Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251355 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 855 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. THE COLD PARADE CONTINUES WITH CLIPPERS THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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855 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... BUSY WX PATTERN ROLLS ON... WILL BE TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DROPPING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING TROF. IT STILL APPEARS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TODAY WILL FOCUS ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW. WHERE THIS WARM FRONT SETS UP IS CRITICAL IN TERMS OF NOT ONLY QPF BUT EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE. THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS S OH AND EXTEND INTO N WV THIS AFTERNOON. AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES...LIGHT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...FIRST ACROSS OUR N SE OH ZONES AND THEN OVERSPREADING THE N FRINGES OF OUR N WV ZONES...INCLUDING PKB/CKB/EKN FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT RAIN AT ONSET...SAVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH CO. THINK ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP THERE WOULD BE MEAGER THRU 00Z. A DECENT SPIKE IN TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW VA/COAL FIELDS/KANAWHA VALLEY/AND UP ALONG AND E OF THE I79 CORRIDOR TO THE W SLOPES...COURTESY OF S TO SE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN UPPER 40S WITH MAYBE A 50 SHOWING UP ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS AND KANAWHA VALLEY. BY THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING THRU E KY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS LAGGING A LITTLE BEHIND. THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ORIENTED ITSELF MORE INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF ACROSS WV. AS SUCH...THE LOW LEVEL WARM WEDGE WILL HOLD THRU 06Z EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERRY CO. A FEW INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. PERRY COUNTY IS TRICKY AS JUST A 20 MILE SHIFT IN OVERALL TRACK TO THE S WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES VS 2 TO 3. THE NAM AND SREF WOULD HAVE ONLY N PERRY REACHING CRITERIA WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE GENEROUS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER END ACROSS N PERRY. WILL START IT AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AND RUN IT UNTIL NOON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE AS THE LOW TRACKS THRU S WV AND INTO VA AND THE UPPER TROF CROSSES...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BEGIN TO COLLAPSE THRU SE OH AND NE KY DURING THE PREDAWN HRS...WHERE A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THRU 12Z...MAINLY ACROSS REMAINDER OF SE OH ZONES. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE BY 12Z LOOKS TO BE JUST E OF THE OH RIVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PRECIPITATION FROM THE CLIPPER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL OVER TURNING AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A POSSIBILITY. MODELS SHOWING THAT MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH IN THE WEST...SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALSO MOVES OVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASINGS MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOSE TO WPC THINKING WITH POSITIVE PNA THIS PERIOD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN AGAIN THU-THU NT AND SAT NT. THE ONE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST MON-TUE. HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER TUE NT...AND THEN SAILS ACROSS ON WED. WARMING ALOFT WED MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THU...IN THE SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A GOOD BUT BRIEF UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT THU NT. WHILE STILL AT A DISTANCE WHERE THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX...THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY BE MORE INTERESTING THAN JUST A CLIPPER. LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE CLOSE TO WPC. THE GFS40 WAS EMPLOYED THU MORNING AND SAT MORNING...THE BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHTS. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CREATE BUST POTENTIAL IN THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOOKING AT GENERALLY 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT CIGS THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KEKN/KCKB...WHERE LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD. EXPECT KEKN AND KCKB TO SNEAK INTO LOW END VFR CIGS 15 TO 17Z. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TODAY...WITH PRECIP BREAKING OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...CLIPPING KPKB AND KCKB LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THIS EVENING AND ORIENT ITSELF MORE INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF ACROSS WV....AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRAVERSES KY AND INTO S WV TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS/VSBY LOWERING INTO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS SE OH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR OR WORSE ALONG WITH VSBY. THIS TRANSITION SLOW WORKS SE TO HTS/PKB BY END OF TAF PERIOD. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE N MOUNTAINS WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S FOR KCRW/KHTS/KEKN AND SSE FOR KBKW IN THE WARM SECTOR. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY NE FOR KPKB/KCKB TODAY. FLOW GENERALLY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIGS MAY STAY LOW END MVFR FOR KEKN/KCKB INSTEAD OF IFR...BEFORE LIFTING LATER THIS MORNING. TIMING PRECIP AND THUS AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY VARY THIS EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...KY...AND THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...30

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