Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171019 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... BUMPED UP THE I-64 CORRIDOR HIGHS A NOTCH TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SIG WX NIL. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS STEERING 500MB REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER...AND WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENT. SHOULD END UP NEAR NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ADVERTISED WEAK COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED SPLIT BECOMES EVEN MORE DEFINED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE COLD FRONT TOWARD US...WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...MOISTURE INFLOW INTO OUR SYSTEM AND UPPER DYNAMICS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED. THE FRONT WILL SO WEAKEN THAT IT WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUS...NOT MUCH AT ALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO OUR AREA...AND WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS CONFINED TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH COOLING AT ALL FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BACK TO AROUND THE SIMILAR 70 DEGREES FORECAST ON FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70 UNDER MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE. NIGHTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY CONTINUED WPC THINKING WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOUR DAYS ON THE WHOLE WITH A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN STORE...DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OP GFS QUICKER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF. CONTINUED TO CAP POPS AT MID/HIGH CHANCE WITH THAT FEATURE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR-SEASONAL THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS FOR THE LOWLANDS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S AND MINS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOW 50S DURING THE LATER HALF. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CAVU/VFR. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING...AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CIRRUS INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS MAY ALSO LOWER FROM 250 TO 200...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANGE TO WARRANT MORE THAN ONE LINERS IN MOST CASES TODAY. SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT FOR BKW. GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .CLIMATE... THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 16TH OF APRIL WAS TIED AT HUNTINGTON WV THIS MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ CLIMATE...26

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