Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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536 FXUS61 KRLX 101818 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 218 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler weather into the weekend. The chance for rain showers again Saturday afternoon as an upper level system crosses. Temperatures will climb to average or above starting Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Friday... Drier air associated with high pressure was allowing clearing to slowly edge through the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon, while clouds and showers persisted farther east. Improvement should continue into tonight, with the showers ending as a mid-upper level short wave trough exits by sunset. Clearing and light wind tonight per high pressure ridging into the area from the southwest will allow areas of valley fog to form, but there may also be enough residual low level moisture for low clouds to form before dawn Saturday. Either or should dissipate after daybreak Saturday. Clearing tonight may allow night owls to catch some aurora activity if they head away from city lights to somewhere with a clear view of the northern sky. Head to the Space Weather Prediction Center`s website for more info on the G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch: swpc.noaa.gov. Another mid-upper level short wave trough is likely to bring a band of showers across the area from west to east on Saturday. Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes per mid level cooling in concert with daytime heating. A mid level inversion should be just high enough for cells to grow tall enough for charge separation, and even small hail per dry entrainment, which will also promote gusty winds. Echo top temperatures should lower into the -20s C at least across the north. Central guidance reflects surface temperatures modestly below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Friday... Starting Saturday, a clipper type system will approach from the northwest and spread chances for showers and storms into the area by the afternoon. The associated surface low will be forecast to stay just north of the area and rotate toward the east with upper level support sustaining it through the rest of the day. The feature will likely drag a weak cold frontal boundary through which will promote greater chances of shower and storm activity for the late afternoon and evening. By nightfall, the feature will likely pass east away from the area and cut off most of the moisture flux, however a few lingering showers in the northeast mountains are possible for Sunday morning. Thereafter, a surface high pressure system builds in along with weak upper level ridging to reinforce mainly settled weather for the rest of Sunday. More good news may come to fruition as high pressure sustains the calm weather through most of Monday although another system is forecast to approach the area and promote chances for precipitation and thunderstorms by the evening across the western flank of our CWA, spreading into the rest of the area by late evening. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for this period and then starting Monday we climb back to normal or above through the next period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Friday... The aforementioned system which would develop over the midwest will gain momentum and start spreading chances for showers and storms into the area directly perpendicular to us. Activity will start off in the easter sector of the surface low and then as the low shifts eastward it will pass directly over the area and kick out by Wednesday morning. This track will provide opportunities for non-diurnal thunderstorms as well until the low exits. The lows upper level trough support will lag behind and create some lingering precipitation opportunities well into Wednesday until high pressure slides in from the west by Thursday morning. Due to the GFS and EURO being in full sync with the Canadian not too far behind decided to accept central guidance which equated to chances for both days in the form of shower and storm activity. Most of the storm activity will be diurnal in nature so limited thunderstorm potential outside of the afternoons. Bountiful high pressure as a weak surface high and a strong upper level ridge is forecast to build in for Thursday, but the break will be short lived with another system forecast to originate over Texas and will shift north and take a direct flight across the Midwest. This will spread chance of showers and diurnal storms Thursday evening and through Friday. At this point models diverge greatly and felt obligated to accept a blended model solution for the rest of this period which equated to carrying chances for showers and diurnal storm potential through the rest of Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Friday... IFR to low MVFR conditions in the mountains and MVFR conditions at CRW and HTS will gradually improve this afternoon while CKB and PKB should remain VFR. Scattered showers east of the Ohio River may also interrupt improvement with brief MVFR conditions, before dissipating late today. Clearing edging southeastward through the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon will continue across the remainder of the area tonight. This will allow valley fog to form east of the Ohio River, which could lower to IFR. However, low clouds could form with IFR to MVFR ceilings, interrupting the fog. Either or should dissipate after daybreak Saturday, allowing VFR conditions. However, an upper level system is likely to bring showers into the area later Saturday morning, with thunder also possible near or just beyond the end of the TAF period Saturday afternoon. Northwest surface flow, gusty here and there this afternoon, will become calm to light and variable tonight, and then west southwest on Saturday, becoming gusty late Saturday morning. Light north to northwest flow aloft through tonight will become light to moderate southwest on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling and visibility restrictions may vary from forecast. Timing and extent of fog or low stratus tonight may vary from forecast. Winds will fluctuate this afternoon and Saturday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected currently.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/JZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...TRM