Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 091940 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 240 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Digging upper trough/cold front pushes through tonight. Next upper trough Monday night and then again Tuesday. One last cold shot late week may be the last in this series. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... No major changes to the overall synoptic pattern with the digging of the upper level wave into the Great Lakes, providing the set up for convective snowfall across the CWA. Best lapse rates in the lower levels will be across the southern zones, and the upslope component will be somewhat short lived. Expecting the main accumulations in the mountains, with generally an inch or less over the lowlands. This could be a more robust event if not for the low dewpoint air in place, so sublimation will play a role in decreasing the snowfall, on the front end especially. Upper trough and low level moisture exits Sunday, with a reinforcement to the chilly airmass in place and mid 30s the ceiling for temperatures in the lowlands. Upper level wave descends into the Ohio Valley towards the end of the near term, with some mid level moisture/cloud cover for the region, but no precipitation late Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Saturday... As the system to our north exits, winds shift to the SW overnight on Sunday and continues into Monday. The warm southerly air will warm temperatures back to near normal for this time of year. A cold front pushes across the area Monday night and Tuesday morning. May see a . Forecast guidance is in good agreement with the cold front pushing through overnight Monday and early Tuesday morning. Precip may start out as a mix but everything behind the front should quickly change back to snow.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Saturday... Much colder air filters in behind the cold front on Tuesday and Tuesday night. NW flow with a fetch off the Great Lakes may provide some lake enhanced snow showers from Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. The active pattern continues through the week, with a brief break Wednesday before a clipper system pushes through late in the week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 PM Saturday... Upper level trough digging into the Great Lakes to bring rounds of intermittent snow showers to all terminals beginning after 22Z today, with IFR or worse visibilities a strong bet in said snow showers. In the lowlands, where the POPs are not as high as the mountains, covering the intermittent snow showers in TEMPO groups. Mountain terminals are prevailing IFR in snow. Winds and wind gusts are expected to increase into the overnight period, with gusts in the 15-25kt range, highest again in the mountain terminals. MVFR ceilings persist through the 15Z Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and IFR may vary slightly from forecast. May need IFR in prevailing for lowlands. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L H M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M M H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M M L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M L M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L M M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Another wave Monday night/Tuesday is forecast to have similar, squally snow showers producing IFR conditions, favoring the mountain terminals. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for WVZ520-522-523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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