-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141100
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
700 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROVIDES CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING DRIER/COOLER
AIR. AFTERNOON HEATING COULD PROMOTE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN A BIT OF A
FALL FEELING. GENERALLY...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE IN THE
70S. A PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE UPPER 40S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST. A NICE DAY IS IN STORE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND NW FLOW OVER THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECT ESSENTIALLY A CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S
FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHING ESE-WARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SIMULTANEOUSLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH RETURN SFC FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND STILL EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
12Z ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WITH S/W TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. INHERITED MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH PERHAPS WARMER TEMPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB NOTED MAINLY
AFTER 06Z SUN.

SUNDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO S/W TROUGH DETAILS WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH BUT ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO LLVL MOISTURE. BEST LLVL MOISTURE AT THIS POINT PROGGED TO
QUICKLY PUSH PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. DID RAISE POPS JUST A BIT UP THIS WAY BUT
STOPPED SHORT OF LIKELY. ALSO ADJUSTED PLACEMENT TO BE A BIT MORE
DETERMINISTIC...HAVING THE HIGHER POPS SE OHIO AROUND 15Z AND MORE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES 18Z-21Z. 925MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO
CELSIUS...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT
FROM MAX MIXING POTENTIAL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S LOWLANDS STILL
ON TRACK...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE FIRST S/W TROUGH PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE NEXT
S/W TROUGH STILL WELL TO THE WEST AT 00Z MON...EXPECT A LULL IN
PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH DECENT LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FEATURE
PRESENT...ELECTED TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT S/W TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FINALLY KICKS THE MOISTURE
EAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR
BOTH POTENTIAL HYDRO AND SEVERE CONCERNS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER BREAK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z
TONIGHT. FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW TO BE INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

PATCHY FOG COULD PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE PREDAWN HOURS
MAINLY CRW...EKN AND PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF IFR FOG COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR FOG POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JR
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...ARJ