-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 140601
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROVIDES CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAPID DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON IN THE EAST. KEEPING A FEW
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS MODELS
GENERALLY ARE KEEPING LOW LEVEL RH VALUES UP.

WILL ERR ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH
THE THINKING THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KCRW
AND KCKB MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY SFC LAYER REMAINING MIXED AS
BREEZES CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRIER
AIR...AND INCREASED SUNSHINE. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST LIKE A COOL SEASON SCENARIO...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...GIVEN A
BIT OF A FALL FEELING...GIVEN THAT HIGH FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE WEST SHIFTING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WILL
BRING DRIER AIR...SUNNY SKIES AND AN OVERALL VERY NICE DAY TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO START PUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FINALLY KICKS THE MOISTURE
EAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD FOR
BOTH POTENTIAL HYDRO AND SEVERE CONCERNS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER BREAK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
SHARPLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOR MVFR FOG OVER
DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART.

UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALLOW STRATUS TO FORM DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
ANY LOW STRATUS FORMATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z FRIDAY. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4500 FEET AGL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOWER CATEGORY
CEILINGS THAT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 06/14/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR FOG POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JR
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...ARJ