Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261837 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 237 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. FRONT WASHES OUT IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... GETS FRUSTRATING AT TIMES DURING THESE MID SUMMER DOG DAYS TO TRY TO BE DETERMINISTIC. AT 17Z SUNDAY...THE FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH. ANALYZING THE FRONT FROM NEAR YNG TO FDY TO FWA. HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT INTO SE OHIO...BUT DEW POINTS STILL LOWER IN INTERIOR WV. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 90 IN MANY OF THE USUAL HOTS SPOTS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF WV. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCE POPS INTO SE OHIO AND NRN WV THIS AFTERNOON...WORKING INTO SW COUNTIES LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONT BECOMING SO DIFFUSE ON MONDAY...HARD TO PICTURE HOW CLOUDS WILL REACT. WILL TRY TO HAVE A LOT OF 2 TO 3 THSD FOOT CEILINGS 12Z TO 16Z BEFORE TRYING TO LIFT. WITH THAT THINKING...TRIED TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY A BIT UNDER 12Z MOS GUIDANCE...MORE TOWARD OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO...THINK HAZE MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY TOWARD HTS-CRW VCNTY. 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THAT HAZE. STILL HAVE THE CHANCE POPS MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY...BUT IF THE WEAK DIFFUSE FRONT LEAVES GRADIENT FURTHER NORTH...MAY NEED SOME HIGHER POPS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY VCNTY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL REMAIN OF THE WEAKENING...DIFFUSE COLD FRONT BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO POSSIBLY KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...ATTENTION IS TURNING TO STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREEING ON SPEEDING THIS FEATURE UP...BUT LEERY TO GO TO FAST AS FRONTS TYPICALLY SLOW DOWN AS THE APPROACH US AND MODELS OFTEN ARE A BIT TOO FAST. SO DID SPEED UP PREVIOUS FORECAST SOME...BUT NOT AS FAST AS CURRENT MODEL SUITE WOULD SUGGEST. HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER PRE-DAWN THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AS WELL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS A BIT...WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOW HAVE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GETS FRUSTRATING AT TIMES DURING THESE MID SUMMER DOG DAYS TO TRY TO BE DETERMINISTIC. AT 17Z SUNDAY...THE FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH. ANALYZING THE FRONT FROM NEAR YNG TO FDY TO FWA. HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT INTO SE OHIO...BUT DEW POINTS STILL LOWER IN INTERIOR WV. MINIMUM OF CU IN THS HTS TO BKW CORRIDOR AT 17Z..WITH STORM DEVELOP IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN SE OHIO ACROSS PKB-CKB CORRIDOR. HAD TO GO WITH VCNTY ON THE 18Z TAFS FOR CKB AND PKB... AND ADJUST WITH RADAR TRENDS. A STORM OR SHOWER MAY REACH FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW AFTER 22Z...DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DID NOT HIT FOG HARD OVERNIGHT...FIGURING ON LAYERS OR PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. ELKINS STILL VULNERABLE IF CLOUDS BREAK. WITH FRONT BECOMING SO DIFFUSE ON MONDAY...HARD TO PICTURE HOW CLOUDS WILL REACT. WILL TRY TO HAVE A LOT OF MVFR CEILINGS 09Z TO 15Z MONDAY...2 TO 3 THSD FOOT CEILINGS BEFORE TRYING TO LIFT...COULD EVEN BE A SHOWER STILL AROUND MONDAY MORNING. STILL HAVE THE CHANCE POPS MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY...BUT IF THE WEAK DIFFUSE FRONT LEAVES GRADIENT FURTHER NORTH...MAY NEED SOME HIGHER POPS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY VCNTY TOWARD PKB TAF SITE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 20Z TODAY TO 03Z MONDAY COULD BE GREATER IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY TIME FRAME MAY BE THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS DO NOT LINGER. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/DTC NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...KTB

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