Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 241933 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 333 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 18Z SHOWING SFC FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE WIND SHIFT FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH BKW IN THE PAST HOUR. WATER VAPOR SAT AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST...IT SERVING AS TODAY/S FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL PRECIP SHIELD/LINE IS NOW EAST OF HTS...SHOULD BE THROUGH CRW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TOPS...AND OVER THE EASTERN MTS 21Z-22Z. WILL LAG SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY 00Z FRI. OVERNIGHT...FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW ZONES BY 12Z FRI. CLOUDS ARE A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL...WITH THE LATEST NAM RUN DEPICTING SOME TRAPPED LLVL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHILE THE RAP/S LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE ROBUST SCATTERING OF LLVL MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD NORTH OF OUR AREA LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO EXISTING LLVL MOISTURE...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT 00Z RAOBS IN THOSE AREAS YIELD. IN SHORT...SHOULD WE CLEAR AS EXPECTED...MORE FOG/REDUCED VIS WILL TRANSPIRE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER...FOG WILL BE LESS PREVALENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING OVERNIGHT MINS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST AND MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. FRIDAY...LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. A PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A FLAT-CU SCATTERED DECK...BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WARM ADVECTION ENSUING. MAY BE A MORE ROBUST CU-FIELD IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW ZONES AS A RIPPLE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGHS OF ABOUT 80F FOR THE LOWLANDS PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND ALONG THE WV SIDE OF THE OH RIVER. FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FUSED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI. IFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING LAST IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS USUAL. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON LOW STRATUS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM CKB-CRW AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST. DO BELIEVE THAT EVEN HERE LOW STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER. FOG SHOULD BE A GOOD BET AT LEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER WEST AND NORTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE TEMPS ARE A BIT WARMER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS LOWER. REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY THE 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY NOT COMPLETELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EAST. TIMING...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITY OF VIS REDUCTION MAY VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M L L L M M EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...50

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.