Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 032343 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 643 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS PER LATEST SFC OBS SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO A HEAVY SNOW EVENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THIS EVENING ONWARD...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOODING. FOR THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...WE WILL BLEND THE FASTER GFS/CMC SOLUTION AND THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF. IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SHOW A HEAVY RAIN TO BE FOLLOWED BY A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. SO THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OPF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH...REMAINS IN A WINTER STORM WATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT...NOT FALLING MUCH UNTIL THE COLD FRONT STARTS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOST LIKELY REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 30S DURING WEDNESDAY. SO...THE MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL BE FROM ONE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE IN THE COLDER THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGE TO SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN RECEIVING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER. KEPT THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND THE DURATION OF SLEET THAT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE INTENSITY AND DURATION WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONE OUTLIER PUSHING THE COLD AIR THROUGH FASTER AND SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPING THE AREA A BIT DRIER. OPTED TO STILL CONSIDER THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT BLENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER WETTER SOLUTIONS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE WPC THINKING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GRADUALLY BEING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING SOME WITH THIS FEATURE...BOTH IN SPEED AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL MAKE IT. HAVE ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING THE FIRST AROUND MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THESE TO FEATURES SEPARATE...WHILE GFS DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THEM. ENDED UP WITH A NEAR 50/50 BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR POPS. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS/WINDS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM FRONT OVERHEAD PRODUCING VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF PCPN. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN KY LIFTING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. THE MAJOR CONCERN IS A BROAD LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN OH AND CENTRAL KY ATTM. EXPECT THIS BROAD LINE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING WITH PKB AROUND 03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER REST OF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS HTS BY 06Z...AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT CRW AND CKB AND THE REST OF SITES BY 09-12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A PROLONG PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THIS LINE AS MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR OR WORST ALONG ITS PATH. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION INTO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H M M M M M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M M M M H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNDER RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-026-029. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ009>011. OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ085>087. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ105. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MZ/JW NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ/JMV

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