AND CLOSE TO SATURATION AT MULTIPLE LEVELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A STRATUS DECK COULD REFORM AND SLIDE SOUTH...REMOVING THE FOG THREAT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JW

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