Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 192052 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 352 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Active pattern returns with a warm front crossing Friday, followed by a stronger system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... Midlevel clouds and cirrus are arriving out ahead of a warm front this afternoon. Up north at Parkersburg through Clarksburg, the edge of the low level stratus is slowly inching northward, but with no sunshine so far today I had to pull back high temperatures in these areas to the upper 40s. They still have a chance to see some late afternoon sun, but overall temps will not warm too much from current values. Clouds will continue to increase ahead of an approaching warm front through the evening. Overall, I just tweaked the timing for the arrival of rainfall just a bit later from the previous forecast. Rainfall will be light with widespread QPF amounts of a quarter to a third of an inch. Rainfall will end from south to north starting tomorrow morning, but the Northern Mountains will likely see light rain continue well into the afternoon. After the warm front passes we will warm up well into the 60s tomorrow across a large portion of the forecast area. Depending on the amount of clearing tomorrow, some areas will likely climb into the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 340 PM Thursday... Very mild period in the wake of a warm front lifting through on Thursday. Low cloud and patchy fog around early Saturday morning should mix out by late morning. However, a warm front will bring an increase in clouds again, along with the chance for showers by late Saturday. Models are not as focused with precipitation associated with this front as in earlier runs, and the rainfall is not likely to amount to much. A major piece of energy coming eastward out of a long wave trough over the western U.S., barrels across the gulf states Sunday and Sunday night. Rain overspreads the area on Sunday in response to this system. The coverage becomes less certain Sunday night for different reasons. With its western track, the NAM would shoot a dry slot northward into the area. In sharp contrast, the global models continue trending farther south and east with the track, actually trying to shunt precipitation to the south of the area. No important deviations from guidance on temperatures as the January thaw continues, other then to lean on the high side on highs this weekend.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 PM Thursday... Upper level low moves up the east coast Monday through Tuesday. While the models continue to trend eastward with the track, rain still appears likely on Monday as surface low pressure tracks northeastward through eastern NC and southeast VA. Precipitation gradually pulls out / tapers off Monday night and Tuesday, as the system moves northeastward, away from the area. While the system will not have any access to fresh cold air, cold air produced dynamically aloft may be enough for snow across the higher terrain by early Tuesday morning. A cold front may bring rain showers Wednesday. There may be light showers Thursday across the north and in the mountains, in west to northwest upslope flow, a Lake MI trajectory, and weak disturbances on the cyclonic shear side of the upper level flow. While it will still be too warm for snow outside the mountains for most part on Thursday, the Wednesday front does signal the beginning of a change back to colder weather, with a long wave trough position in the east, and strong west coast ridging developing. Temperatures close to guidance and still a little above normal. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1255 PM Thursday... Still some MVFR and IFR ceilings holding on across the north this afternoon. However, the stratus continues to erode and should see PKB and CKB come up within the next hour or two. A warm front that is currently stationed across Central Tennessee will continue to push northward this evening. This will spread mid level ceilings across the area at first, but decks will lower after midnight from south to north. Look for mostly MVFR conditions with rain through the morning hours Friday. Although current TAFs don`t contain IFR tomorrow morning, it is possible that in the heavier pockets of rain we will see IFR for ceiling and visibilities. Conditions will start to improve towards the end of the forecast period once the warm front pushes through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thresholds lower ceilings and visibilities tomorrow morning with approaching warm front may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY L H L L L L M M M H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday as another system passes to our south.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MPK

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