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980
FXUS61 KRLX 120659
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
259 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new
work week amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns Monday
night lasting into Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Sunday

After a chilly start, any lingering patchy valley fog should
dissipate in the first few hours after sunrise, and we`ll be
well on our way to a dry, mild, and mostly sunny Mother`s Day.
Highs will be a few degrees below normal, and forecast soundings
would indicate the potential for some 15-20 mile per hour gusts
in the afternoon. Clear skies and gentle S`ly or calm winds will
allow for lows near to a few degrees below normal tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Sunday...

First half of Monday remains mostly dry under the influence of high
pressure off the coast of the Carolinas. A warm front will pass
through early leading to a warm day with temperatures above normal
for most locations; highs in the lower 80s will be common across the
lowlands.

Clouds will gradually increase from south to north during the day
though, due to the aforementioned FROPA and moisture advecting ahead
of a low pressure system over the Midwest. Precipitation chances
increase from the west in the evening with likely PoPs entering
overnight.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday...

The previously mentioned low pressure system slowly moves towards
our area across the Ohio River Valley Tuesday, producing rounds of
showers and some thunderstorms. Currently, parameters do not
support severe weather (lacking instability, weak lapse rates
and convective inhibition in place). There will likely be some
forcing along and closer to the low pressure center as it slowly
crosses the area Tuesday afternoon, this is where the greater
chances for thunderstorms will be.

Heavy rain and possible water issues still stand out as PWATs
look to be around or above 1.30" Tuesday into Wednesday. No
excessive rainfall outlooks are pending, but would not be
surprised to see a marginal risk hoisted in the next day or two
depending on the consistency of the track this low takes.

Low pressure moves off to the northeast on Wednesday as cold
front crosses. Flow will shift out of the northwest and rain
will start tapering off Wednesday evening as high pressure fills
in. Remaining mostly dry on Thursday as a result, but some
upslope showers or an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
for the mountains. A warming trend will also start on Thursday
with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 across the usual lowland
spots.

A second system, somewhat identical to the previous one, arrives
Friday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible and instability looks to be present, as temperatures
will be warmer with much of the forecast area in a warm sector
ahead of the surface low.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Sunday...

Dry weather is expected over the region, with VFR conditions
across the bulk of the area through the TAF period. Some patchy
valley fog has formed in the most sheltered valleys, but many
TAF sites still have wide dew point depressions as of 06z, so it
is questionable if any sites will see fog tonight. As a result,
any fog mention was removed from prevailing weather, but was
kept in TEMPO groups for some of the more susceptible terminals.
Otherwise, once any fog dissipates, the only other thing of note
regarding aviation will be the potential for some 13-20kt gusts
from the northwest during the afternoon hours today.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog through 12z; otherwise,
high confidence.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, coverage, and intensity of fog
tonight may vary from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 05/12/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Areas of IFR visibility or ceilings are possible in rain Tuesday
afternoon and night.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...FK