Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281753 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 155 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO. DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL LIKELY POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT ON THE RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO. AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW. HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV. MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE CONVECTION...THAT CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY SHOWN IN THE POINT TAFS. WILL PUT TSTMS IN VCNTY IN THE TAFS...UNTIL WE SEE THE STORMS THREATENING THE TERMINAL. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 30 TO 34 THSD...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11 THSD. COULD EASILY SEE SOME SEVERE...AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. HAVE LOCAL IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN TO OVC. 00Z TO 06Z...THUNDERSTORMS WANE BUT SHOWERS LINGER. LOW CEILINGS FORMING. 06Z TO 14Z...FIGURING MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...AND THUS FORECASTING MORE 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG...INSTEAD OF THE AOB 1 MILE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND LOWER VSBY MAY VARY. RAIN INDUCED FOG COULD FORM EARLIER THAN FORECAST TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE GAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...KTB/26

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