Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271946 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 346 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low drops into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, and then swirls about the area Thursday through Saturday, before pulling away Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1121 AM Tuesday... A broad and strong upper to mid level low pressure system will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight into Wednesday night and Thursday. This low will bring some forcing, but with dry atmosphere, showers or storms will stay in the light side. The low will rotate overhead through the end of the week. A new air mass is in place with dewpoints in the mid 40s, slowly increasing into the 50s late Wednesday. Patchy river valley fog will likely develop over the preferred sites, EKN and CRW overnight. Used the super blend and all blend for temperature through the period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... As has been advertised over the past few days...our weather will be dictated by an anomalous deep upper low dropping south from the Great Lakes. This upper low gradually becomes cutoff by Friday over KY. Rounds of shra and even tsra can be expected thru the period...enhanced by diurnally driven instability amid steep low level lapse rates. Timing these spokes of energy is challenging but enough model agreement for some detail in the POP grids exists. It appears greatest chances for precip will be across the northern half of the CWA and concentrated in the Thursday and Friday time frame. All in all a much welcomed pattern that should give many some beneficial rain. Temps thru the period will run several degrees below average for day time highs...which is quite the reversal over the last several weeks. In fact...some areas in NE KY and W WV may struggle to reach the 60 degree mark Thursday and Friday given the proximity to the significant cold pool and expected shra. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... The pesky upper low will gradually track north over the weekend...with less of an influence on the sensible weather as the days progress. This will result in a dry pattern taking hold again with temperatures moderating to normal and eventually above normal. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM Tuesday... Satellite and radar image show clear skies across the entire area. A deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region, will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight. Expect mostly clear skies tonight. With radiational cooling, IFR/LIFR river valley fog will develop most likely at EKN, CRW, and HTS. Any dense fog should dissipate by 13-14Z. Widespread VFR conditions expected Wednesday. However, vorticity maxes around the low`s center could bring some forcing and chances for showers or storms Wednesday night into Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of any fog overnight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MPK/30 AVIATION...ARJ

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