Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 172334 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 734 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE AND MUGGY AIR BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TROUGH ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE POSTED BY 22Z...INCREASED POPS IN SRN COAL FIELDS FOR INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE TIGHT WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY... COMBINED WITH PW(S) AROUND 2 INCHES. WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL MONITOR CIRCULATION THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...MENTIONED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...FOR SOME SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...FAR NORTH...FRONT STALLING OUT BETWEEN PIT AND MGW. FIGURING THE ASSOCIATED DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE MUCH FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOOKING AT A LARGELY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN A SYNOPTICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO LATE SUMMER WITH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE CHARACTERISTICS. FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE MID ATLANTIC CANNOT YIELD TO ENOUGH STABILITY TO WARRANT NO WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN WEST TO EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT/ OR TWO/ ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NOT CONVINCED...HOWEVER...THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL MAKE IT THROUGH OUR AREA. BEST DEFORMATION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR NOT OPTING FOR LIKELIES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE BEST SYNOPTIC FEATURES SPLIT THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THEME OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EURO POINTS TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RAMIFICATIONS THAT WOULD LIE OUTSIDE OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WINDOW. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FOR LATE AUGUST IN CENTRAL KY MOVES E AND THROUGH SRN WV 12Z THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM INCREASE IN COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE...FURTHER NORTH...PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY IN THE PKB...CKB...EKN CORRIDOR 04Z TO 12Z. VSBY AOB 3 MILES AT TIMES BUT MAY BE VARIABLE DUE TO LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE. LOCAL DOWNPOURS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THAT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 1 THSD FT BKN/OVC AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH BY THE PREDAWN HOURS...THEN ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVING DURING THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO FORM 18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...INCLUDING THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWER DURATION MAY BE LESS THAN INDICATE IN SOUTHERN TAFS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/18/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/JMV SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.