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000
FXUS61 KRLX 171005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
605 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms possible today into tonight, with a
cold front moving through tonight. Another round of showers and
storms Friday morning with a cold front, cooler for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

Models showing a couple of lines of moisture coming toward the
area today in advance of a cold front. The first one is arriving
now from the west, but the precipitation is falling out of mid
deck, so will be light. The next one arrives in eastern Ohio and
eastern Kentucky around daybreak, pushing eastward through the
area during the day. This could produce some showers and
thunderstorms, but instability is not impressive with effective
layer CAPE values of only 400 to 600.

The more interesting potential arrives with the cold front late
this afternoon into the evening hours. Meso NAM shows effective
layer CAPE in the 1100 to 1300 range in central Ohio with low
level helicity of 200-400. This would allow for large hail and
maybe even tornados. With mid level dry air in place, downbursts
and/or microbursts are also possible. As the cold front pushes
eastward through the area Wednesday night, less energy is
available over Kentucky and eastern West Virginia, so expect to
the storms to gradually weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Mid-level heights rise Thursday in response to transient shortwave
ridging moving east with well above normal temperature values
values for mid April - highs across the lower elevations in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Subsidence with this feature will keep
skies mainly clear with a precipitation free forecast.

Surface low pressure transiting north of the Upper Great Lakes will
yield cold frontal passage early Friday morning into the day Friday.
There is some question to the amount of instability available with
early morning frontal passage - could see some strong to possibly
severe early morning storms with around 35KTs of effective layer
shear if it comes in on the higher end of the spectrum.

The cold front exits east Friday night with any lingering
precipitation becoming confined to the mountains by early Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Temperatures through the weekend will be slightly below normal for
this time of the year. Couldn`t rule out a few diurnally enhanced
showers near the higher terrain each day through the weekend with
the proximity of tropically influenced moisture just to the south,
but most should stay dry. Patchy frost conditions appear possible
across the north Sunday and Monday morning.

Model solutions begin to diverge heading into the new week, but will
probably get a piece of a southern stream system Monday, a northern
stream system Tuesday, or possibly both.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 600 AM Wednesday...

A low level jet will continue to cause spots of low level wind
shear early this morning for eastern West Virginia and
southwestern Virginia.

A line of showers and possibly thunderstorms will then push
across the area today, possibly causing some brief restrictions.
Outside of any showers and thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions.

A cold front will move through tonight. Some thunderstorms with
the cold front could become severe, especially over southeast
Ohio and northwest West Virginia. Some MVFR clouds are possible
behind the cold front Wednesday night, especially over the
mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 04/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR is anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY