Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 302223 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 623 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FAIRLY HUMID WEAK AHEAD...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURES ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL TREND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CWA...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL...WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...AND AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SANDWICHING THE CWA...THINK A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER COULD POP ANY WHERE AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NEAR TERM. FOR TODAY WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO SCATTERED DURING THE BEST DIURNAL TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO CONFINE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EASTERN THIRD OF CWA MONDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED POPUP FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. EVEN WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL BE OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON VARIETY...ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH 20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SANDWICHED BETWEEN TO AREAS OF 500MB SUPPORT...HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...ALTHOUGH ALL IN THE VFR RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER ANYWHERE...BUT THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WHERE VCSH WAS INCLUDED. COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TOO...BUT CHANCES TO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. AMENDMENTS WOULD BE NEEDED SHOULD A SHOWER POP UP NEAR ANY OTHER TAF SITES. WITH CLOUDS LINGERING TONIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FOG. HOWEVER...SHOULD A SHOWER HIT A TAF SITE COULD GET BRIEF IFR FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DEVELOP OR A SHOWER MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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