Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181751 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 151 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through most of this week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse mid week with showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... Forecast on track. As of 1205 PM Monday... Forecast on track. As of 640 AM Monday... Mainly quiet weather is expected today and tonight with weak high pressure remaining in the region. Highs this afternoon should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday. Have isolated to scattered showers across the mountainous counties of WV this afternoon and evening. Moisture is on the shallow side, but we had some showers POP up Sunday afternoon/evening so do not see a reason why today will be much different. Fairly strong cap in place just above the layer of best moisture, so did not include any thunder mention. For tonight, expect similar conditions to the past few nights with cool temperatures and dense valley fog. As an upper level ripple approaches from the west, do have a bit more cloud cover across the Tri-state area, so fog may not be quite as widespread of dense there. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday... A frontal boundary will stall just to our west on Tuesday. Its vicinity could bring some showers or storms to the area into Wednesday. Jose should remain east of the Atlantic coast, brushing the eastern seaboard per the latest NHC guidance. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge at H500 with weak pressure gradient should result once again in a near calm flow. A continuation of fair forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few diurnal showers still in the offing through mid week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday... By early Thursday, the frontal boundary lift north away from the area allowing high pressure to take control through the end of the week. Despite the high pressure, enough low level moisture and diurnal heating will combine to produce a few mountains showers each day. Also relied on blend for temperature forecast. Temperatures will run unseasonably warm for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 PM Monday... High confidence persistence fog forecast. Have IFR roughly 6-14Z PKB and EKN, 7-14Z HTS and CKB, 9-14Z CRW and none at BKW. The transition from VFR to IFR tonight will be quick, as will the improvement from IFR to VFR Tuesday morning. Otherwise any shower that pops up in the mountains this afternoon is not likely to significantly impact a terminal. A weak upper level disturbance will approach the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning. Clouds associated with it could impact the fog there late. A shower or thunderstorm from that system could get near the Ohio River by early Tuesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog could vary an hour or so, possibly more at HTS if clouds increase from the west early enough Tuesday morning, and at CRW, depending upon when the Elk River fog gets deep enough to envelop the runway. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM

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