Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301021 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 618 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND 40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG. FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING. OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY. A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY MUCH. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E AND S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO 06Z. COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED CELL COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN HAZE. HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z WEDNESDAY. CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/30/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...KTB

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