Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201120 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 620 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Active pattern returns with a warm front crossing overnight into Friday, followed by a stronger system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 6 AM Friday... Warm front lifting rapidly to the northeast, and extrapolating back edge of rain with the front puts into the southern Coal Fields by 12Z. Most of the precip will exit to the northeast by noon with the front, although there may be a lingering rain shower behind the warm front for a couple of hours. Otherwise, a mostly dry and much warmer afternoon is in store for the area. As of 310 AM Friday... Models in good agreement on a strong Pacific upper trough slamming into the western U.S. today. This will, in turn, cause the central Plains upper low to open up and lift rapidly northeast across the Ohio Valley today. It will move through our region as a negatively tilted upper trough and surface warm front. However, this system will be weakening overall as more energy is used to flatten the strong eastern U.S. upper ridge in place. While dynamics and moisture will certainly be enough to support a band of rain showers with the warm front, the QPF for us will be less compared to what has fallen to our west earlier. This will be due to both the best QPF lifting up thru Ohio and the speed of the system. We look for less than a half inch of rain in general before the rain ends later this morning from southwest to northeast. Thus, no water problems are expected at this time from this system. Behind the warm front will be a surge of warm air despite a lot of clouds, with highs this afternoon into the 60s. While we cannot rule out a stray shower this afternoon in the warm sector, it will mostly be just dry and warm. Tonight will be dry and quite mild in the warm sector with lows again well above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday... 5h ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area on Saturday with slight drying trend to start the period. Then flow trajectories shift more toward the southwest as another warm front surges north with over running precipitation. Atmospheric dynamics weak, and will carry general chance pops and lighter qpf amounts into saturday night. Longwave trough axis then starts a trend to shift eastward late in the period, perpetuated by a decent piece of energy working along the southern periphery across the Tennessee Valley. Models tend to keep best dynamics and moisture across southern half of our forecast area with sfc low passing across NC. Temps will remain well above normal through the period, with all precipitation falling as rain through Sunday night. There even be a few lighting strokes Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday... Surface low tracks across to our south and then rides northward up the East Coast with Mid Atlantic region remaining in a warm airmass. Late in the period we see further indication that a change in the longwave pattern is afoot, with cooler airmass working its way into the upper midwest. By Thursday, we should see temperatures return to more seasonal values. Noted some variation with model solutions regarding the extended period. Thus, used a general model blend throughout the period with a few minor tweaks to pop and temperature values. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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12Z Friday thru 12Z Saturday... As of 605 AM Friday... A warm front will push northward across the area and exit the northern portions by early afternoon. This will provide ceilings lowering into the MVFR range with rain ahead of the warm front, and for a few hours behind the warm front. Some brief IFR conditions are also possible in the heavier rain, especially west of the Ohio River, and possibly on some of the east facing slopes of the northern WV mountains. However, do not think it will be widespread enough to include in the major TAF sites. VFR ceilings will return in the warm sector, spreading from southwest to northeast, except remaining MVFR ceilings in the northern mountains including EKN. Isolated showers can not be ruled in the warm sector this afternoon, especially north, but it will be mostly dry. Light easterly winds early, becoming southerly 5-12 KTS in the warm sector this afternoon. After 00Z Saturday, look for breaks in the clouds. If winds decouple enough and early, there may be some river valley MVFR fog after 07Z affecting most of the major TAF sites, except IFR at EKN after 09Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lowering ceilings and rain restrictions could vary later overnight and Friday morning. Fog development tonight may be more widespread than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 01/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H M L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L M H M L M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M L L H M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H L M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L M L H H H M L L AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday with another system.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JMV

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