Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 260903 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. CLIPPER LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE ALONG AN INVERTED TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOWS OVER OUR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DIMINISH THIS MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FORMED IN A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THIS BAND. CLOUDS TO LINGER AS A COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SE OHIO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEENS ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND PA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL WV AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...OR LIKELIES TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL PCPN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN AS SEEN ON MODELS H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING MINUS 17C. THIS COULD BRING A NON DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING AROUND 20F RANGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS EXTREME SOUTH RANGING INTO AROUND ZERO AND FEW DEGREES BELOW FURTHER NORTH. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS THE REGION MID WEEK. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN TO START...BUT TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MID WEEK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH OHIO. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...AND PW VALUES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BASED ON THE PATH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE A BRIEF DRY SLOT DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WV LOWLANDS...BUT TOO EARLY TO FIGURE THAT IN AT THIS POINT. WITH THE RAIN...COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AT THIS TIME...AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE EVENT...AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THE MODEL RUNS UNTIL THEN...THUS CHANGING THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT TO OUR SOUTH. MVFR TO IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FROM BKW TO EKN LINE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 07Z-12Z TIME FRAME. REST OF TAFS SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A SECOND SYSTEM SWINGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY FOR MORE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS VSBYS AND CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW AND ITS ACCOMPANYING LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS MAY VARY THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 02/26/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INTO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ033>036. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ024- 025. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...JMV/JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.