Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 022034 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 334 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MODELS AGREE ON A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A GOOD SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL INITIALLY LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...THEN RISE LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW KICK IN AHEAD OF THE RAIN. WENT WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE ON TEMPERATURES. THUS...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WARM UP...TO BRING SOME FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY MORNING. ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH. THE RAIN WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL RATHER MEAGER...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ066-067. KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...JMV

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