Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020759 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 159 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY FORECAST REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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