Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212322 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 722 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front sags south through this afternoon then lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday. System exits Sunday night/Monday. Primarily dry next week and warming. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 720 PM Friday... Made some fairly minor tweaks to POPs tonight, blending toward the HRRR and NAMNest to better time the incoming precip. As of 240 PM Friday... Line of convection working across the southern coalfields. Storm environment showing weak shear and instability in a broad convergent zone ahead of main front. The front will help continue to kick line off to the south and east for the remainder of the afternoon and into in Saturday. We may see a slight uptick in intensity this afternoon in max daytime heating but severe is not expected at this time. Front never makes it too far south as vigorous sfc to mid level wave approaches. Models still showing a fair spread in where best dynamics and qpf set up, with the GFS trending to more southward solution, with lesser amounts of qpf on saturday. The NAM further to the north with both the initial and secondary waves. Hanging our near term forecast more in line with the GFS solution for the time being and will hold off on any headlines, which probably would be more appropriate just outside the period on Saturday, if needed. For temps, used a model blend. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 PM Friday... Expecting an additional inch and a half of rain, give or take, over the southern zones heading into the Saturday night and Sunday time frame with the system eventually making an exit. Inverted trough aloft keeps the need for low end POPs going over the mountains through Monday night, although additional rainfall will be largely negligible. Still have concerns for creek, stream, and river rises from the event, and expect isolated issues. However, the greening of the landscape will assist somewhat in the absorption of rainfall to a degree, and there should be some breaks as well. So the overall precipitation will be a result of duration more than coming all at once from a heavy rainfall producing convective complex. Speaking of convection, threat for thunder is low to none for the short term as rain stabilizes the atmosphere enough to prevent such activity. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM Friday... Models still suggesting isolated POPs mid week with a southwest to northeast moving trough aloft, but it appears that the QPF fields may be overextended in the output a bit. Think that chances for rain are going to be on the low side, and will say with a degree of confidence that significant precipitation in the long term is not expected. In general, it will be a drier period, with temperatures really beginning to ramp up to very warm conditions. Have upper 80s in the lowlands by the end of the week, but dewpoints should stay in the 50s. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 720 PM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms on the increase from south to north tonight into Saturday. Some MVFR visibilities will be possible in the precipitation. If any thunderstorms make it in from the south, could see brief IFR. Clouds will gradually fill in and lower to MVFR and possibly IFR by tomorrow. Generally northerly flow expected through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread MVFR and IFR conditions may occur than currently forecast. May need to add thunder across southern terminals if convection survives into tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible into Sunday with another wave of low pressure. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ SHORT TERM...TRM/26 LONG TERM...TRM/26 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.